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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Jan 31, 2020
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#VLE Higher Jan 105.10 6553.30 48.90 6411.40 98% 36 22 20 91% 6553.30 6905.32 6411.40
#SP Lower Jan 3230.80 3275.60 0.40 3225.50 98% 45 17 16 94% 0.40 -153.52 3225.50
EUH0 Lower Jan 112.82 112.76 110.24 111.19 38% 21 13 11 85% 110.24 107.37 111.19
NGJ0 Lower Jan 2.149 2.196 1.856 1.886 9% 29 16 14 88% 1.856 1.624 1.886
NGM0 Lower Jan 2.246 2.279 1.989 2.015 9% 29 15 13 87% 1.989 1.757 2.015
SMH0 Lower Jan 304.70 307.50 290.40 291.00 4% 45 21 19 90% 290.40 272.90 291.00
SMK0 Lower Jan 308.50 311.10 295.70 296.30 4% 45 20 19 95% 295.70 278.78 296.30
CK0 Lower Jan 394.75 398.75 382.25 386.50 26% 45 20 18 90% 382.25 360.72 386.50
WK0 Lower Jan 561.75 590.75 548.50 552.50 9% 45 21 18 86% 548.50 506.29 552.50
KWK0 Lower Jan 494.25 511.75 470.75 472.50 4% 43 20 18 90% 470.75 444.11 472.50
OK0 Higher Jan 289.75 310.00 285.50 298.25 52% 45 19 16 84% 310.00 343.37 298.25
HEJ0 Lower Jan 77.930 78.830 61.330 61.600 2% 45 20 17 85% 61.330 54.760 61.600
HEJ0 Lower Jan 77.930 78.830 61.330 61.600 2% 45 20 17 85% 61.330 54.760 61.600
KCK0 Lower Jan 131.90 133.10 102.35 104.90 8% 45 24 22 92% 102.35 93.50 104.90
CCK0 Higher Jan 2541 2874 2480 2801 81% 45 17 16 94% 2874 3182 2801


Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 105.10(Prev Close), the market ended January at 6411.40(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 48.90(Month Low) to 6553.30(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #VLE went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 6553.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 6905.32(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 3230.80(Prev Close), the market ended January at 3225.50(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 0.40(Month Low) to 3275.60(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed lower in January than December in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #SP went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should penetrate 0.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward -153.52(Average Objective).

March EuroFX(CME)
The EUH0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 112.82(Prev Close), the market ended January at 111.19(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 110.24(Month Low) to 112.76(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March EuroFX(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, EUH went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUH should penetrate 110.24(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 107.37(Average Objective).

April Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGJ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2.149(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1.886(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 1.856(Month Low) to 2.196(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NGJ went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGJ should penetrate 1.856(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 1.624(Average Objective).

June Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGM0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2.246(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2.015(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 1.989(Month Low) to 2.279(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, NGM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGM should penetrate 1.989(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 1.757(Average Objective).

March Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMH0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 304.70(Prev Close), the market ended January at 291.00(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 290.40(Month Low) to 307.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SMH went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMH should penetrate 290.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 272.90(Average Objective).

May Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMK0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 308.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 296.30(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 295.70(Month Low) to 311.10(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SMK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMK should penetrate 295.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 278.78(Average Objective).

May Corn(CBOT)
The CK0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 394.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 386.50(Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 382.25(Month Low) to 398.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CK should penetrate 382.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 360.72(Average Objective).

May Wheat(CBOT)
The WK0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 561.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 552.50(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 548.50(Month Low) to 590.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, WK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WK should penetrate 548.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 506.29(Average Objective).

May Wheat(KCBT)
The KWK0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 494.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 472.50(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 470.75(Month Low) to 511.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, KWK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should penetrate 470.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 444.11(Average Objective).

May Oats(CBOT)
The OK0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 289.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 298.25(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 285.50(Month Low) to 310.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Oats(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, OK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OK should exceed 310.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 343.37(Average Objective).

April Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEJ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 77.930(Prev Close), the market ended January at 61.600(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 61.330(Month Low) to 78.830(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, HEJ went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEJ should penetrate 61.330(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 54.760(Average Objective).

April Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEJ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 77.930(Prev Close), the market ended January at 61.600(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 61.330(Month Low) to 78.830(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, HEJ went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEJ should penetrate 61.330(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 54.760(Average Objective).

May Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCK0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 131.90(Prev Close), the market ended January at 104.90(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 102.35(Month Low) to 133.10(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in January than December in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, KCK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCK should penetrate 102.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 93.50(Average Objective).

May Cocoa(ICE)
The CCK0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2541(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2801(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 2480(Month Low) to 2874(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CCK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCK should exceed 2874(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 3182(Average Objective).
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