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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Dec 31, 2022
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
EDH3 Higher Dec 94.840 95.025 94.810 94.925 53% 40 21 19 90% 95.025 95.320 94.925
BPH3 Lower Dec 120.94 124.79 120.17 120.84 15% 45 21 18 86% 120.17 115.13 120.84
SFH3 Higher Dec 107.13 109.67 106.98 109.02 76% 45 26 22 85% 109.67 113.04 109.02
GCG3 Higher Dec 1759.9 1841.9 1778.1 1826.2 75% 45 22 20 91% 1841.9 1991.6 1826.2
SIH3 Higher Dec 2178.1 2452.5 2219.0 2404.0 79% 45 22 21 95% 2452.5 2802.4 2404.0
PLJ3 Higher Dec 1040.2 1087.6 975.4 1082.9 96% 45 21 21 100% 1087.6 1247.1 1082.9
HGH3 Higher Dec 373.80 394.15 372.30 381.05 40% 45 26 23 88% 394.15 426.41 381.05
RBH3 Higher Dec 239.63 251.75 204.83 247.83 92% 37 23 23 100% 251.75 280.10 247.83
RBJ3 Higher Dec 258.02 266.81 223.75 263.09 91% 37 22 22 100% 266.81 296.93 263.09
RBK3 Higher Dec 258.18 266.07 225.01 262.10 90% 37 21 21 100% 266.07 296.26 262.10
NGH3 Lower Dec 6.178 6.379 4.015 4.104 4% 32 21 18 86% 4.015 3.366 4.104
SH3 Higher Dec 1475.50 1537.50 1431.75 1524.00 87% 45 19 16 84% 1537.50 1645.75 1524.00
BOH3 Lower Dec 70.28 69.74 58.50 64.07 50% 45 28 24 86% 58.50 55.15 64.07
BOK3 Lower Dec 68.78 68.31 58.22 63.94 57% 45 23 20 87% 58.22 54.95 63.94
CH3 Higher Dec 667.00 685.00 635.00 678.50 87% 45 20 17 85% 685.00 740.29 678.50
CK3 Higher Dec 665.25 684.00 636.75 678.00 87% 45 22 19 86% 684.00 740.17 678.00
LCG3 Higher Dec 155.680 159.180 152.750 157.900 80% 45 28 25 89% 159.180 168.391 157.900
LCJ3 Higher Dec 159.280 162.750 156.850 161.800 84% 45 29 26 90% 162.750 170.511 161.800
FCH3 Higher Dec 183.450 187.300 182.885 186.235 76% 45 29 25 86% 187.300 195.571 186.235
FCJ3 Higher Dec 186.800 190.550 186.300 189.635 78% 45 30 27 90% 190.550 198.484 189.635
KCK3 Lower Dec 170.15 174.40 155.55 166.95 60% 45 22 19 86% 155.55 143.07 166.95


March Eurodollars(CME)
The EDH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 94.840(Prev Close), the market ended December at 94.925(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 94.810(Month Low) to 95.025(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, EDH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 95.025(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 95.320(Average Objective).

March British Pound(CME)
The BPH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 120.94(Prev Close), the market ended December at 120.84(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 120.17(Month Low) to 124.79(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March British Pound(CME) also closed lower in December than November in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, BPH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BPH should penetrate 120.17(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 115.13(Average Objective).

March Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 107.13(Prev Close), the market ended December at 109.02(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 106.98(Month Low) to 109.67(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SFH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFH should exceed 109.67(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 113.04(Average Objective).

February Gold(CMX)
The GCG3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1759.9(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1826.2(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 1778.1(Month Low) to 1841.9(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Gold(CMX) also closed higher in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, GCG went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCG should exceed 1841.9(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1991.6(Average Objective).

March Silver(CMX)
The SIH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2178.1(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2404.0(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 2219.0(Month Low) to 2452.5(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Silver(CMX) also closed higher in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SIH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIH should exceed 2452.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 2802.4(Average Objective).

April Platinum(NYMEX)
The PLJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1040.2(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1082.9(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 975.4(Month Low) to 1087.6(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Platinum(NYMEX) also closed higher in December than November in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, PLJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLJ should exceed 1087.6(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1247.1(Average Objective).

March Copper(CMX)
The HGH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 373.80(Prev Close), the market ended December at 381.05(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 372.30(Month Low) to 394.15(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Copper(CMX) also closed higher in December than November in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, HGH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGH should exceed 394.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 426.41(Average Objective).

March RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 239.63(Prev Close), the market ended December at 247.83(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 204.83(Month Low) to 251.75(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, RBH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBH should exceed 251.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 280.10(Average Objective).

April RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 258.02(Prev Close), the market ended December at 263.09(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 223.75(Month Low) to 266.81(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, RBJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBJ should exceed 266.81(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 296.93(Average Objective).

May RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 258.18(Prev Close), the market ended December at 262.10(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 225.01(Month Low) to 266.07(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, RBK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBK should exceed 266.07(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 296.26(Average Objective).

March Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 6.178(Prev Close), the market ended December at 4.104(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 4.015(Month Low) to 6.379(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in December than November in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, NGH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGH should penetrate 4.015(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 3.366(Average Objective).

March Soybeans(CBOT)
The SH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1475.50(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1524.00(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 1431.75(Month Low) to 1537.50(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in December than November in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SH should exceed 1537.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1645.75(Average Objective).

March Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 70.28(Prev Close), the market ended December at 64.07(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 58.50(Month Low) to 69.74(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, BOH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOH should penetrate 58.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 55.15(Average Objective).

May Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOK3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 68.78(Prev Close), the market ended December at 63.94(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 58.22(Month Low) to 68.31(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, BOK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOK should penetrate 58.22(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 54.95(Average Objective).

March Corn(CBOT)
The CH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 667.00(Prev Close), the market ended December at 678.50(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 635.00(Month Low) to 685.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in December than November in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CH should exceed 685.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 740.29(Average Objective).

May Corn(CBOT)
The CK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 665.25(Prev Close), the market ended December at 678.00(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 636.75(Month Low) to 684.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CK should exceed 684.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 740.17(Average Objective).

February Live Cattle(CME)
The LCG3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 155.680(Prev Close), the market ended December at 157.900(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 152.750(Month Low) to 159.180(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, LCG went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCG should exceed 159.180(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 168.391(Average Objective).

April Live Cattle(CME)
The LCJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 159.280(Prev Close), the market ended December at 161.800(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 156.850(Month Low) to 162.750(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, LCJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCJ should exceed 162.750(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 170.511(Average Objective).

March Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 183.450(Prev Close), the market ended December at 186.235(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 182.885(Month Low) to 187.300(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, FCH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCH should exceed 187.300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 195.571(Average Objective).

April Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 186.800(Prev Close), the market ended December at 189.635(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 186.300(Month Low) to 190.550(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, FCJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCJ should exceed 190.550(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 198.484(Average Objective).

May Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCK3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 170.15(Prev Close), the market ended December at 166.95(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 155.55(Month Low) to 174.40(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, KCK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCK should penetrate 155.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 143.07(Average Objective).
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