MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Jul 31, 2019

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#NDX

Higher

Jul

7671.00

8027.00

7735.50

7848.75

39%

86%

8027.00

8516.20

7848.75

#MID

Higher

Jul

1945.50

1991.50

1931.70

1966.70

59%

94%

1991.50

2079.10

1966.70

#VLE

Higher

Jul

6233.40

6353.50

6201.00

6274.00

48%

95%

6353.50

6612.14

6274.00

#SP

Higher

Jul

2941.75

3028.00

2952.20

2980.40

37%

95%

3028.00

3149.21

2980.40

SPZ9

Higher

Jul

2945.10

3027.50

2968.90

2985.30

28%

94%

3027.50

3130.20

2985.30

USZ9

Higher

Jul

154~250

156~020

152~040

154~270

69%

91%

156~020

163~048

154~270

ADZ9

Lower

Jul

70.50

71.03

68.65

68.69

87%

68.65

65.60

68.69

PAZ9

Lower

Jul

1533.00

1595.90

1493.70

1523.40

29%

88%

1493.70

1322.47

1523.40

HGZ9

Lower

Jul

272.05

280.60

261.95

267.60

30%

93%

261.95

238.52

267.60

CLX9

Higher

Jul

58.22

60.77

54.90

58.61

63%

91%

60.77

66.27

58.61

CLZ9

Higher

Jul

57.98

60.56

54.80

58.50

64%

91%

60.56

65.84

58.50

ITCOZ9

Higher

Jul

63.80

66.56

60.46

64.08

59%

95%

66.56

73.52

64.08

HOX9

Higher

Jul

195.89

203.25

187.16

197.99

67%

87%

203.25

224.31

197.99

RBX9

Higher

Jul

165.65

174.75

157.40

166.82

54%

90%

174.75

191.58

166.82

RBZ9

Higher

Jul

162.69

171.35

154.33

163.97

57%

90%

171.35

186.21

163.97

NGZ9

Lower

Jul

2.595

2.768

2.417

2.520

29%

88%

2.417

2.177

2.520

CBX9

Higher

Jul

64.07

66.90

60.70

64.55

62%

95%

66.90

74.20

64.55

CBZ9

Higher

Jul

63.80

66.56

60.46

64.08

59%

95%

66.56

73.51

64.08

WZ9

Lower

Jul

538.50

543.00

490.75

493.25

95%

490.75

446.30

493.25

LCV9

Higher

Jul

105.430

110.600

105.050

107.650

47%

89%

110.600

115.233

107.650

FCU9

Higher

Jul

136.700

144.680

136.400

142.450

73%

84%

144.680

150.478

142.450

HEV9

Higher

Jul

70.850

81.980

67.430

71.000

25%

91%

81.980

87.295

71.000

CCZ9

Lower

Jul

2458

2606

2389

2400

86%

2389

2208

2400

CTV9

Lower

Jul

65.75

67.86

60.78

63.22

34%

88%

60.78

55.83

63.22

CTZ9

Lower

Jul

66.08

68.35

61.66

63.84

33%

91%

61.66

57.12

63.84

NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 7671.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 7848.75(Month Close), that being 39%(Pct Range) off of 7735.50(Month Low) to 8027.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #NDX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 8027.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 8516.20(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1945.50(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1966.70(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 1931.70(Month Low) to 1991.50(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #MID went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1991.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 2079.10(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 6233.40(Prev Close), the market ended July at 6274.00(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 6201.00(Month Low) to 6353.50(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #VLE went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 6353.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 6612.14(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2941.75(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2980.40(Month Close), that being 37%(Pct Range) off of 2952.20(Month Low) to 3028.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #SP went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 3028.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 3149.21(Average Objective).
December S & P 500(CME): The SPZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2945.10(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2985.30(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 2968.90(Month Low) to 3027.50(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, SPZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPZ should exceed 3027.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 3130.20(Average Objective).
December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 154~250(Prev Close), the market ended July at 154~270(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 152~040(Month Low) to 156~020(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, USZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 156~020(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 163~048(Average Objective).
December Australian Dollar(CME): The ADZ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 70.50(Prev Close), the market ended July at 68.69(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 68.65(Month Low) to 71.03(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Australian Dollar(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, ADZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADZ should penetrate 68.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 65.60(Average Objective).
December Palladium(NYMEX): The PAZ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1533.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1523.40(Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 1493.70(Month Low) to 1595.90(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Palladium(NYMEX) also closed lower in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, PAZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAZ should penetrate 1493.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 1322.47(Average Objective).
December Copper(CMX): The HGZ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 272.05(Prev Close), the market ended July at 267.60(Month Close), that being 30%(Pct Range) off of 261.95(Month Low) to 280.60(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Copper(CMX) also closed lower in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, HGZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGZ should penetrate 261.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 238.52(Average Objective).
November Crude Oil(NYM): The CLX9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 58.22(Prev Close), the market ended July at 58.61(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 54.90(Month Low) to 60.77(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CLX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLX should exceed 60.77(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 66.27(Average Objective).
