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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Mar 31, 2020
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
TUM0 Higher Mar 109~052 110~190 109~021 110~061 74% 29 14 12 86% 110~190 110~315 110~061
EUM0 Lower Mar 110.94 115.45 106.71 110.50 43% 21 11 10 91% 106.71 102.32 110.50
JYM0 Lower Mar 93.23 99.21 89.97 93.20 35% 43 24 21 88% 89.97 86.87 93.20
SFM0 Lower Mar 104.27 109.43 101.38 104.17 35% 44 23 22 96% 101.38 97.43 104.17
DXM0 Higher Mar 97.785 103.960 94.530 99.093 48% 34 17 15 88% 103.960 107.168 99.093
HON0 Lower Mar 147.80 157.01 98.78 104.15 9% 40 13 11 85% 98.78 90.62 104.15
HOQ0 Lower Mar 148.84 157.77 101.33 107.39 11% 40 13 11 85% 101.33 93.30 107.39
NGM0 Lower Mar 1.799 2.108 1.689 1.756 16% 29 10 10 100% 1.689 1.543 1.756
NGN0 Higher Mar 1.881 2.193 1.802 1.912 28% 29 19 19 100% 2.193 2.434 1.912
NGQ0 Higher Mar 1.918 2.228 1.858 1.978 32% 29 19 19 100% 2.228 2.476 1.978
SN0 Lower Mar 901.50 920.50 829.00 889.50 66% 45 20 17 85% 829.00 789.46 889.50
SQ0 Lower Mar 904.00 921.50 831.75 888.75 64% 45 20 17 85% 831.75 790.94 888.75
BOQ0 Lower Mar 29.20 30.57 25.21 27.51 43% 45 20 17 85% 25.21 23.80 27.51
CN0 Lower Mar 372.50 387.75 338.25 346.00 16% 45 21 18 86% 338.25 315.14 346.00
CZ0 Lower Mar 377.00 386.75 353.25 357.50 13% 45 20 19 95% 353.25 333.26 357.50
KWU0 Higher Mar 469.25 514.75 437.25 507.00 90% 43 17 15 88% 514.75 560.09 507.00
LCM0 Lower Mar 101.200 105.930 85.250 92.085 33% 45 23 20 87% 85.250 79.431 92.085
LCQ0 Lower Mar 102.280 105.980 84.680 93.600 42% 45 22 19 86% 84.680 79.791 93.600
CCN0 Lower Mar 2684 2698 2201 2259 12% 45 23 20 87% 2201 1936 2259
LBN0 Lower Mar 410.9 428.1 295.0 300.9 4% 45 22 19 86% 295.0 266.2 300.9
SBN0 Lower Mar 14.06 14.30 10.41 10.50 2% 45 27 23 85% 10.41 8.76 10.50
SBV0 Lower Mar 14.12 14.35 10.59 10.76 5% 45 26 22 85% 10.59 9.04 10.76
RRU0 Higher Mar 12.03 12.15 11.47 12.10 93% 33 20 18 90% 12.15 13.17 12.10


June 2 Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TUM0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 109~052(Prev Close), the market ended March at 110~061(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 109~021(Month Low) to 110~190(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 2 Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, TUM went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TUM should exceed 110~190(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 110~315(Average Objective).

June EuroFX(CME)
The EUM0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 110.94(Prev Close), the market ended March at 110.50(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 106.71(Month Low) to 115.45(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June EuroFX(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, EUM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUM should penetrate 106.71(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 102.32(Average Objective).

June Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYM0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 93.23(Prev Close), the market ended March at 93.20(Month Close), that being 35%(Pct Range) off of 89.97(Month Low) to 99.21(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, JYM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYM should penetrate 89.97(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 86.87(Average Objective).

June Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFM0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 104.27(Prev Close), the market ended March at 104.17(Month Close), that being 35%(Pct Range) off of 101.38(Month Low) to 109.43(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SFM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFM should penetrate 101.38(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 97.43(Average Objective).

