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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Apr 30, 2021
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Apr 32982.00 34257.00 32985.00 33875.00 70% 45 31 28 90% 34257.00 35727.71 33875.00
#TRAN Higher Apr 14631.00 15440.00 14618.00 15347.00 89% 45 27 23 85% 15440.00 16393.63 15347.00
#OEX Higher Apr 491.16 607.58 501.53 590.11 84% 45 28 24 86% 607.58 643.64 590.11
#MZ Higher Apr 2609.25 2778.85 2619.15 2725.15 66% 1 1 1 100% 2778.85   2725.15
#VLE Higher Apr 9080.00 9595.00 9080.00 9430.00 68% 38 24 21 88% 9595.00 10174.46 9430.00
#SP Higher Apr 3973.00 4218.75 3992.75 4181.25 83% 45 31 29 94% 4218.75 4410.86 4181.25
SPU1 Higher Apr 3957.25 4193.50 3999.50 4164.50 85% 38 27 26 96% 4193.50 4377.94 4164.50
NQU1 Higher Apr 13077.75 14050.25 13087.50 13838.75 78% 24 16 14 88% 14050.25 15121.21 13838.75
YMU1 Higher Apr 32785 34029 32737 33658 71% 22 18 17 94% 34029 35296 33658
USU1 Higher Apr 153~030 157~140 153~250 155~210 51% 43 20 18 90% 157~140 165~238 155~210
TYU1 Higher Apr 130~010 131~300 129~305 131~060 62% 38 18 16 89% 131~300 136~057 131~060
FVU1 Higher Apr 122~266 123~206 122~262 123~106 62% 32 16 16 100% 123~206 126~053 123~106
TUU1 Lower Apr 110~114 110~113 110~051 110~087 60% 20 10 9 90% 110~051 109~168 110~087
EDU1 Lower Apr 99.810 99.815 99.795 99.800 25% 39 16 14 88% 99.795 99.390 99.800
ADU1 Higher Apr 76.03 78.22 75.37 77.09 60% 34 22 19 86% 78.22 81.30 77.09
SFU1 Higher Apr 106.22 110.51 106.04 109.87 86% 45 20 17 85% 110.51 113.74 109.87
CLQ1 Higher Apr 58.69 64.96 57.42 63.14 76% 38 23 20 87% 64.96 70.01 63.14
RBQ1 Higher Apr 191.48 208.48 188.70 204.45 80% 35 25 21 84% 208.48 229.89 204.45
RBU1 Higher Apr 188.44 205.27 185.73 201.30 80% 36 27 23 85% 205.27 224.20 201.30
NGQ1 Higher Apr 2.753 3.050 2.647 2.989 85% 30 19 18 95% 3.050 3.412 2.989
NGU1 Higher Apr 2.740 3.033 2.639 2.972 85% 30 20 19 95% 3.033 3.393 2.972
CBU1 Higher Apr 61.49 67.49 60.39 65.80 76% 31 20 18 90% 67.49 72.91 65.80
CTV1 Higher Apr 80.70 89.21 78.22 86.47 75% 45 26 22 85% 89.21 95.05 86.47


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 32982.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 33875.00(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 32985.00(Month Low) to 34257.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in April than March in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, the #DJ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 34257.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 35727.71(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 14631.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 15347.00(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 14618.00(Month Low) to 15440.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in April than March in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #TRAN went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 15440.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 16393.63(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 491.16(Prev Close), the market ended April at 590.11(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 501.53(Month Low) to 607.58(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in April than March in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #OEX went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 607.58(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 643.64(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #QR(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2220.50(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2262.65(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 2208.20(Month Low) to 2280.85(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in April than March in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #QR went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #QR should exceed 2280.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 2431.78(Average Objective).

S&P MidCap 400 Index
The #MZ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2609.25(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2725.15(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 2619.15(Month Low) to 2778.85(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 1 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S&P MidCap 400 Index also closed higher in April than March in 1(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 1, the #MZ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 1 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MZ should exceed 2778.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June.

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 9080.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 9430.00(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 9080.00(Month Low) to 9595.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in April than March in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #VLE went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 9595.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 10174.46(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 3973.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 4181.25(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 3992.75(Month Low) to 4218.75(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in April than March in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, the #SP went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 29 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 4218.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 29 years) a potential move toward 4410.86(Average Objective).

September S & P 500(CME)
The SPU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 3957.25(Prev Close), the market ended April at 4164.50(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 3999.50(Month Low) to 4193.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SPU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 4193.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 4377.94(Average Objective).

September NASDAQ 100 E-Mini(CME)
The NQU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 13077.75(Prev Close), the market ended April at 13838.75(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 13087.50(Month Low) to 14050.25(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September NASDAQ 100 E-Mini(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NQU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NQU should exceed 14050.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 15121.21(Average Objective).

September E-mini DJIA Index(CBOT)
The YMU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 32785(Prev Close), the market ended April at 33658(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 32737(Month Low) to 34029(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September E-mini DJIA Index(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, YMU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the YMU should exceed 34029(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 35296(Average Objective).

September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 153~030(Prev Close), the market ended April at 155~210(Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 153~250(Month Low) to 157~140(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, USU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should exceed 157~140(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 165~238(Average Objective).

September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 130~010(Prev Close), the market ended April at 131~060(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 129~305(Month Low) to 131~300(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, TYU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should exceed 131~300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 136~057(Average Objective).

September 5-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The FVU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 122~266(Prev Close), the market ended April at 123~106(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 122~262(Month Low) to 123~206(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 5-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, FVU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FVU should exceed 123~206(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 126~053(Average Objective).

September 2 Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TUU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 110~114(Prev Close), the market ended April at 110~087(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 110~051(Month Low) to 110~113(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 2 Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, TUU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TUU should penetrate 110~051(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 109~168(Average Objective).

September Eurodollars(CME)
The EDU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 99.810(Prev Close), the market ended April at 99.800(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 99.795(Month Low) to 99.815(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, EDU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should penetrate 99.795(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 99.390(Average Objective).

September Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 76.03(Prev Close), the market ended April at 77.09(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 75.37(Month Low) to 78.22(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, ADU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADU should exceed 78.22(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 81.30(Average Objective).

September Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 106.22(Prev Close), the market ended April at 109.87(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 106.04(Month Low) to 110.51(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SFU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFU should exceed 110.51(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 113.74(Average Objective).

August Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLQ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 58.69(Prev Close), the market ended April at 63.14(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 57.42(Month Low) to 64.96(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CLQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLQ should exceed 64.96(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 70.01(Average Objective).

August RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBQ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 191.48(Prev Close), the market ended April at 204.45(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 188.70(Month Low) to 208.48(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, RBQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBQ should exceed 208.48(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 229.89(Average Objective).

September RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 188.44(Prev Close), the market ended April at 201.30(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 185.73(Month Low) to 205.27(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, RBU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBU should exceed 205.27(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 224.20(Average Objective).

August Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGQ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2.753(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2.989(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 2.647(Month Low) to 3.050(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, NGQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 3.050(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 3.412(Average Objective).

September Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2.740(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2.972(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 2.639(Month Low) to 3.033(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, NGU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should exceed 3.033(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 3.393(Average Objective).

September Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The CBU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 61.49(Prev Close), the market ended April at 65.80(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 60.39(Month Low) to 67.49(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CBU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBU should exceed 67.49(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 72.91(Average Objective).

October Cotton(ICE)
The CTV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 80.70(Prev Close), the market ended April at 86.47(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 78.22(Month Low) to 89.21(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in April than March in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, CTV went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTV should exceed 89.21(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 95.05(Average Objective).
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