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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary May 28, 2021
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher May 33875.00 35092.00 33474.00 34529.00 65% 45 26 23 88% 35092.00 36741.72 34529.00
#OEX Higher May 590.11 613.62 527.48 593.83 77% 45 28 25 89% 613.62 658.53 593.83
#MZ Higher May 2725.15 2780.10 2627.25 2727.45 66% 1 1 1 100% 2780.10   2727.45
#VLE Higher May 9430.00 9662.00 9181.00 9629.00 93% 38 26 22 85% 9662.00 10175.94 9629.00
SPU1 Higher May 4164.50 4215.50 4048.75 4192.50 86% 39 26 23 88% 4215.50 4387.40 4192.50
USU1 Higher May 155~210 158~240 153~280 156~170 54% 43 21 21 100% 158~240 164~247 156~170
TYU1 Higher May 131~060 132~215 130~315 131~300 56% 38 19 17 89% 132~215 136~000 131~300
FVU1 Higher May 123~106 124~024 123~076 123~272 73% 32 20 17 85% 124~024 126~093 123~272
ADU1 Higher May 77.09 78.94 76.80 77.17 17% 34 13 13 100% 78.94 81.15 77.17
BPU1 Higher May 138.15 142.36 138.07 141.97 91% 45 14 12 86% 142.36 150.71 141.97
EUU1 Higher May 120.56 122.93 120.19 122.26 76% 22 8 7 88% 122.93 127.07 122.26
DXU1 Lower May 91.245 91.410 89.545 89.998 24% 35 13 11 85% 89.545 86.334 89.998
RBU1 Higher May 201.30 215.70 199.26 210.61 69% 36 20 17 85% 215.70 231.64 210.61
RBV1 Higher May 187.48 201.55 185.45 198.41 80% 36 20 17 85% 201.55 216.68 198.41
SN1 Lower May 1534.25 1667.50 1489.25 1530.50 23% 45 25 23 92% 1489.25 1383.19 1530.50
SMN1 Lower May 426.10 457.20 378.30 395.50 22% 45 24 22 92% 378.30 360.10 395.50
SMQ1 Lower May 419.70 449.50 379.00 396.50 25% 45 23 23 100% 379.00 351.53 396.50
CN1 Lower May 673.25 735.25 602.75 656.75 41% 45 22 20 91% 602.75 547.09 656.75
CU1 Lower May 592.25 656.00 525.00 573.25 37% 45 22 21 95% 525.00 463.01 573.25
WN1 Lower May 734.75 767.50 639.50 663.50 19% 45 26 23 88% 639.50 586.78 663.50
WU1 Lower May 732.25 767.75 642.75 667.25 20% 45 27 23 85% 642.75 575.03 667.25
KWU1 Lower May 707.25 745.25 595.50 620.50 17% 45 24 22 92% 595.50 540.62 620.50
OU1 Lower May 382.75 403.25 350.00 380.25 57% 45 23 20 87% 350.00 305.92 380.25
HEV1 Higher May 88.700 94.450 87.850 94.080 94% 45 21 19 90% 94.450 100.454 94.080
CCU1 Higher May 2411 2590 2353 2456 43% 45 19 17 89% 2590 2836 2456
CCZ1 Higher May 2431 2620 2385 2488 44% 45 19 17 89% 2620 2905 2488
LBU1 Lower May 1235.0 1591.3 1051.0 1158.1 20% 45 20 18 90% 1051.0 931.0 1158.1
LBX1 Lower May 1090.0 1400.0 897.4 1005.0 21% 45 20 17 85% 897.4 813.7 1005.0
CTZ1 Lower May 85.06 87.00 80.99 83.32 39% 45 25 22 88% 80.99 74.87 83.32
SBV1 Higher May 16.86 18.23 16.65 17.39 47% 45 19 17 89% 18.23 20.90 17.39
SBH2 Higher May 16.81 18.05 16.69 17.49 59% 45 19 17 89% 18.05 20.23 17.49
RRU1 Lower May 13.66 14.21 13.34 13.55 24% 34 18 16 89% 13.34 12.08 13.55


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 33875.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 34529.00(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 33474.00(Month Low) to 35092.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #DJ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 35092.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 36741.72(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 590.11(Prev Close), the market ended May at 593.83(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 527.48(Month Low) to 613.62(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in May than April in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #OEX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 613.62(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 658.53(Average Objective).

S&P MidCap 400 Index
The #MZ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2725.15(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2727.45(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 2627.25(Month Low) to 2780.10(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 1 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S&P MidCap 400 Index also closed higher in May than April in 1(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 1, the #MZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 1 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MZ should exceed 2780.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July.

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 9430.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 9629.00(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 9181.00(Month Low) to 9662.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #VLE went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 9662.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 10175.94(Average Objective).

September S & P 500(CME)
The SPU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 4164.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 4192.50(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 4048.75(Month Low) to 4215.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SPU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 4215.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 4387.40(Average Objective).

September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 155~210(Prev Close), the market ended May at 156~170(Month Close), that being 54%(Pct Range) off of 153~280(Month Low) to 158~240(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, USU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should exceed 158~240(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 164~247(Average Objective).

