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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Jul 30, 2021
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#TRAN Lower Jul 14881.00 15081.00 14080.00 14461.00 38% 45 21 18 86% 14080.00 12849.01 14461.00
#UTIL Higher Jul 876.05 923.60 873.55 907.40 68% 45 28 26 93% 923.60 958.55 907.40
#MZ Higher Jul 2696.10 2726.15 2550.60 2703.65 87% 1 1 1 100% 2726.15   2703.65
#SP Higher Jul 4297.50 4430.00 4233.25 4395.25 82% 45 23 21 91% 4430.00 4620.16 4395.25
SPU1 Higher Jul 4288.50 4416.00 4251.25 4389.50 84% 39 20 17 85% 4416.00 4560.02 4389.50
USZ1 Higher Jul 159~090 165~150 158~160 163~050 67% 43 25 23 92% 165~150 172~277 163~050
TYZ1 Higher Jul 131~260 134~200 131~160 133~275 76% 39 25 23 92% 134~200 138~198 133~275
FVZ1 Higher Jul 122~316 124~056 122~262 123~316 86% 33 21 20 95% 124~056 126~102 123~316
TUZ1 Higher Jul 110~040 110~085 110~000 110~061 71% 21 12 11 92% 110~085 110~233 110~061
EDZ1 Higher Jul 99.795 99.830 99.785 99.825 89% 39 24 24 100% 99.830 100.235 99.825
ADZ1 Lower Jul 75.00 76.03 72.94 73.39 15% 33 16 14 88% 72.94 69.80 73.39
EUZ1 Higher Jul 118.87 119.40 117.86 118.88 66% 22 11 10 91% 119.40 122.67 118.88
JYZ1 Higher Jul 90.14 91.79 89.69 91.20 72% 44 20 18 90% 91.79 95.03 91.20
SFZ1 Higher Jul 108.45 110.99 108.29 110.72 90% 45 19 18 95% 110.99 116.49 110.72
DXZ1 Lower Jul 92.420 93.160 91.775 92.168 28% 35 18 16 89% 91.775 89.473 92.168
GCZ1 Higher Jul 1775.8 1839.0 1771.7 1817.2 68% 45 22 19 86% 1839.0 2022.2 1817.2
PAZ1 Lower Jul 2781.50 2879.50 2580.00 2662.70 28% 43 17 15 88% 2580.00 2284.17 2662.70
CLX1 Higher Jul 70.89 73.58 63.96 72.43 88% 38 24 22 92% 73.58 80.31 72.43
CLZ1 Higher Jul 70.13 72.61 63.37 71.57 89% 38 24 22 92% 72.61 78.96 71.57
HOX1 Higher Jul 213.03 220.84 196.27 219.48 94% 42 25 22 88% 220.84 243.22 219.48
HOZ1 Higher Jul 212.84 220.57 195.96 219.16 94% 42 26 22 85% 220.57 241.81 219.16
RBX1 Higher Jul 205.87 215.07 188.98 214.16 97% 36 23 21 91% 215.07 236.60 214.16
RBZ1 Higher Jul 202.53 211.09 185.95 210.28 97% 36 23 21 91% 211.09 230.12 210.28
CBZ1 Higher Jul 72.37 75.02 65.88 73.80 87% 31 21 20 95% 75.02 82.81 73.80
CBF2 Higher Jul 71.77 74.26 65.44 73.08 87% 31 21 20 95% 74.26 81.37 73.08
SF2 Lower Jul 1399.75 1425.00 1305.00 1354.25 41% 45 27 23 85% 1305.00 1217.57 1354.25
LCV1 Lower Jul 128.150 129.930 124.050 127.200 54% 45 16 14 88% 124.050 115.862 127.200
HEV1 Higher Jul 87.280 94.050 83.130 88.030 45% 45 23 21 91% 94.050 100.640 88.030
KCZ1 Higher Jul 162.65 217.85 150.65 182.45 47% 45 17 15 88% 217.85 233.32 182.45
CCZ1 Lower Jul 2429 2499 2288 2422 64% 45 22 19 86% 2288 2102 2422
CTZ1 Higher Jul 84.90 91.00 84.92 89.39 74% 45 21 18 86% 91.00 98.23 89.39
SBV1 Higher Jul 17.89 18.81 16.73 17.91 57% 45 22 19 86% 18.81 20.34 17.91


Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 14881.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 14461.00(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 14080.00(Month Low) to 15081.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed lower in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #TRAN went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should penetrate 14080.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 12849.01(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Utilities
The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 876.05(Prev Close), the market ended July at 907.40(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 873.55(Month Low) to 923.60(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in July than June in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #UTIL went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 923.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 958.55(Average Objective).

S&P MidCap 400 Index
The #MZ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2696.10(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2703.65(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 2550.60(Month Low) to 2726.15(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 1 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S&P MidCap 400 Index also closed higher in July than June in 1(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 1, the #MZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 1 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MZ should exceed 2726.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September.

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 4297.50(Prev Close), the market ended July at 4395.25(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 4233.25(Month Low) to 4430.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in July than June in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, the #SP went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 4430.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 4620.16(Average Objective).

September S & P 500(CME)
The SPU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 4288.50(Prev Close), the market ended July at 4389.50(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 4251.25(Month Low) to 4416.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SPU went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 4416.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 4560.02(Average Objective).

