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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Jul 31, 2022
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#UTIL Higher Jul 969.30 1028.20 938.55 1024.20 96% 45 28 26 93% 1028.20 1066.03 1024.20
#OEX Higher Jul 1725.60 1890.45 1702.80 1885.60 97% 45 25 21 84% 1890.45 1968.62 1885.60
#QR Higher Jul 1708.00 1780.15 1681.60 1769.35 89% 43 22 20 91% Yes 1879.69 1769.35
#MZ Higher Jul 2268.90 2520.00 2229.05 2512.75 98% 2 2 2 100% 2520.00 2591.38 2512.75
#VLE Higher Jul 8056.00 8818.00 7874.00 8803.00 98% 39 21 20 95% 8818.00 9190.25 8803.00
#SP Higher Jul 3785.50 4140.25 3721.50 4130.25 98% 45 24 22 92% 4140.25 4317.17 4130.25
YMZ2 Higher Jul 30847 32934 30217 32906 99% 23 15 13 87% 32934 34337 32906
USZ2 Higher Jul 137~240 143~200 136~070 143~160 98% 44 26 23 88% 143~200 150~042 143~160
TYZ2 Higher Jul 118~125 121~125 117~110 121~045 94% 40 26 24 92% 121~125 124~283 121~045
FVZ2 Higher Jul 112~080 114~002 111~136 113~252 92% 34 22 21 95% 114~002 115~286 113~252
TUZ2 Higher Jul 104~312 105~131 104~153 105~080 83% 22 13 11 85% 105~131 105~271 105~080
EDZ2 Higher Jul 96.310 96.500 95.905 96.355 76% 40 25 25 100% 96.500 96.875 96.355
ADZ2 Higher Jul 69.15 70.42 67.00 70.07 90% 34 17 15 88% 70.42 72.49 70.07
JYZ2 Higher Jul 74.81 76.38 72.80 75.93 87% 45 21 19 90% 76.38 78.97 75.93
PAZ2 Higher Jul 1923.80 2186.50 1837.00 2146.50 89% 44 26 22 85% 2186.50 2421.36 2146.50
HGZ2 Lower Jul 372.15 371.35 313.55 358.05 77% 45 13 12 92% 313.55 290.42 358.05
CLZ2 Lower Jul 95.56 99.79 82.77 93.87 65% 39 13 11 85% 82.77 73.62 93.87
NGX2 Higher Jul 5.520 9.427 5.465 8.283 71% 32 13 11 85% 9.427 11.285 8.283
WZ2 Lower Jul 900.50 954.00 772.50 825.75 29% 45 22 21 95% 772.50 702.53 825.75
WH3 Lower Jul 911.00 966.00 788.75 843.00 31% 45 22 20 91% 788.75 718.02 843.00
KWH3 Lower Jul 966.75 1008.75 826.75 886.25 33% 45 22 20 91% 826.75 754.07 886.25
LCV2 Higher Jul 138.780 143.780 138.030 142.235 73% 45 28 24 86% 143.780 150.037 142.235
HEV2 Higher Jul 88.680 97.880 86.830 97.230 94% 45 24 21 88% 97.880 105.159 97.230
CCH3 Lower Jul 2404 2454 2301 2392 59% 45 22 20 91% 2301 2128 2392
CTV2 Lower Jul 105.64 106.79 90.85 103.13 77% 45 25 22 88% 90.85 82.48 103.13
CTZ2 Lower Jul 98.84 99.00 82.54 96.74 86% 45 23 21 91% 82.54 75.36 96.74


Dow Jones Utilities
The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 969.30(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1024.20(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 938.55(Month Low) to 1028.20(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in July than June in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #UTIL went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 1028.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 1066.03(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1725.60(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1885.60(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 1702.80(Month Low) to 1890.45(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in July than June in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #OEX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 1890.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1968.62(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #QR(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1708.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1769.35(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 1681.60(Month Low) to 1780.15(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #QR went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #QR should exceed 1780.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1879.69(Average Objective).

S&P MidCap 400 Index
The #MZ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2268.90(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2512.75(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 2229.05(Month Low) to 2520.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 2 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S&P MidCap 400 Index also closed higher in July than June in 2(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 2, the #MZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 2 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MZ should exceed 2520.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 2 years) a potential move toward 2591.38(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 8056.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 8803.00(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 7874.00(Month Low) to 8818.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #VLE went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 8818.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 9190.25(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 3785.50(Prev Close), the market ended July at 4130.25(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 3721.50(Month Low) to 4140.25(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in July than June in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #SP went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 4140.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 4317.17(Average Objective).

