MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary May 31, 2019

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

SPU9

Lower

May

2954.30

2953.40

2756.10

92%

2756.10

2646.94

2756.10

USU9

Higher

May

146~260

154~000

146~030

153~230

96%

100%

154~000

160~016

153~230

TYU9

Higher

May

123~285

126~280

123~045

126~240

97%

88%

126~280

130~108

126~240

EDZ9

Higher

May

97.560

97.930

97.460

97.905

95%

84%

97.930

98.392

97.905

EUU9

Lower

May

113.52

113.95

112.12

112.71

32%

92%

112.12

109.59

112.71

JYU9

Higher

May

90.75

93.10

90.55

93.01

96%

89%

93.10

96.48

93.01

DXU9

Higher

May

96.660

97.715

96.300

97.135

59%

90%

97.715

99.702

97.135

NGU9

Lower

May

2.637

2.741

2.447

2.450

88%

2.447

2.085

2.450

NGV9

Lower

May

2.668

2.770

2.497

2.499

93%

2.497

2.146

2.499

SX9

Higher

May

874.75

918.50

815.50

904.75

87%

95%

918.50

1029.60

904.75

BOQ9

Lower

May

28.02

28.35

26.36

27.72

68%

88%

26.36

23.82

27.72

BOU9

Lower

May

28.17

28.47

26.50

27.85

69%

92%

26.50

24.10

27.85

BOV9

Lower

May

28.30

28.58

26.65

27.99

69%

96%

26.65

24.39

27.99

CZ9

Higher

May

381.00

454.00

363.75

443.75

89%

86%

454.00

491.59

443.75

RRU9

Higher

May

10.72

11.98

10.57

11.65

77%

85%

11.98

12.75

11.65

HEQ9

Lower

May

93.080

97.800

85.780

86.630

91%

85.780

78.581

86.630

HEV9

Lower

May

85.750

89.680

79.130

80.050

91%

79.130

71.072

80.050

SBV9

Lower

May

12.69

12.75

11.82

12.43

66%

85%

11.82

10.08

12.43

CCU9

Higher

May

2370

2472

2228

2406

73%

88%

2472

2730

2406

CCZ9

Higher

May

2376

2471

2242

2418

77%

89%

2471

2754

2418

LBU9

Lower

May

348.7

368.9

292.0

313.6

28%

95%

292.0

259.7

313.6

LBX9

Lower

May

346.5

363.0

300.0

315.2

24%

90%

300.0

274.1

315.2

CTZ9

Lower

May

75.69

75.74

65.25

67.07

17%

88%

65.25

60.53

67.07

September S & P 500(CME): The SPU9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2954.30(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2756.10(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 2756.10(Month Low) to 2953.40(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, SPU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should penetrate 2756.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2646.94(Average Objective).
September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 146~260(Prev Close), the market ended May at 153~230(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 146~030(Month Low) to 154~000(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, USU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should exceed 154~000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 160~016(Average Objective).
September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 123~285(Prev Close), the market ended May at 126~240(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 123~045(Month Low) to 126~280(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, TYU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should exceed 126~280(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 130~108(Average Objective).
December Eurodollars(CME): The EDZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 97.560(Prev Close), the market ended May at 97.905(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 97.460(Month Low) to 97.930(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, EDZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 97.930(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 98.392(Average Objective).
September EuroFX(CME): The EUU9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 113.52(Prev Close), the market ended May at 112.71(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 112.12(Month Low) to 113.95(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September EuroFX(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, EUU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUU should penetrate 112.12(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 109.59(Average Objective).
September Japanese Yen(CME): The JYU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 90.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 93.01(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 90.55(Month Low) to 93.10(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Japanese Yen(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, JYU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYU should exceed 93.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 96.48(Average Objective).
September US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 96.660(Prev Close), the market ended May at 97.135(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 96.300(Month Low) to 97.715(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, DXU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should exceed 97.715(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 99.702(Average Objective).
September Natural Gas(NYM): The NGU9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2.637(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2.450(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 2.447(Month Low) to 2.741(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in May than April in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NGU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should penetrate 2.447(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 2.085(Average Objective).
October Natural Gas(NYM): The NGV9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2.668(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2.499(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 2.497(Month Low) to 2.770(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in May than April in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NGV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGV should penetrate 2.497(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2.146(Average Objective).
November Soybeans(CBOT): The SX9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 874.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 904.75(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 815.50(Month Low) to 918.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should exceed 918.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1029.60(Average Objective).
August Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOQ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 28.02(Prev Close), the market ended May at 27.72(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 26.36(Month Low) to 28.35(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, BOQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOQ should penetrate 26.36(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 23.82(Average Objective).
September Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOU9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 28.17(Prev Close), the market ended May at 27.85(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 26.50(Month Low) to 28.47(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, BOU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOU should penetrate 26.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 24.10(Average Objective).
October Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOV9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 28.30(Prev Close), the market ended May at 27.99(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 26.65(Month Low) to 28.58(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, BOV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOV should penetrate 26.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 24.39(Average Objective).
December Corn(CBOT): The CZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 381.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 443.75(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 363.75(Month Low) to 454.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should exceed 454.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 491.59(Average Objective).
September Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 10.72(Prev Close), the market ended May at 11.65(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 10.57(Month Low) to 11.98(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RRU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should exceed 11.98(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 12.75(Average Objective).
August Lean Hogs(CME): The HEQ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 93.080(Prev Close), the market ended May at 86.630(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 85.780(Month Low) to 97.800(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, HEQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEQ should penetrate 85.780(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 78.581(Average Objective).
October Lean Hogs(CME): The HEV9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 85.750(Prev Close), the market ended May at 80.050(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 79.130(Month Low) to 89.680(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, HEV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEV should penetrate 79.130(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 71.072(Average Objective).
October Sugar #11(ICE): The SBV9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 12.69(Prev Close), the market ended May at 12.43(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 11.82(Month Low) to 12.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SBV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should penetrate 11.82(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 10.08(Average Objective).
September Cocoa(ICE): The CCU9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2370(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2406(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 2228(Month Low) to 2472(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CCU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCU should exceed 2472(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 2730(Average Objective).
December Cocoa(ICE): The CCZ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2376(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2418(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 2242(Month Low) to 2471(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CCZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should exceed 2471(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 2754(Average Objective).
September Lumber(CME): The LBU9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 348.7(Prev Close), the market ended May at 313.6(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 292.0(Month Low) to 368.9(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Lumber(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LBU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBU should penetrate 292.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 259.7(Average Objective).
November Lumber(CME): The LBX9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 346.5(Prev Close), the market ended May at 315.2(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 300.0(Month Low) to 363.0(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Lumber(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LBX went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBX should penetrate 300.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 274.1(Average Objective).
December Cotton(ICE): The CTZ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 75.69(Prev Close), the market ended May at 67.07(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 65.25(Month Low) to 75.74(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CTZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should penetrate 65.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 60.53(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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