MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for January Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 09, 2024 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct |
| Tested Years | 18 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 35 | |
| Closed Higher | 9 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 22 | 15 | 19 | 23 | 19 | 19 | 18 | |
| Exceeded High | 7 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 14 | 17 | 22 | 14 | 14 | 10 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 78% | 87% | 94% | 89% | 82% | 93% | 89% | 96% | 74% | 74% | 56% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 12.89% | 13.66% | 11.01% | 10.14% | 10.53% | 9.18% | 9.67% | 12.88% | 15.35% | 9.33% | 6.58% | |
| Max Increase | 22.43% | 34.99% | 27.05% | 21.59% | 33.70% | 17.40% | 18.83% | 79.27% | 47.85% | 22.95% | 11.63% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 14 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 16 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -0.85% | -1.98% | -2.10% | -2.80% | -1.82% | -1.90% | -2.24% | -2.79% | -1.88% | -3.37% | -1.73% | |
| Max Decline | -6.27% | -9.46% | -13.58% | -9.03% | -6.16% | -6.31% | -14.00% | -13.44% | -12.35% | -11.87% | -5.06% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 | |
| 2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
| Action | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | ||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
