Perhaps we don't always make it clear what our research actually is and is meant to do. They are not recommendations generated by our analysis of the current market. Rather, they are statistical analyses of historical price movements that suggest strong tendencies for a market to react to fundamental events or conditions that recur annually and affect that market to move in the same direction --- with a great degree of reliability, to one degree or another, and in a more or less timely manner.
These strategies are chosen several weeks in advance of their entry dates, but we do not presume to know what any market will do in any given year any more than anyone else. We merely try to provide factual knowledge to traders well ahead of time so they know what that market has typically done at certain times.
Thus, other traders may react in knee-jerk fashion to news events, but MRCI subscribers can anticipate market movement. They can do their own research, plan and prepare, and look to see if the market sets up favorably and/or triggers an entry per their own fundamental knowledge or technical analysis.
And, if the market does not do so, they can have a better idea that something is different than normal instead of wading in amid a plethora of news, commentary, and market noise. Sometimes the seasonal timing may be off due to the ebb and flow of fundamentals specific to that year and sometimes those fundamentals are just plain different and the strategy will not work. In any case, the seasonal pattern and strategy can provide context for what the current market is doing.
I hope that helps you better understand our research and how it can help traders. We do not suggest traders necessarily trade these strategies as if entries and exits are written in stone. Rather we want traders to be more knowledgeable about how markets have tended to trade, in which direction, and when so they can better make their own trading decisions.