September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 131~060(Prev Close), the market ended May at 131~300(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 130~315(Month Low) to 132~215(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, TYU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should exceed 132~215(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 136~000(Average Objective).

September 5-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The FVU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 123~106(Prev Close), the market ended May at 123~272(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 123~076(Month Low) to 124~024(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 5-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, FVU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FVU should exceed 124~024(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 126~093(Average Objective).

September Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 77.09(Prev Close), the market ended May at 77.17(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 76.80(Month Low) to 78.94(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, ADU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADU should exceed 78.94(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 81.15(Average Objective).

September British Pound(CME)
The BPU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 138.15(Prev Close), the market ended May at 141.97(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 138.07(Month Low) to 142.36(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September British Pound(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, BPU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BPU should exceed 142.36(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 150.71(Average Objective).

September EuroFX(CME)
The EUU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 120.56(Prev Close), the market ended May at 122.26(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 120.19(Month Low) to 122.93(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September EuroFX(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, EUU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUU should exceed 122.93(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 127.07(Average Objective).

September US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 91.245(Prev Close), the market ended May at 89.998(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 89.545(Month Low) to 91.410(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, DXU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should penetrate 89.545(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 86.334(Average Objective).

September RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 201.30(Prev Close), the market ended May at 210.61(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 199.26(Month Low) to 215.70(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, RBU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBU should exceed 215.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 231.64(Average Objective).

October RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 187.48(Prev Close), the market ended May at 198.41(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 185.45(Month Low) to 201.55(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, RBV went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBV should exceed 201.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 216.68(Average Objective).

July Soybeans(CBOT)
The SN1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1534.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1530.50(Month Close), that being 23%(Pct Range) off of 1489.25(Month Low) to 1667.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SN went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SN should penetrate 1489.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 1383.19(Average Objective).

July Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMN1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 426.10(Prev Close), the market ended May at 395.50(Month Close), that being 22%(Pct Range) off of 378.30(Month Low) to 457.20(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, SMN went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMN should penetrate 378.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 360.10(Average Objective).

August Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMQ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 419.70(Prev Close), the market ended May at 396.50(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 379.00(Month Low) to 449.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SMQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMQ should penetrate 379.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 351.53(Average Objective).

July Corn(CBOT)
The CN1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 673.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 656.75(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 602.75(Month Low) to 735.25(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CN went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should penetrate 602.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 547.09(Average Objective).

September Corn(CBOT)
The CU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 592.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 573.25(Month Close), that being 37%(Pct Range) off of 525.00(Month Low) to 656.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should penetrate 525.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 463.01(Average Objective).

July Wheat(CBOT)
The WN1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 734.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 663.50(Month Close), that being 19%(Pct Range) off of 639.50(Month Low) to 767.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, WN went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WN should penetrate 639.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 586.78(Average Objective).

September Wheat(CBOT)
The WU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 732.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 667.25(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 642.75(Month Low) to 767.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, WU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WU should penetrate 642.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 575.03(Average Objective).

September Wheat(KCBT)
The KWU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 707.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 620.50(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 595.50(Month Low) to 745.25(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, KWU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should penetrate 595.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 540.62(Average Objective).

September Oats(CBOT)
The OU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 382.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 380.25(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 350.00(Month Low) to 403.25(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, OU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OU should penetrate 350.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 305.92(Average Objective).

October Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 88.700(Prev Close), the market ended May at 94.080(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 87.850(Month Low) to 94.450(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, HEV went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEV should exceed 94.450(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 100.454(Average Objective).

September Cocoa(ICE)
The CCU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2411(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2456(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 2353(Month Low) to 2590(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CCU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCU should exceed 2590(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 2836(Average Objective).

December Cocoa(ICE)
The CCZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2431(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2488(Month Close), that being 44%(Pct Range) off of 2385(Month Low) to 2620(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CCZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should exceed 2620(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 2905(Average Objective).

September Lumber(CME)
The LBU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1235.0(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1158.1(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 1051.0(Month Low) to 1591.3(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Lumber(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LBU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBU should penetrate 1051.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 931.0(Average Objective).

November Lumber(CME)
The LBX1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1090.0(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1005.0(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 897.4(Month Low) to 1400.0(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Lumber(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LBX went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBX should penetrate 897.4(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 813.7(Average Objective).

December Cotton(ICE)
The CTZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 85.06(Prev Close), the market ended May at 83.32(Month Close), that being 39%(Pct Range) off of 80.99(Month Low) to 87.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CTZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should penetrate 80.99(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 74.87(Average Objective).

October Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 16.86(Prev Close), the market ended May at 17.39(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 16.65(Month Low) to 18.23(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SBV went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should exceed 18.23(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 20.90(Average Objective).

March Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 16.81(Prev Close), the market ended May at 17.49(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 16.69(Month Low) to 18.05(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SBH went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBH should exceed 18.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 20.23(Average Objective).

September Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 13.66(Prev Close), the market ended May at 13.55(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 13.34(Month Low) to 14.21(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, RRU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should penetrate 13.34(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 12.08(Average Objective).
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