Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home MRCI Online
Print
New Windows

MRCI's Scenario Study

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of May 09, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   23 21 21 19 24 17 25 24 16 17 25
Exceeded High   17 17 14 13 18 15 19 16 12 13 19
Scenario Percentage   74% 81% 67% 68% 75% 88% 76% 67% 75% 76% 76%
Avg Max Increase   11.12% 10.48% 13.24% 9.76% 7.07% 10.20% 10.00% 9.76% 13.52% 12.70% 6.05%
Max Increase   39.42% 27.83% 69.44% 51.45% 28.43% 22.17% 18.98% 24.14% 34.27% 32.65% 14.61%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 13 16 15 16 18 17 14 18 8 7
Avg Max Decline   -1.67% -1.98% -1.47% -3.85% -2.12% -2.38% -1.92% -2.44% -2.43% -1.93% -0.70%
Max Decline   -5.02% -6.38% -3.74% -10.77% -9.39% -5.59% -5.22% -9.47% -6.21% -3.28% -3.60%
Avg Days to Max Decline   13 7 9 9 7 6 8 12 10 6 2
2024 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes     Yes      
Action       Yes No No     No      
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 24 23 26 21 28 20 21 29 28 20
Penetrated Low   15 21 20 18 16 23 16 17 26 18 12
Scenario Percentage   71% 88% 87% 69% 76% 82% 80% 81% 90% 64% 60%
Avg Max Decline   8.33% 7.52% 9.32% 8.46% 8.74% 8.40% 7.27% 6.45% 6.28% 7.79% 4.14%
Max Decline   12.59% 18.57% 17.54% 26.20% 42.77% 32.62% 17.48% 14.46% 24.49% 21.10% 9.40%
Avg Days To Max Decline   21 23 17 17 18 15 20 17 15 11 9
Avg Max Increase   -1.93% -2.56% -2.60% -2.28% -2.17% -1.78% -3.68% -3.67% -3.00% -2.84% -2.01%
Max Increase   -5.75% -5.96% -12.50% -9.09% -6.77% -7.87% -10.07% -15.62% -8.74% -6.75% -5.02%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 12 6 8 5 4 10 12 11 7 2
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes       Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes No       Yes Yes   Yes Yes Not Yet
High 58.95 55.35 52.93 58.21 64.53 63.85 62.36 56.60 53.32 52.30 49.65 48.45
Low 50.38 49.18 44.49 46.09 57.15 57.13 54.67 49.92 48.56 47.56 44.89 43.57
Close/Last 53.89 50.05 46.11 57.44 59.38 61.21 54.73 50.46 52.05 48.18 46.02 44.66

Banner

Login

Main Menu

MRCI Online

Free Links

Newsflash

The world will still run for decades on fossil-fuel energy --- crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas.  Buy 'em?  Sell 'em?  When?  Just since 2008, crude oil traded at $147/barrel, collapsed to -$40.32/barrel in 2020, ran to higher than $130 in early 2022, and the traded less than half that in May!

MRCI's newest special report is complete with seasonal patterns & weekly charts: for each delivery month and several spreads against each; for product spreads; for cash & basis; and for 3/2/1 and 2/1/1 crack spreads.  Better yet, this 284-page volume presents 190 seasonal & spread strategies to anticipate throughout the next 12-months. Order your copy today! https://www.mrci.com/products/energy