Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home MRCI Online
Print
New Windows

MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary May 31, 2019
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
SPU9 Lower May 2954.30 2953.40 2756.10 2756.10 0% 37 12 11 92% 2756.10 2646.94 2756.10
USU9 Higher May 146~260 154~000 146~030 153~230 96% 41 20 20 100% 154~000 160~016 153~230
TYU9 Higher May 123~285 126~280 123~045 126~240 97% 36 17 15 88% 126~280 130~108 126~240
EDZ9 Higher May 97.560 97.930 97.460 97.905 95% 37 19 16 84% 97.930 98.392 97.905
EUU9 Lower May 113.52 113.95 112.12 112.71 32% 20 13 12 92% 112.12 109.59 112.71
JYU9 Higher May 90.75 93.10 90.55 93.01 96% 42 18 16 89% 93.10 96.48 93.01
DXU9 Higher May 96.660 97.715 96.300 97.135 59% 33 21 19 90% 97.715 99.702 97.135
NGU9 Lower May 2.637 2.741 2.447 2.450 1% 29 16 14 88% 2.447 2.085 2.450
NGV9 Lower May 2.668 2.770 2.497 2.499 1% 29 14 13 93% 2.497 2.146 2.499
SX9 Higher May 874.75 918.50 815.50 904.75 87% 45 20 19 95% 918.50 1029.60 904.75
BOQ9 Lower May 28.02 28.35 26.36 27.72 68% 45 26 23 88% 26.36 23.82 27.72
BOU9 Lower May 28.17 28.47 26.50 27.85 69% 45 24 22 92% 26.50 24.10 27.85
BOV9 Lower May 28.30 28.58 26.65 27.99 69% 45 23 22 96% 26.65 24.39 27.99
CZ9 Higher May 381.00 454.00 363.75 443.75 89% 45 21 18 86% 454.00 491.59 443.75
RRU9 Higher May 10.72 11.98 10.57 11.65 77% 32 13 11 85% 11.98 12.75 11.65
HEQ9 Lower May 93.080 97.800 85.780 86.630 7% 45 23 21 91% 85.780 78.581 86.630
HEV9 Lower May 85.750 89.680 79.130 80.050 9% 45 23 21 91% 79.130 71.072 80.050
SBV9 Lower May 12.69 12.75 11.82 12.43 66% 45 26 22 85% 11.82 10.08 12.43
CCU9 Higher May 2370 2472 2228 2406 73% 45 17 15 88% 2472 2730 2406
CCZ9 Higher May 2376 2471 2242 2418 77% 45 18 16 89% 2471 2754 2418
LBU9 Lower May 348.7 368.9 292.0 313.6 28% 45 20 19 95% 292.0 259.7 313.6
LBX9 Lower May 346.5 363.0 300.0 315.2 24% 45 20 18 90% 300.0 274.1 315.2
CTZ9 Lower May 75.69 75.74 65.25 67.07 17% 45 25 22 88% 65.25 60.53 67.07


September S & P 500(CME)
The SPU9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2954.30(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2756.10(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 2756.10(Month Low) to 2953.40(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, SPU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should penetrate 2756.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2646.94(Average Objective).

September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 146~260(Prev Close), the market ended May at 153~230(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 146~030(Month Low) to 154~000(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, USU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should exceed 154~000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 160~016(Average Objective).

September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 123~285(Prev Close), the market ended May at 126~240(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 123~045(Month Low) to 126~280(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, TYU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should exceed 126~280(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 130~108(Average Objective).

December Eurodollars(CME)
The EDZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 97.560(Prev Close), the market ended May at 97.905(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 97.460(Month Low) to 97.930(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, EDZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 97.930(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 98.392(Average Objective).

September EuroFX(CME)
The EUU9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 113.52(Prev Close), the market ended May at 112.71(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 112.12(Month Low) to 113.95(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September EuroFX(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, EUU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUU should penetrate 112.12(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 109.59(Average Objective).

September Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 90.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 93.01(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 90.55(Month Low) to 93.10(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Japanese Yen(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, JYU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYU should exceed 93.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 96.48(Average Objective).

September US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 96.660(Prev Close), the market ended May at 97.135(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 96.300(Month Low) to 97.715(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, DXU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should exceed 97.715(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 99.702(Average Objective).

September Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGU9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2.637(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2.450(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 2.447(Month Low) to 2.741(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in May than April in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NGU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should penetrate 2.447(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 2.085(Average Objective).

October Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGV9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2.668(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2.499(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 2.497(Month Low) to 2.770(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in May than April in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NGV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGV should penetrate 2.497(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2.146(Average Objective).

November Soybeans(CBOT)
The SX9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 874.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 904.75(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 815.50(Month Low) to 918.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should exceed 918.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1029.60(Average Objective).

August Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOQ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 28.02(Prev Close), the market ended May at 27.72(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 26.36(Month Low) to 28.35(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, BOQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOQ should penetrate 26.36(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 23.82(Average Objective).

September Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOU9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 28.17(Prev Close), the market ended May at 27.85(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 26.50(Month Low) to 28.47(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, BOU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOU should penetrate 26.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 24.10(Average Objective).

October Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOV9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 28.30(Prev Close), the market ended May at 27.99(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 26.65(Month Low) to 28.58(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, BOV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOV should penetrate 26.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 24.39(Average Objective).

December Corn(CBOT)
The CZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 381.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 443.75(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 363.75(Month Low) to 454.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should exceed 454.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 491.59(Average Objective).

September Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 10.72(Prev Close), the market ended May at 11.65(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 10.57(Month Low) to 11.98(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RRU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should exceed 11.98(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 12.75(Average Objective).

August Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEQ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 93.080(Prev Close), the market ended May at 86.630(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 85.780(Month Low) to 97.800(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, HEQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEQ should penetrate 85.780(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 78.581(Average Objective).

October Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEV9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 85.750(Prev Close), the market ended May at 80.050(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 79.130(Month Low) to 89.680(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, HEV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEV should penetrate 79.130(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 71.072(Average Objective).

October Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBV9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 12.69(Prev Close), the market ended May at 12.43(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 11.82(Month Low) to 12.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SBV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should penetrate 11.82(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 10.08(Average Objective).

September Cocoa(ICE)
The CCU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2370(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2406(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 2228(Month Low) to 2472(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CCU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCU should exceed 2472(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 2730(Average Objective).

December Cocoa(ICE)
The CCZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2376(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2418(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 2242(Month Low) to 2471(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CCZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should exceed 2471(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 2754(Average Objective).

September Lumber(CME)
The LBU9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 348.7(Prev Close), the market ended May at 313.6(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 292.0(Month Low) to 368.9(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Lumber(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LBU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBU should penetrate 292.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 259.7(Average Objective).

November Lumber(CME)
The LBX9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 346.5(Prev Close), the market ended May at 315.2(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 300.0(Month Low) to 363.0(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Lumber(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LBX went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBX should penetrate 300.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 274.1(Average Objective).

December Cotton(ICE)
The CTZ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 75.69(Prev Close), the market ended May at 67.07(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 65.25(Month Low) to 75.74(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CTZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should penetrate 65.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 60.53(Average Objective).
Banner

Login

Newsflash