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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Aug 31, 2019
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Lower Aug 26864.00 27176.00 25340.00 26403.00 58% 45 20 17 85% 25340.00 23651.39 26403.00
USZ9 Higher Aug 154~270 166~250 154~090 165~080 88% 41 27 23 85% 166~250 173~226 165~080
TYZ9 Higher Aug 127~285 132~090 127~210 131~230 88% 37 27 24 89% 132~090 135~303 131~230
EDZ9 Higher Aug 97.855 98.320 97.845 98.140 62% 37 28 26 93% 98.320 98.785 98.140
EDH0 Higher Aug 98.090 98.580 98.070 98.450 75% 37 27 25 93% 98.580 99.076 98.450
EDZ9 Higher Aug 97.855 98.320 97.845 98.140 62% 37 28 26 93% 98.320 98.785 98.140
PAZ9 Higher Aug 1523.40 1543.20 1379.80 1539.20 98% 42 16 14 88% 1543.20 1705.39 1539.20
NGZ9 Lower Aug 2.520 2.595 2.339 2.485 57% 29 14 13 93% 2.339 2.016 2.485
NGF0 Lower Aug 2.641 2.706 2.474 2.588 49% 29 15 13 87% 2.474 2.189 2.588
JOF0 Lower Aug 109.35 111.90 96.90 105.95 60% 45 20 17 85% 96.90 87.19 105.95
JOH0 Lower Aug 112.35 113.55 99.90 108.55 63% 45 21 18 86% 99.90 90.70 108.55


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 26864.00(Prev Close), the market ended August at 26403.00(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 25340.00(Month Low) to 27176.00(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed lower in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #DJ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should penetrate 25340.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 23651.39(Average Objective).

December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 154~270(Prev Close), the market ended August at 165~080(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 154~090(Month Low) to 166~250(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, USZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 166~250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 173~226(Average Objective).

December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 127~285(Prev Close), the market ended August at 131~230(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 127~210(Month Low) to 132~090(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, TYZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 132~090(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 135~303(Average Objective).

December Eurodollars(CME)
The EDZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 97.855(Prev Close), the market ended August at 98.140(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 97.845(Month Low) to 98.320(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, EDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 98.320(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 98.785(Average Objective).

March Eurodollars(CME)
The EDH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 98.090(Prev Close), the market ended August at 98.450(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 98.070(Month Low) to 98.580(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, EDH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 98.580(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 99.076(Average Objective).

December Eurodollars(CME)
The EDZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 97.855(Prev Close), the market ended August at 98.140(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 97.845(Month Low) to 98.320(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, EDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 98.320(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 98.785(Average Objective).

December Palladium(NYMEX)
The PAZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 1523.40(Prev Close), the market ended August at 1539.20(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 1379.80(Month Low) to 1543.20(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in August than July in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, PAZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAZ should exceed 1543.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 1705.39(Average Objective).

December Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGZ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 2.520(Prev Close), the market ended August at 2.485(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 2.339(Month Low) to 2.595(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NGZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 2.339(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2.016(Average Objective).

January Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGF0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 2.641(Prev Close), the market ended August at 2.588(Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 2.474(Month Low) to 2.706(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in August than July in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, NGF went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should penetrate 2.474(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2.189(Average Objective).

January Orange Juice(ICE)
The JOF0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 109.35(Prev Close), the market ended August at 105.95(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 96.90(Month Low) to 111.90(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Orange Juice(ICE) also closed lower in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, JOF went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOF should penetrate 96.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 87.19(Average Objective).

March Orange Juice(ICE)
The JOH0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 112.35(Prev Close), the market ended August at 108.55(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 99.90(Month Low) to 113.55(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Orange Juice(ICE) also closed lower in August than July in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, JOH went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOH should penetrate 99.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 90.70(Average Objective).
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