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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary May 31, 2023
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#OEX Higher May 1913.10 1980.25 1858.95 1956.70 81% 45 28 26 93% 1980.25 2068.33 1956.70
#NQ Higher May 13245.75 14518.50 12938.25 14254.00 83% 37 24 23 96% 14518.50 15309.35 14254.00
#QR Higher May 1769.00 1816.40 1704.80 1773.00 61% 44 28 25 89% Yes 1910.65 1773.00
NQU3 Higher May 13466.75 14737.00 13146.50 14470.25 83% 26 14 14 100% 14737.00 15690.98 14470.25
YMU3 Lower May 34468 34628 32900 33258 21% 25 10 9 90% 32900 31745 33258
EUU3 Lower May 110.99 111.71 107.03 107.40 8% 24 14 13 93% 107.03 104.68 107.40
DXU3 Higher May 101.055 104.205 100.340 103.845 91% 37 22 20 91% 104.205 106.292 103.845
NGQ3 Lower May 2.645 2.885 2.317 2.358 7% 33 18 16 89% 2.317 1.975 2.358
NGU3 Lower May 2.626 2.864 2.309 2.358 9% 33 18 16 89% 2.309 1.953 2.358
NGV3 Lower May 2.722 2.942 2.434 2.478 9% 33 16 15 94% 2.434 2.078 2.478
SQ3 Lower May 1362.00 1382.75 1193.25 1217.75 13% 45 24 23 96% 1193.25 1090.11 1217.75
SU3 Lower May 1284.75 1306.50 1135.75 1152.50 10% 45 24 23 96% 1135.75 1039.91 1152.50
BOQ3 Lower May 51.42 54.74 44.68 46.31 16% 45 27 23 85% 44.68 40.14 46.31
BOU3 Lower May 51.06 54.28 44.64 46.25 17% 45 25 22 88% 44.64 40.35 46.25
SMQ3 Lower May 426.00 431.20 381.80 387.80 12% 45 24 23 96% 381.80 356.37 387.80
SMU3 Lower May 416.00 420.40 373.70 378.10 9% 45 24 24 100% 373.70 349.47 378.10
CU3 Lower May 528.75 539.50 486.25 516.25 56% 45 23 22 96% 486.25 430.89 516.25
CZ3 Lower May 527.75 537.00 490.75 521.75 67% 45 23 21 91% 490.75 438.23 521.75
WU3 Lower May 645.00 680.00 587.75 608.00 22% 45 27 23 85% 587.75 526.98 608.00
WZ3 Lower May 662.50 695.75 608.25 626.75 21% 45 26 22 85% 608.25 547.83 626.75
HEQ3 Lower May 94.680 94.400 73.480 81.850 40% 45 24 21 88% 73.480 66.545 81.850
HEV3 Lower May 84.380 84.250 68.630 75.200 42% 45 24 22 92% 68.630 61.171 75.200
KCU3 Lower May 183.20 191.55 173.20 175.85 14% 45 25 21 84% 173.20 152.48 175.85
CTZ3 Lower May 81.10 84.30 78.45 79.47 17% 45 25 21 84% 78.45 72.90 79.47
RRU3 Lower May 15.24 15.52 14.31 14.72 34% 36 19 17 89% 14.31 12.95 14.72


S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1913.10(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1956.70(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 1858.95(Month Low) to 1980.25(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in May than April in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #OEX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 1980.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 2068.33(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NQ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 13245.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 14254.00(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 12938.25(Month Low) to 14518.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #NQ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NQ should exceed 14518.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 15309.35(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #QR(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1769.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1773.00(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 1704.80(Month Low) to 1816.40(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in May than April in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #QR went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #QR should exceed 1816.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 1910.65(Average Objective).

September NASDAQ 100 E-Mini(CME)
The NQU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 13466.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 14470.25(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 13146.50(Month Low) to 14737.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September NASDAQ 100 E-Mini(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NQU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NQU should exceed 14737.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 15690.98(Average Objective).