December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 159~090(Prev Close), the market ended July at 163~050(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 158~160(Month Low) to 165~150(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, USZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 165~150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 172~277(Average Objective).

December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 131~260(Prev Close), the market ended July at 133~275(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 131~160(Month Low) to 134~200(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, TYZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 134~200(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 138~198(Average Objective).

December 5-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The FVZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 122~316(Prev Close), the market ended July at 123~316(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 122~262(Month Low) to 124~056(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 5-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, FVZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FVZ should exceed 124~056(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 126~102(Average Objective).

December 2 Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TUZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 110~040(Prev Close), the market ended July at 110~061(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 110~000(Month Low) to 110~085(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 2 Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, TUZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TUZ should exceed 110~085(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 110~233(Average Objective).

December Eurodollars(CME)
The EDZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 99.795(Prev Close), the market ended July at 99.825(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 99.785(Month Low) to 99.830(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, EDZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 99.830(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 100.235(Average Objective).

December Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 75.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 73.39(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 72.94(Month Low) to 76.03(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Australian Dollar(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, ADZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADZ should penetrate 72.94(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 69.80(Average Objective).

December EuroFX(CME)
The EUZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 118.87(Prev Close), the market ended July at 118.88(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 117.86(Month Low) to 119.40(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December EuroFX(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, EUZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUZ should exceed 119.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 122.67(Average Objective).

December Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 90.14(Prev Close), the market ended July at 91.20(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 89.69(Month Low) to 91.79(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Japanese Yen(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, JYZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYZ should exceed 91.79(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 95.03(Average Objective).

December Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 108.45(Prev Close), the market ended July at 110.72(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 108.29(Month Low) to 110.99(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SFZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFZ should exceed 110.99(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 116.49(Average Objective).

December US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 92.420(Prev Close), the market ended July at 92.168(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 91.775(Month Low) to 93.160(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, DXZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should penetrate 91.775(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 89.473(Average Objective).

December Gold(CMX)
The GCZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1775.8(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1817.2(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 1771.7(Month Low) to 1839.0(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Gold(CMX) also closed higher in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, GCZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCZ should exceed 1839.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 2022.2(Average Objective).

December Palladium(NYMEX)
The PAZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2781.50(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2662.70(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 2580.00(Month Low) to 2879.50(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Palladium(NYMEX) also closed lower in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, PAZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAZ should penetrate 2580.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 2284.17(Average Objective).

November Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLX1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 70.89(Prev Close), the market ended July at 72.43(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 63.96(Month Low) to 73.58(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, CLX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLX should exceed 73.58(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 80.31(Average Objective).

December Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 70.13(Prev Close), the market ended July at 71.57(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 63.37(Month Low) to 72.61(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, CLZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLZ should exceed 72.61(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 78.96(Average Objective).

November NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOX1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 213.03(Prev Close), the market ended July at 219.48(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 196.27(Month Low) to 220.84(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, HOX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOX should exceed 220.84(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 243.22(Average Objective).

December NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 212.84(Prev Close), the market ended July at 219.16(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 195.96(Month Low) to 220.57(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, HOZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOZ should exceed 220.57(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 241.81(Average Objective).

November RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBX1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 205.87(Prev Close), the market ended July at 214.16(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 188.98(Month Low) to 215.07(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, RBX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBX should exceed 215.07(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 236.60(Average Objective).

December RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 202.53(Prev Close), the market ended July at 210.28(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 185.95(Month Low) to 211.09(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, RBZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBZ should exceed 211.09(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 230.12(Average Objective).

December Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The CBZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 72.37(Prev Close), the market ended July at 73.80(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 65.88(Month Low) to 75.02(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CBZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBZ should exceed 75.02(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 82.81(Average Objective).

January Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The CBF2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 71.77(Prev Close), the market ended July at 73.08(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 65.44(Month Low) to 74.26(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CBF went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBF should exceed 74.26(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 81.37(Average Objective).

January Soybeans(CBOT)
The SF2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1399.75(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1354.25(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 1305.00(Month Low) to 1425.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in July than June in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SF went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SF should penetrate 1305.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 1217.57(Average Objective).

October Live Cattle(CME)
The LCV1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 128.150(Prev Close), the market ended July at 127.200(Month Close), that being 54%(Pct Range) off of 124.050(Month Low) to 129.930(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, LCV went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should penetrate 124.050(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 115.862(Average Objective).

October Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 87.280(Prev Close), the market ended July at 88.030(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 83.130(Month Low) to 94.050(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, HEV went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEV should exceed 94.050(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 100.640(Average Objective).

December Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 162.65(Prev Close), the market ended July at 182.45(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 150.65(Month Low) to 217.85(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, KCZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCZ should exceed 217.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 233.32(Average Objective).

December Cocoa(ICE)
The CCZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2429(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2422(Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 2288(Month Low) to 2499(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CCZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should penetrate 2288(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 2102(Average Objective).

December Cotton(ICE)
The CTZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 84.90(Prev Close), the market ended July at 89.39(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 84.92(Month Low) to 91.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CTZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should exceed 91.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 98.23(Average Objective).

October Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 17.89(Prev Close), the market ended July at 17.91(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 16.73(Month Low) to 18.81(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SBV went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should exceed 18.81(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 20.34(Average Objective).
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Newsflash

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