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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Jan 31, 2021
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#VLE Higher Jan 7913.00 8508.00 7755.00 8283.00 70% 37 22 20 91% Yes 8961.19 8283.00
#SP Lower Jan 3756.00 3871.00 3662.75 3714.25 25% 45 18 16 89% 3662.75 3442.36 3714.25
SPM1 Lower Jan 3738.50 3838.25 3682.00 3695.25 8% 38 14 13 93% 3682.00 3467.56 3695.25
TUM1 Lower Jan 110~155 110~156 110~135 110~151 71% 18 4 4 100% 110~135 110~055 110~151
HGK1 Higher Jan 352.40 374.00 349.85 355.65 24% 45 23 22 96% 374.00 405.63 355.65
CLK1 Higher Jan 48.69 53.68 47.50 51.88 71% 37 19 18 95% 53.68 59.27 51.88
CLM1 Higher Jan 48.63 53.44 47.50 51.63 70% 37 20 19 95% 53.44 58.63 51.63
RBK1 Higher Jan 153.56 171.21 149.77 165.77 75% 35 21 19 90% 171.21 191.15 165.77
RBM1 Higher Jan 153.40 170.39 149.90 165.29 75% 35 22 19 86% 170.39 190.94 165.29
NGK1 Higher Jan 2.555 2.822 2.527 2.625 33% 30 13 11 85% 2.822 3.218 2.625
NGM1 Higher Jan 2.611 2.868 2.593 2.683 33% 30 14 12 86% 2.868 3.261 2.683
CBK1 Higher Jan 51.78 57.09 50.68 54.81 64% 31 17 15 88% 57.09 63.90 54.81
CBM1 Higher Jan 51.66 56.80 50.62 54.55 64% 30 15 14 93% 56.80 62.55 54.55
BOK1 Higher Jan 41.52 44.61 40.53 43.91 83% 45 18 16 89% 44.61 48.83 43.91
BON1 Higher Jan 40.94 43.70 40.13 43.28 88% 45 19 16 84% 43.70 47.71 43.28
CK1 Higher Jan 483.25 553.75 480.25 547.50 91% 45 25 21 84% 553.75 592.77 547.50
CN1 Higher Jan 480.25 543.50 478.25 536.50 89% 45 24 21 88% 543.50 582.40 536.50
OK1 Lower Jan 355.00 364.75 337.75 346.50 32% 45 24 21 88% 337.75 305.43 346.50
ON1 Lower Jan 347.00 356.75 333.00 339.50 27% 45 25 22 88% 333.00 305.66 339.50
LCJ1 Higher Jan 119.250 123.900 115.530 121.850 76% 45 27 23 85% 123.900 131.838 121.850
LCM1 Higher Jan 114.700 119.780 111.930 117.600 72% 45 26 22 85% 119.780 126.160 117.600
HEJ1 Higher Jan 72.250 77.600 70.650 76.650 86% 45 25 21 84% 77.600 83.383 76.650
HEM1 Higher Jan 82.830 88.400 82.500 87.300 81% 45 29 25 86% 88.400 94.743 87.300
KCK1 Lower Jan 130.15 133.75 120.85 125.00 32% 45 24 22 92% 120.85 110.61 125.00
KCN1 Lower Jan 131.85 135.60 122.75 126.95 33% 45 22 21 95% 122.75 112.51 126.95
LBN1 Higher Jan 600.0 770.1 554.2 761.0 96% 45 24 21 88% 770.1 819.4 761.0
SBN1 Higher Jan 14.19 15.13 14.14 14.60 46% 45 22 19 86% 15.13 16.79 14.60

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 7913.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 8283.00(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 7755.00(Month Low) to 8508.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #VLE went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 8508.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 8961.19(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 3756.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 3714.25(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 3662.75(Month Low) to 3871.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed lower in January than December in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #SP went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should penetrate 3662.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 3442.36(Average Objective).

June S & P 500(CME)
The SPM1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 3738.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 3695.25(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 3682.00(Month Low) to 3838.25(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, SPM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should penetrate 3682.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 3467.56(Average Objective).

June 2 Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TUM1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 110~155(Prev Close), the market ended January at 110~151(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 110~135(Month Low) to 110~156(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 18 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 2 Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 4(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 4, TUM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 4 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TUM should penetrate 110~135(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 4 years) a potential move toward 110~055(Average Objective).

