MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Aug 31, 2019

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Lower

Aug

26864.00

27176.00

25340.00

26403.00

58%

85%

25340.00

23651.39

26403.00

USZ9

Higher

Aug

154~270

166~250

154~090

165~080

88%

85%

166~250

173~226

165~080

TYZ9

Higher

Aug

127~285

132~090

127~210

131~230

88%

89%

132~090

135~303

131~230

EDZ9

Higher

Aug

97.855

98.320

97.845

98.140

62%

93%

98.320

98.785

98.140

EDH0

Higher

Aug

98.090

98.580

98.070

98.450

75%

93%

98.580

99.076

98.450

EDZ9

Higher

Aug

97.855

98.320

97.845

98.140

62%

93%

98.320

98.785

98.140

PAZ9

Higher

Aug

1523.40

1543.20

1379.80

1539.20

98%

88%

1543.20

1705.39

1539.20

NGZ9

Lower

Aug

2.520

2.595

2.339

2.485

57%

93%

2.339

2.016

2.485

NGF0

Lower

Aug

2.641

2.706

2.474

2.588

49%

87%

2.474

2.189

2.588

JOF0

Lower

Aug

109.35

111.90

96.90

105.95

60%

85%

96.90

87.19

105.95

JOH0

Lower

Aug

112.35

113.55

99.90

108.55

63%

86%

99.90

90.70

108.55

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 26864.00(Prev Close), the market ended August at 26403.00(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 25340.00(Month Low) to 27176.00(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed lower in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #DJ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should penetrate 25340.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 23651.39(Average Objective).
December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 154~270(Prev Close), the market ended August at 165~080(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 154~090(Month Low) to 166~250(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, USZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 166~250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 173~226(Average Objective).
December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 127~285(Prev Close), the market ended August at 131~230(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 127~210(Month Low) to 132~090(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, TYZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 132~090(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 135~303(Average Objective).
December Eurodollars(CME): The EDZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 97.855(Prev Close), the market ended August at 98.140(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 97.845(Month Low) to 98.320(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, EDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 98.320(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 98.785(Average Objective).
March Eurodollars(CME): The EDH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 98.090(Prev Close), the market ended August at 98.450(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 98.070(Month Low) to 98.580(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, EDH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 98.580(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 99.076(Average Objective).
December Eurodollars(CME): The EDZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 97.855(Prev Close), the market ended August at 98.140(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 97.845(Month Low) to 98.320(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, EDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 98.320(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 98.785(Average Objective).
December Palladium(NYMEX): The PAZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 1523.40(Prev Close), the market ended August at 1539.20(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 1379.80(Month Low) to 1543.20(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in August than July in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, PAZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAZ should exceed 1543.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 1705.39(Average Objective).
December Natural Gas(NYM): The NGZ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 2.520(Prev Close), the market ended August at 2.485(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 2.339(Month Low) to 2.595(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NGZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 2.339(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2.016(Average Objective).
January Natural Gas(NYM): The NGF0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 2.641(Prev Close), the market ended August at 2.588(Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 2.474(Month Low) to 2.706(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in August than July in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, NGF went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should penetrate 2.474(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2.189(Average Objective).
January Orange Juice(ICE): The JOF0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 109.35(Prev Close), the market ended August at 105.95(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 96.90(Month Low) to 111.90(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Orange Juice(ICE) also closed lower in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, JOF went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOF should penetrate 96.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 87.19(Average Objective).
March Orange Juice(ICE): The JOH0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 112.35(Prev Close), the market ended August at 108.55(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 99.90(Month Low) to 113.55(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Orange Juice(ICE) also closed lower in August than July in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, JOH went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOH should penetrate 99.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 90.70(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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