September E-mini DJIA Index(CBOT)
The YMU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 34468(Prev Close), the market ended May at 33258(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 32900(Month Low) to 34628(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September E-mini DJIA Index(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, YMU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the YMU should penetrate 32900(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 31745(Average Objective).

September EuroFX(CME)
The EUU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 110.99(Prev Close), the market ended May at 107.40(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 107.03(Month Low) to 111.71(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September EuroFX(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, EUU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUU should penetrate 107.03(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 104.68(Average Objective).

September US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 101.055(Prev Close), the market ended May at 103.845(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 100.340(Month Low) to 104.205(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, DXU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should exceed 104.205(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 106.292(Average Objective).

August Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGQ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2.645(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2.358(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 2.317(Month Low) to 2.885(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in May than April in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, NGQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should penetrate 2.317(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1.975(Average Objective).

September Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2.626(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2.358(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 2.309(Month Low) to 2.864(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in May than April in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, NGU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should penetrate 2.309(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1.953(Average Objective).

October Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGV3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2.722(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2.478(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 2.434(Month Low) to 2.942(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in May than April in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NGV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGV should penetrate 2.434(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 2.078(Average Objective).

August Soybeans(CBOT)
The SQ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1362.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1217.75(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 1193.25(Month Low) to 1382.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, SQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SQ should penetrate 1193.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 1090.11(Average Objective).

September Soybeans(CBOT)
The SU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1284.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1152.50(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 1135.75(Month Low) to 1306.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, SU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SU should penetrate 1135.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 1039.91(Average Objective).

August Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOQ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 51.42(Prev Close), the market ended May at 46.31(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 44.68(Month Low) to 54.74(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, BOQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOQ should penetrate 44.68(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 40.14(Average Objective).

September Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 51.06(Prev Close), the market ended May at 46.25(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 44.64(Month Low) to 54.28(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, BOU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOU should penetrate 44.64(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 40.35(Average Objective).

August Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMQ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 426.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 387.80(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 381.80(Month Low) to 431.20(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, SMQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMQ should penetrate 381.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 356.37(Average Objective).

September Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 416.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 378.10(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 373.70(Month Low) to 420.40(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, SMU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMU should penetrate 373.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 349.47(Average Objective).

September Corn(CBOT)
The CU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 528.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 516.25(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 486.25(Month Low) to 539.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should penetrate 486.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 430.89(Average Objective).

December Corn(CBOT)
The CZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 527.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 521.75(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 490.75(Month Low) to 537.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 490.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 438.23(Average Objective).

September Wheat(CBOT)
The WU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 645.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 608.00(Month Close), that being 22%(Pct Range) off of 587.75(Month Low) to 680.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, WU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WU should penetrate 587.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 526.98(Average Objective).

December Wheat(CBOT)
The WZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 662.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 626.75(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 608.25(Month Low) to 695.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, WZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should penetrate 608.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 547.83(Average Objective).

August Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEQ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 94.680(Prev Close), the market ended May at 81.850(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 73.480(Month Low) to 94.400(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, HEQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEQ should penetrate 73.480(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 66.545(Average Objective).

October Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEV3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 84.380(Prev Close), the market ended May at 75.200(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 68.630(Month Low) to 84.250(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, HEV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEV should penetrate 68.630(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 61.171(Average Objective).

September Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 183.20(Prev Close), the market ended May at 175.85(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 173.20(Month Low) to 191.55(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, KCU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCU should penetrate 173.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 152.48(Average Objective).

December Cotton(ICE)
The CTZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 81.10(Prev Close), the market ended May at 79.47(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 78.45(Month Low) to 84.30(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CTZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should penetrate 78.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 72.90(Average Objective).

September Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 15.24(Prev Close), the market ended May at 14.72(Month Close), that being 34%(Pct Range) off of 14.31(Month Low) to 15.52(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, RRU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should penetrate 14.31(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 12.95(Average Objective).
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