May Copper(CMX)
The HGK1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 352.40(Prev Close), the market ended January at 355.65(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 349.85(Month Low) to 374.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Copper(CMX) also closed higher in January than December in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, HGK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGK should exceed 374.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 405.63(Average Objective).

May Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLK1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 48.69(Prev Close), the market ended January at 51.88(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 47.50(Month Low) to 53.68(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CLK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLK should exceed 53.68(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 59.27(Average Objective).

June Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLM1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 48.63(Prev Close), the market ended January at 51.63(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 47.50(Month Low) to 53.44(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CLM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLM should exceed 53.44(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 58.63(Average Objective).

May RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBK1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 153.56(Prev Close), the market ended January at 165.77(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 149.77(Month Low) to 171.21(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, RBK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBK should exceed 171.21(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 191.15(Average Objective).

June RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBM1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 153.40(Prev Close), the market ended January at 165.29(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 149.90(Month Low) to 170.39(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, RBM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBM should exceed 170.39(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 190.94(Average Objective).

May Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGK1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2.555(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2.625(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 2.527(Month Low) to 2.822(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGK should exceed 2.822(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 3.218(Average Objective).

June Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGM1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2.611(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2.683(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 2.593(Month Low) to 2.868(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NGM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGM should exceed 2.868(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 3.261(Average Objective).

May Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The CBK1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 51.78(Prev Close), the market ended January at 54.81(Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 50.68(Month Low) to 57.09(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CBK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBK should exceed 57.09(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 63.90(Average Objective).

June Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The CBM1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 51.66(Prev Close), the market ended January at 54.55(Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 50.62(Month Low) to 56.80(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CBM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBM should exceed 56.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 62.55(Average Objective).

May Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOK1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 41.52(Prev Close), the market ended January at 43.91(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 40.53(Month Low) to 44.61(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, BOK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOK should exceed 44.61(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 48.83(Average Objective).

July Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BON1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 40.94(Prev Close), the market ended January at 43.28(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 40.13(Month Low) to 43.70(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, BON went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BON should exceed 43.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 47.71(Average Objective).

May Corn(CBOT)
The CK1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 483.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 547.50(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 480.25(Month Low) to 553.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CK should exceed 553.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 592.77(Average Objective).

July Corn(CBOT)
The CN1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 480.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 536.50(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 478.25(Month Low) to 543.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, CN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should exceed 543.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 582.40(Average Objective).

May Oats(CBOT)
The OK1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 355.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 346.50(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 337.75(Month Low) to 364.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, OK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OK should penetrate 337.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 305.43(Average Objective).

July Oats(CBOT)
The ON1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 347.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 339.50(Month Close), that being 27%(Pct Range) off of 333.00(Month Low) to 356.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, ON went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ON should penetrate 333.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 305.66(Average Objective).

April Live Cattle(CME)
The LCJ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 119.250(Prev Close), the market ended January at 121.850(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 115.530(Month Low) to 123.900(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, LCJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCJ should exceed 123.900(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 131.838(Average Objective).

June Live Cattle(CME)
The LCM1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 114.700(Prev Close), the market ended January at 117.600(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 111.930(Month Low) to 119.780(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, LCM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCM should exceed 119.780(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 126.160(Average Objective).

April Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEJ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 72.250(Prev Close), the market ended January at 76.650(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 70.650(Month Low) to 77.600(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, HEJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEJ should exceed 77.600(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 83.383(Average Objective).

June Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEM1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 82.830(Prev Close), the market ended January at 87.300(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 82.500(Month Low) to 88.400(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, HEM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEM should exceed 88.400(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 94.743(Average Objective).

May Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCK1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 130.15(Prev Close), the market ended January at 125.00(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 120.85(Month Low) to 133.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in January than December in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, KCK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCK should penetrate 120.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 110.61(Average Objective).

July Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCN1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 131.85(Prev Close), the market ended January at 126.95(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 122.75(Month Low) to 135.60(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, KCN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCN should penetrate 122.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 112.51(Average Objective).

July Lumber(CME)
The LBN1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 600.0(Prev Close), the market ended January at 761.0(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 554.2(Month Low) to 770.1(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lumber(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, LBN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBN should exceed 770.1(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 819.4(Average Objective).

July Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBN1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 14.19(Prev Close), the market ended January at 14.60(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 14.14(Month Low) to 15.13(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SBN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBN should exceed 15.13(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 16.79(Average Objective).

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