December E-mini DJIA Index(CBOT)
The YMZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 30847(Prev Close), the market ended July at 32906(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 30217(Month Low) to 32934(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December E-mini DJIA Index(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, YMZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the YMZ should exceed 32934(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 34337(Average Objective).

December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 137~240(Prev Close), the market ended July at 143~160(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 136~070(Month Low) to 143~200(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, USZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 143~200(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 150~042(Average Objective).

December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 118~125(Prev Close), the market ended July at 121~045(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 117~110(Month Low) to 121~125(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, TYZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 121~125(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 124~283(Average Objective).

December 5-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The FVZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 112~080(Prev Close), the market ended July at 113~252(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 111~136(Month Low) to 114~002(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 5-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, FVZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FVZ should exceed 114~002(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 115~286(Average Objective).

December 2 Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TUZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 104~312(Prev Close), the market ended July at 105~080(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 104~153(Month Low) to 105~131(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 2 Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, TUZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TUZ should exceed 105~131(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 105~271(Average Objective).

December Eurodollars(CME)
The EDZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 96.310(Prev Close), the market ended July at 96.355(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 95.905(Month Low) to 96.500(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, EDZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 96.500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 96.875(Average Objective).

December Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 69.15(Prev Close), the market ended July at 70.07(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 67.00(Month Low) to 70.42(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, ADZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADZ should exceed 70.42(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 72.49(Average Objective).

December Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 74.81(Prev Close), the market ended July at 75.93(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 72.80(Month Low) to 76.38(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Japanese Yen(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, JYZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYZ should exceed 76.38(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 78.97(Average Objective).

December Palladium(NYMEX)
The PAZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1923.80(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2146.50(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 1837.00(Month Low) to 2186.50(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in July than June in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, PAZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAZ should exceed 2186.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 2421.36(Average Objective).

December Copper(CMX)
The HGZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 372.15(Prev Close), the market ended July at 358.05(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 313.55(Month Low) to 371.35(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Copper(CMX) also closed lower in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, HGZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGZ should penetrate 313.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 290.42(Average Objective).

December Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 95.56(Prev Close), the market ended July at 93.87(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 82.77(Month Low) to 99.79(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, CLZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLZ should penetrate 82.77(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 73.62(Average Objective).

November Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGX2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 5.520(Prev Close), the market ended July at 8.283(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 5.465(Month Low) to 9.427(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGX should exceed 9.427(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 11.285(Average Objective).

December Wheat(CBOT)
The WZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 900.50(Prev Close), the market ended July at 825.75(Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 772.50(Month Low) to 954.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, WZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should penetrate 772.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 702.53(Average Objective).

March Wheat(CBOT)
The WH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 911.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 843.00(Month Close), that being 31%(Pct Range) off of 788.75(Month Low) to 966.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, WH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WH should penetrate 788.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 718.02(Average Objective).

March Wheat(KCBT)
The KWH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 966.75(Prev Close), the market ended July at 886.25(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 826.75(Month Low) to 1008.75(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, KWH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWH should penetrate 826.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 754.07(Average Objective).

October Live Cattle(CME)
The LCV2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 138.780(Prev Close), the market ended July at 142.235(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 138.030(Month Low) to 143.780(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, LCV went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 143.780(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 150.037(Average Objective).

October Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEV2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 88.680(Prev Close), the market ended July at 97.230(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 86.830(Month Low) to 97.880(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, HEV went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEV should exceed 97.880(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 105.159(Average Objective).

March Cocoa(ICE)
The CCH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2404(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2392(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 2301(Month Low) to 2454(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CCH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should penetrate 2301(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 2128(Average Objective).

October Cotton(ICE)
The CTV2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 105.64(Prev Close), the market ended July at 103.13(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 90.85(Month Low) to 106.79(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CTV went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTV should penetrate 90.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 82.48(Average Objective).

December Cotton(ICE)
The CTZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 98.84(Prev Close), the market ended July at 96.74(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 82.54(Month Low) to 99.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CTZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should penetrate 82.54(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 75.36(Average Objective).
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