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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Nov 30, 2024
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Nov 41763.00 45071.00 41647.00 44911.00 95% 45 33 30 91% 45071.00 47253.89 44911.00
#TRAN Higher Nov 16252.00 17846.00 16276.00 17619.00 86% 45 34 30 88% 17846.00 19212.32 17619.00
#OEX Higher Nov 2756.00 2907.80 2751.00 2902.90 97% 45 31 28 90% 2907.80 3057.90 2902.90
#NQ Higher Nov 3506.25 4794.75 3514.50 4546.25 81% 39 27 25 93% 4794.75 5164.71 4546.25
#QR Higher Nov 2196.65 2441.70 2200.30 2406.65 85% 45 31 29 94% Yes 2610.84 2406.65
#VLE Higher Nov 10869.00 11856.00 10869.00 11756.00 90% 41 30 28 93% 11856.00 12582.65 11756.00
#SP Higher Nov 5705.50 6044.25 5696.50 6032.50 97% 45 33 30 91% 6044.25 6345.74 6032.50
ESH5 Higher Nov 5798.00 6127.00 5783.75 6119.00 98% 27 21 19 90% 6127.00 6415.34 6119.00
NQH5 Higher Nov 3872.00 5205.75 3863.00 4866.75 75% 28 22 19 86% 5205.75 5575.80 4866.75
YMH5 Higher Nov 42336 45627 42188 45520 97% 27 21 19 90% 45627 47708 45520
USH5 Higher Nov 118~060 119~210 115~130 119~160 96% 45 32 28 88% 119~210 124~127 119~160
TYH5 Higher Nov 110~215 111~080 109~025 111~060 97% 42 24 22 92% 111~080 113~302 111~060
SIH5 Lower Nov 3323.9 3368.0 3009.5 3110.8 28% 45 27 23 85% 3009.5 2799.4 3110.8
CLH5 Lower Nov 68.19 71.63 66.24 67.48 23% 41 22 19 86% 66.24 56.36 67.48
CLJ5 Lower Nov 68.01 71.34 66.13 67.31 23% 41 22 19 86% 66.13 56.65 67.31
HOH5 Lower Nov 223.22 232.13 217.53 217.86 2% 45 24 24 100% 217.53 191.17 217.86
HOJ5 Lower Nov 222.04 230.75 216.12 216.30 1% 44 24 23 96% 216.12 188.03 216.30
RBJ5 Lower Nov 215.10 223.78 211.41 211.87 4% 39 19 17 89% 211.41 185.89 211.87
WH5 Lower Nov 590.25 597.00 543.00 548.00 9% 45 24 23 96% 543.00 500.26 548.00
WK5 Lower Nov 601.50 607.75 552.75 557.00 8% 45 26 25 96% 552.75 513.39 557.00
KWH5 Lower Nov 583.00 591.25 538.25 540.75 5% 45 25 22 88% 538.25 498.85 540.75
KWK5 Lower Nov 593.50 600.75 546.00 548.50 5% 45 27 24 89% 546.00 505.94 548.50
LCG5 Higher Nov 186.780 190.050 184.400 188.630 75% 45 26 22 85% 190.050 198.813 188.630
FCH5 Higher Nov 239.080 259.350 237.800 258.630 97% 45 24 21 88% 259.350 270.114 258.630
FCJ5 Higher Nov 240.100 260.350 239.000 259.630 97% 45 26 23 88% 260.350 270.669 259.630
FCK5 Higher Nov 240.600 260.430 239.430 259.770 97% 45 24 21 88% 260.430 270.415 259.770
KCH5 Higher Nov 245.50 335.45 240.80 318.05 82% 45 22 19 86% 335.45 373.18 318.05


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 41763.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 44911.00(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 41647.00(Month Low) to 45071.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in November than October in 33(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 33, the #DJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 30 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 45071.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 30 years) a potential move toward 47253.89(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 16252.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 17619.00(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 16276.00(Month Low) to 17846.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in November than October in 34(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 34, the #TRAN went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 30 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 17846.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 30 years) a potential move toward 19212.32(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 2756.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2902.90(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 2751.00(Month Low) to 2907.80(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in November than October in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, the #OEX went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 2907.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 3057.90(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NQ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 3506.25(Prev Close), the market ended November at 4546.25(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 3514.50(Month Low) to 4794.75(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in November than October in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #NQ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NQ should exceed 4794.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 5164.71(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #QR(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 2196.65(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2406.65(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 2200.30(Month Low) to 2441.70(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in November than October in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, the #QR went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 29 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #QR should exceed 2441.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 29 years) a potential move toward 2610.84(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 10869.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 11756.00(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 10869.00(Month Low) to 11856.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in November than October in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, the #VLE went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 11856.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 12582.65(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 5705.50(Prev Close), the market ended November at 6032.50(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 5696.50(Month Low) to 6044.25(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in November than October in 33(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 33, the #SP went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 30 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 6044.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 30 years) a potential move toward 6345.74(Average Objective).

