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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Nov 30, 2021
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#NQ Higher Nov 15850.25 16370.50 139.75 16135.75 99% 36 24 23 96% 16370.50 17758.59 16135.75
#QR Higher Nov 2297.20 2458.85 2298.10 2389.60 57% 42 29 27 93% Yes 2622.25 2389.60
NQH2 Higher Nov 15842.75 16379.00 93.75 16155.50 99% 25 19 18 95% 16379.00 17664.47 16155.50
TYH2 Higher Nov 129~285 131~100 128~225 130~260 81% 39 21 19 90% 131~100 134~177 130~260
CLH2 Lower Nov 78.46 80.25 63.85 65.49 10% 38 19 16 84% 63.85 53.56 65.49
CLJ2 Lower Nov 77.25 79.00 63.55 65.15 10% 38 19 16 84% 63.55 53.70 65.15
HOH2 Lower Nov 240.78 245.79 200.35 204.19 8% 42 21 21 100% 200.35 174.80 204.19
HOJ2 Lower Nov 237.15 242.15 198.76 202.42 8% 41 21 20 95% 198.76 171.23 202.42
RBJ2 Lower Nov 239.42 243.60 202.05 205.40 8% 36 16 14 88% 202.05 175.45 205.40
NGH2 Lower Nov 5.145 5.468 4.208 4.280 6% 31 22 19 86% 4.208 3.454 4.280
NGJ2 Lower Nov 4.047 4.363 3.827 3.934 20% 31 22 19 86% 3.827 3.221 3.934
LCG2 Higher Nov 134.235 141.850 133.780 137.900 51% 45 28 24 86% 141.850 149.112 137.900
FCF2 Higher Nov 156.135 168.300 150.780 164.850 80% 44 25 21 84% 168.300 175.178 164.850
FCH2 Higher Nov 157.400 169.080 152.250 166.500 85% 45 24 21 88% 169.080 176.994 166.500
KCH1 Higher Nov 106.85 124.80 104.85 123.30 92% 45 22 19 86% 124.80 140.99 125.45


NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NQ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 15850.25(Prev Close), the market ended November at 16135.75(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 139.75(Month Low) to 16370.50(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in November than October in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #NQ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NQ should exceed 16370.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 17758.59(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #QR(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 2297.20(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2389.60(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 2298.10(Month Low) to 2458.85(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in November than October in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, the #QR went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #QR should exceed 2458.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 2622.25(Average Objective).

March NASDAQ 100 E-Mini(CME)
The NQH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 15842.75(Prev Close), the market ended November at 16155.50(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 93.75(Month Low) to 16379.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NASDAQ 100 E-Mini(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, NQH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NQH should exceed 16379.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 17664.47(Average Objective).

March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 129~285(Prev Close), the market ended November at 130~260(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 128~225(Month Low) to 131~100(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in November than October in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, TYH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 131~100(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 134~177(Average Objective).

March Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLH2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 78.46(Prev Close), the market ended November at 65.49(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 63.85(Month Low) to 80.25(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CLH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLH should penetrate 63.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 53.56(Average Objective).

April Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLJ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 77.25(Prev Close), the market ended November at 65.15(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 63.55(Month Low) to 79.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CLJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLJ should penetrate 63.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 53.70(Average Objective).

March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOH2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 240.78(Prev Close), the market ended November at 204.19(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 200.35(Month Low) to 245.79(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, HOH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should penetrate 200.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 174.80(Average Objective).

April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOJ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 237.15(Prev Close), the market ended November at 202.42(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 198.76(Month Low) to 242.15(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, HOJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should penetrate 198.76(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 171.23(Average Objective).

April RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBJ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 239.42(Prev Close), the market ended November at 205.40(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 202.05(Month Low) to 243.60(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RBJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBJ should penetrate 202.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 175.45(Average Objective).

March Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGH2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 5.145(Prev Close), the market ended November at 4.280(Month Close), that being 6%(Pct Range) off of 4.208(Month Low) to 5.468(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, NGH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGH should penetrate 4.208(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 3.454(Average Objective).

April Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGJ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 4.047(Prev Close), the market ended November at 3.934(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 3.827(Month Low) to 4.363(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, NGJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGJ should penetrate 3.827(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 3.221(Average Objective).

February Live Cattle(CME)
The LCG2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 134.235(Prev Close), the market ended November at 137.900(Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 133.780(Month Low) to 141.850(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, LCG went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCG should exceed 141.850(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 149.112(Average Objective).

January Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCF2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 156.135(Prev Close), the market ended November at 164.850(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 150.780(Month Low) to 168.300(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, FCF went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCF should exceed 168.300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 175.178(Average Objective).

March Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 157.400(Prev Close), the market ended November at 166.500(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 152.250(Month Low) to 169.080(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, FCH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCH should exceed 169.080(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 176.994(Average Objective).

March Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCH1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 106.85(Prev Close), the market ended November at 123.30(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 104.85(Month Low) to 124.80(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed higher in November than October in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, KCH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should exceed 124.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 140.99(Average Objective).
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