December Crude Oil(NYM): The CLZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 57.98(Prev Close), the market ended July at 58.50(Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 54.80(Month Low) to 60.56(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CLZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLZ should exceed 60.56(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 65.84(Average Objective).
December Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCOZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 63.80(Prev Close), the market ended July at 64.08(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 60.46(Month Low) to 66.56(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, ITCOZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOZ should exceed 66.56(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 73.52(Average Objective).
November NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOX9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 195.89(Prev Close), the market ended July at 197.99(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 187.16(Month Low) to 203.25(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, HOX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOX should exceed 203.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 224.31(Average Objective).
November RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBX9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 165.65(Prev Close), the market ended July at 166.82(Month Close), that being 54%(Pct Range) off of 157.40(Month Low) to 174.75(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, RBX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBX should exceed 174.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 191.58(Average Objective).
December RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 162.69(Prev Close), the market ended July at 163.97(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 154.33(Month Low) to 171.35(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, RBZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBZ should exceed 171.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 186.21(Average Objective).
December Natural Gas(NYM): The NGZ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2.595(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2.520(Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 2.417(Month Low) to 2.768(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NGZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 2.417(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 2.177(Average Objective).
November Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBX9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 64.07(Prev Close), the market ended July at 64.55(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 60.70(Month Low) to 66.90(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CBX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBX should exceed 66.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 74.20(Average Objective).
December Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 63.80(Prev Close), the market ended July at 64.08(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 60.46(Month Low) to 66.56(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CBZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBZ should exceed 66.56(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 73.51(Average Objective).
December Wheat(CBOT): The WZ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 538.50(Prev Close), the market ended July at 493.25(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 490.75(Month Low) to 543.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, WZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should penetrate 490.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 446.30(Average Objective).
October Live Cattle(CME): The LCV9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 105.430(Prev Close), the market ended July at 107.650(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 105.050(Month Low) to 110.600(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, LCV went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 110.600(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 115.233(Average Objective).
September Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 136.700(Prev Close), the market ended July at 142.450(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 136.400(Month Low) to 144.680(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, FCU went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCU should exceed 144.680(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 150.478(Average Objective).
October Lean Hogs(CME): The HEV9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 70.850(Prev Close), the market ended July at 71.000(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 67.430(Month Low) to 81.980(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, HEV went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEV should exceed 81.980(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 87.295(Average Objective).
December Cocoa(ICE): The CCZ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2458(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2400(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 2389(Month Low) to 2606(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CCZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should penetrate 2389(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 2208(Average Objective).
October Cotton(ICE): The CTV9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 65.75(Prev Close), the market ended July at 63.22(Month Close), that being 34%(Pct Range) off of 60.78(Month Low) to 67.86(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CTV went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTV should penetrate 60.78(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 55.83(Average Objective).
December Cotton(ICE): The CTZ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 66.08(Prev Close), the market ended July at 63.84(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 61.66(Month Low) to 68.35(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CTZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should penetrate 61.66(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 57.12(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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