March S & P 500 E-Mini(CME)
The ESH5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 5798.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 6119.00(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 5783.75(Month Low) to 6127.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March S & P 500 E-Mini(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, ESH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ESH should exceed 6127.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 6415.34(Average Objective).

March NASDAQ 100 E-Mini(CME)
The NQH5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 3872.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 4866.75(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 3863.00(Month Low) to 5205.75(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NASDAQ 100 E-Mini(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, NQH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NQH should exceed 5205.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 5575.80(Average Objective).

March E-mini DJIA Index(CBOT)
The YMH5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 42336(Prev Close), the market ended November at 45520(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 42188(Month Low) to 45627(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March E-mini DJIA Index(CBOT) also closed higher in November than October in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, YMH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the YMH should exceed 45627(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 47708(Average Objective).

March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USH5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 118~060(Prev Close), the market ended November at 119~160(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 115~130(Month Low) to 119~210(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in November than October in 32(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 32, USH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USH should exceed 119~210(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 124~127(Average Objective).

March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYH5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 110~215(Prev Close), the market ended November at 111~060(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 109~025(Month Low) to 111~080(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in November than October in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, TYH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 111~080(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 113~302(Average Objective).

March Silver(CMX)
The SIH5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 3323.9(Prev Close), the market ended November at 3110.8(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 3009.5(Month Low) to 3368.0(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Silver(CMX) also closed lower in November than October in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SIH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIH should penetrate 3009.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 2799.4(Average Objective).

March Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLH5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 68.19(Prev Close), the market ended November at 67.48(Month Close), that being 23%(Pct Range) off of 66.24(Month Low) to 71.63(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CLH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLH should penetrate 66.24(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 56.36(Average Objective).

April Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLJ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 68.01(Prev Close), the market ended November at 67.31(Month Close), that being 23%(Pct Range) off of 66.13(Month Low) to 71.34(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CLJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLJ should penetrate 66.13(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 56.65(Average Objective).

March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOH5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 223.22(Prev Close), the market ended November at 217.86(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 217.53(Month Low) to 232.13(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, HOH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should penetrate 217.53(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 191.17(Average Objective).

April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOJ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 222.04(Prev Close), the market ended November at 216.30(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 216.12(Month Low) to 230.75(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, HOJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should penetrate 216.12(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 188.03(Average Objective).

April RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBJ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 215.10(Prev Close), the market ended November at 211.87(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 211.41(Month Low) to 223.78(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, RBJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBJ should penetrate 211.41(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 185.89(Average Objective).

March Wheat(CBOT)
The WH5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 590.25(Prev Close), the market ended November at 548.00(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 543.00(Month Low) to 597.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in November than October in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, WH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WH should penetrate 543.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 500.26(Average Objective).

May Wheat(CBOT)
The WK5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 601.50(Prev Close), the market ended November at 557.00(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 552.75(Month Low) to 607.75(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in November than October in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, WK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WK should penetrate 552.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 513.39(Average Objective).

March Wheat(KCBT)
The KWH5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 583.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 540.75(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 538.25(Month Low) to 591.25(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in November than October in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, KWH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWH should penetrate 538.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 498.85(Average Objective).

May Wheat(KCBT)
The KWK5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 593.50(Prev Close), the market ended November at 548.50(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 546.00(Month Low) to 600.75(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in November than October in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, KWK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should penetrate 546.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 505.94(Average Objective).

February Live Cattle(CME)
The LCG5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 186.780(Prev Close), the market ended November at 188.630(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 184.400(Month Low) to 190.050(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, LCG went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCG should exceed 190.050(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 198.813(Average Objective).

March Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCH5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 239.080(Prev Close), the market ended November at 258.630(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 237.800(Month Low) to 259.350(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, FCH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCH should exceed 259.350(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 270.114(Average Objective).

April Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCJ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 240.100(Prev Close), the market ended November at 259.630(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 239.000(Month Low) to 260.350(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, FCJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCJ should exceed 260.350(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 270.669(Average Objective).

May Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCK5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 240.600(Prev Close), the market ended November at 259.770(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 239.430(Month Low) to 260.430(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, FCK went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCK should exceed 260.430(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 270.415(Average Objective).

March Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCH5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 245.50(Prev Close), the market ended November at 318.05(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 240.80(Month Low) to 335.45(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed higher in November than October in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, KCH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should exceed 335.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 373.18(Average Objective).
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Newsflash

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