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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Aug 31, 2020
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Aug 26428.00 28733.00 26534.00 28430.00 86% 45 25 21 84% 28733.00 29817.57 28430.00
#NQ Higher Aug 10905.75 12167.25 10855.00 12110.50 96% 34 20 18 90% 12167.25 12834.10 12110.50
#QR Higher Aug 1480.45 1603.60 1483.35 1552.50 58% 41 23 20 87% Yes 1673.10 1552.50
NQZ0 Higher Aug 10874.25 12148.00 10830.25 12099.50 96% 24 13 12 92% 12148.00 12865.32 12099.50
ADZ0 Higher Aug 71.48 74.04 70.80 73.90 96% 33 14 13 93% 74.04 76.66 73.90
DXZ0 Lower Aug 93.340 93.975 92.010 92.140 7% 34 18 16 89% 92.010 88.848 92.140
PAZ0 Higher Aug 2157.80 2361.30 2117.80 2279.30 66% 43 17 15 88% 2361.30 2611.82 2279.30
RBZ0 Higher Aug 108.49 122.53 107.22 117.65 68% 35 19 17 89% 122.53 133.75 117.65
RBF1 Higher Aug 109.15 122.74 108.28 118.08 68% 35 18 16 89% 122.74 132.63 118.08
RBG1 Higher Aug 110.81 123.72 111.70 119.47 65% 35 18 16 89% 123.72 133.12 119.47
SH1 Higher Aug 895.50 971.75 875.00 959.75 88% 45 22 19 86% 971.75 1045.15 959.75
SMZ0 Higher Aug 297.30 314.90 286.20 312.50 92% 45 27 23 85% 314.90 343.73 312.50
JOF1 Lower Aug 127.05 128.85 117.25 119.30 18% 45 21 18 86% 117.25 106.30 119.30
CTZ0 Higher Aug 62.66 66.45 62.01 65.16 71% 45 17 15 88% 66.45 73.28 65.16
SBH1 Higher Aug 13.20 13.77 12.99 13.28 37% 45 19 17 89% 13.77 15.50 13.28
SBK1 Higher Aug 12.91 13.44 12.74 13.06 46% 45 18 16 89% 13.44 15.11 13.06


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 26428.00(Prev Close), the market ended August at 28430.00(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 26534.00(Month Low) to 28733.00(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in August than July in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #DJ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 28733.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 29817.57(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NQ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 10905.75(Prev Close), the market ended August at 12110.50(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 10855.00(Month Low) to 12167.25(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #NQ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NQ should exceed 12167.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 12834.10(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #QR(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 1480.45(Prev Close), the market ended August at 1552.50(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 1483.35(Month Low) to 1603.60(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in August than July in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, the #QR went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #QR should exceed 1603.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1673.10(Average Objective).

December NASDAQ 100 E-Mini(CME)
The NQZ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 10874.25(Prev Close), the market ended August at 12099.50(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 10830.25(Month Low) to 12148.00(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December NASDAQ 100 E-Mini(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NQZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NQZ should exceed 12148.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 12865.32(Average Objective).

December Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADZ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 71.48(Prev Close), the market ended August at 73.90(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 70.80(Month Low) to 74.04(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, ADZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADZ should exceed 74.04(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 76.66(Average Objective).

December US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXZ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 93.340(Prev Close), the market ended August at 92.140(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 92.010(Month Low) to 93.975(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, DXZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should penetrate 92.010(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 88.848(Average Objective).

December Palladium(NYMEX)
The PAZ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 2157.80(Prev Close), the market ended August at 2279.30(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 2117.80(Month Low) to 2361.30(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, PAZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAZ should exceed 2361.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 2611.82(Average Objective).

December RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBZ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 108.49(Prev Close), the market ended August at 117.65(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 107.22(Month Low) to 122.53(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, RBZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBZ should exceed 122.53(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 133.75(Average Objective).

January RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBF1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 109.15(Prev Close), the market ended August at 118.08(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 108.28(Month Low) to 122.74(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, RBF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBF should exceed 122.74(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 132.63(Average Objective).

February RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBG1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 110.81(Prev Close), the market ended August at 119.47(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 111.70(Month Low) to 123.72(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, RBG went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBG should exceed 123.72(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 133.12(Average Objective).

March Soybeans(CBOT)
The SH1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 895.50(Prev Close), the market ended August at 959.75(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 875.00(Month Low) to 971.75(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SH should exceed 971.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1045.15(Average Objective).

December Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMZ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 297.30(Prev Close), the market ended August at 312.50(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 286.20(Month Low) to 314.90(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SMZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMZ should exceed 314.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 343.73(Average Objective).

January Orange Juice(ICE)
The JOF1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 127.05(Prev Close), the market ended August at 119.30(Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 117.25(Month Low) to 128.85(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Orange Juice(ICE) also closed lower in August than July in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, JOF went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOF should penetrate 117.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 106.30(Average Objective).

December Cotton(ICE)
The CTZ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 62.66(Prev Close), the market ended August at 65.16(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 62.01(Month Low) to 66.45(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CTZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should exceed 66.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 73.28(Average Objective).

March Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBH1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 13.20(Prev Close), the market ended August at 13.28(Month Close), that being 37%(Pct Range) off of 12.99(Month Low) to 13.77(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SBH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBH should exceed 13.77(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 15.50(Average Objective).

May Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBK1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 12.91(Prev Close), the market ended August at 13.06(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 12.74(Month Low) to 13.44(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, SBK went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBK should exceed 13.44(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 15.11(Average Objective).
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