June US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXM0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 97.785(Prev Close), the market ended March at 99.093(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 94.530(Month Low) to 103.960(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in March than February in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, DXM went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXM should exceed 103.960(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 107.168(Average Objective).

July NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HON0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 147.80(Prev Close), the market ended March at 104.15(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 98.78(Month Low) to 157.01(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in March than February in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, HON went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HON should penetrate 98.78(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 90.62(Average Objective).

August NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOQ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 148.84(Prev Close), the market ended March at 107.39(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 101.33(Month Low) to 157.77(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in March than February in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, HOQ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOQ should penetrate 101.33(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 93.30(Average Objective).

June Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGM0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 1.799(Prev Close), the market ended March at 1.756(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 1.689(Month Low) to 2.108(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in March than February in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, NGM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGM should penetrate 1.689(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 1.543(Average Objective).

July Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGN0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 1.881(Prev Close), the market ended March at 1.912(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 1.802(Month Low) to 2.193(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, NGN went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGN should exceed 2.193(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 2.434(Average Objective).

August Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGQ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 1.918(Prev Close), the market ended March at 1.978(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 1.858(Month Low) to 2.228(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, NGQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 2.228(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 2.476(Average Objective).

July Soybeans(CBOT)
The SN0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 901.50(Prev Close), the market ended March at 889.50(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 829.00(Month Low) to 920.50(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SN should penetrate 829.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 789.46(Average Objective).

August Soybeans(CBOT)
The SQ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 904.00(Prev Close), the market ended March at 888.75(Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 831.75(Month Low) to 921.50(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SQ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SQ should penetrate 831.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 790.94(Average Objective).

August Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOQ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 29.20(Prev Close), the market ended March at 27.51(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 25.21(Month Low) to 30.57(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, BOQ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOQ should penetrate 25.21(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 23.80(Average Objective).

July Corn(CBOT)
The CN0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 372.50(Prev Close), the market ended March at 346.00(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 338.25(Month Low) to 387.75(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should penetrate 338.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 315.14(Average Objective).

December Corn(CBOT)
The CZ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 377.00(Prev Close), the market ended March at 357.50(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 353.25(Month Low) to 386.75(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CZ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 353.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 333.26(Average Objective).

September Wheat(KCBT)
The KWU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 469.25(Prev Close), the market ended March at 507.00(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 437.25(Month Low) to 514.75(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed higher in March than February in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, KWU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should exceed 514.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 560.09(Average Objective).

June Live Cattle(CME)
The LCM0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 101.200(Prev Close), the market ended March at 92.085(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 85.250(Month Low) to 105.930(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, LCM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCM should penetrate 85.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 79.431(Average Objective).

August Live Cattle(CME)
The LCQ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 102.280(Prev Close), the market ended March at 93.600(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 84.680(Month Low) to 105.980(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, LCQ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should penetrate 84.680(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 79.791(Average Objective).

July Cocoa(ICE)
The CCN0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 2684(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2259(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 2201(Month Low) to 2698(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in March than February in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CCN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCN should penetrate 2201(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1936(Average Objective).

July Lumber(CME)
The LBN0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 410.9(Prev Close), the market ended March at 300.9(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 295.0(Month Low) to 428.1(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lumber(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, LBN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBN should penetrate 295.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 266.2(Average Objective).

July Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBN0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 14.06(Prev Close), the market ended March at 10.50(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 10.41(Month Low) to 14.30(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Sugar #11(ICE) also closed lower in March than February in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SBN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBN should penetrate 10.41(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 8.76(Average Objective).

October Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBV0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 14.12(Prev Close), the market ended March at 10.76(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 10.59(Month Low) to 14.35(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed lower in March than February in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SBV went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should penetrate 10.59(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 9.04(Average Objective).

September Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 12.03(Prev Close), the market ended March at 12.10(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 11.47(Month Low) to 12.15(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, RRU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should exceed 12.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 13.17(Average Objective).
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