MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Feb 28, 2019

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Feb

25000.00

26241.00

24883.00

25916.00

76%

96%

26241.00

27594.93

25916.00

#UTIL

Higher

Feb

727.25

759.20

716.35

756.35

93%

94%

759.20

796.14

756.35

#OEX

Higher

Feb

536.32

580.24

523.58

568.19

79%

88%

580.24

610.07

568.19

#NDX

Higher

Feb

6906.75

7161.50

6836.50

7097.50

80%

94%

7161.50

7692.90

7097.50

#MID

Higher

Feb

1835.40

1946.30

1831.30

1910.35

69%

96%

1946.30

2052.17

1910.35

#VLE

Higher

Feb

5988.20

6322.10

5945.60

6226.20

75%

92%

6322.10

6646.06

6226.20

#SP

Higher

Feb

2704.10

2813.50

2681.85

2784.50

78%

85%

2813.50

2947.83

2784.50

SPM9

Higher

Feb

2709.80

2802.30

2690.50

2789.90

89%

87%

2802.30

2929.56

2789.90

USM9

Lower

Feb

146~020

146~170

144~060

144~150

12%

85%

144~060

139~180

144~150

TYM9

Lower

Feb

122~245

122~255

121~270

122~000

16%

88%

121~270

119~089

122~000

EDM9

Higher

Feb

97.375

97.415

97.330

97.395

76%

88%

97.415

97.620

97.395

SFM9

Lower

Feb

101.83

102.06

100.18

101.24

56%

95%

100.18

96.60

101.24

EUM9

Lower

Feb

115.76

116.20

113.50

114.81

49%

90%

113.50

109.55

114.81

JYM9

Lower

Feb

92.85

92.91

90.46

90.52

84%

90.46

86.19

90.52

DXM9

Higher

Feb

94.795

96.685

94.600

95.558

46%

93%

96.685

99.291

95.558

GCM9

Lower

Feb

1331.6

1356.0

1311.3

1322.7

26%

91%

1311.3

1232.9

1322.7

CLK9

Higher

Feb

54.31

58.28

52.16

57.61

89%

86%

58.28

65.16

57.61

CLM9

Higher

Feb

54.60

58.76

52.71

58.06

88%

86%

58.76

65.28

58.06

CLN9

Higher

Feb

54.86

59.19

53.20

58.49

88%

90%

59.19

65.16

58.49

ITCON9

Higher

Feb

60.99

67.59

60.58

66.23

81%

94%

67.59

74.57

66.23

HOK9

Higher

Feb

186.66

204.21

185.27

202.17

89%

204.21

226.34

202.17

HOM9

Higher

Feb

186.90

203.99

185.58

201.84

88%

89%

203.99

225.15

201.84

HON9

Higher

Feb

187.73

204.32

186.78

202.16

88%

89%

204.32

224.39

202.16

RBK9

Higher

Feb

159.92

179.40

159.40

176.58

86%

100%

179.40

207.01

176.58

RBM9

Higher

Feb

160.70

179.80

160.09

176.92

85%

100%

179.80

205.14

176.92

RBN9

Higher

Feb

160.75

179.38

160.14

176.59

85%

100%

179.38

203.05

176.59

WU9

Lower

Feb

535.75

542.25

475.25

476.75

88%

475.25

447.43

476.75

KWK9

Lower

Feb

508.75

520.50

440.25

444.50

92%

440.25

413.52

444.50

KWN9

Lower

Feb

519.00

528.50

450.75

453.25

88%

450.75

424.78

453.25

KWU9

Lower

Feb

529.50

537.50

463.75

464.75

88%

463.75

439.37

464.75

HEK9

Lower

Feb

67.430

70.050

62.650

65.700

41%

100%

62.650

54.802

65.700

HEM9

Higher

Feb

75.300

78.150

72.200

75.900

62%

90%

78.150

84.772

75.900

KCK9

Lower

Feb

109.00

110.10

96.35

98.45

15%

85%

96.35

87.77

98.45

KCN9

Lower

Feb

111.75

112.85

99.20

101.15

14%

85%

99.20

90.51

101.15

CTK9

Lower

Feb

75.66

75.94

71.01

72.82

37%

89%

71.01

65.91

72.82

CTN9

Lower

Feb

76.90

77.16

72.33

73.99

34%

89%

72.33

67.50

73.99

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 25000.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 25916.00(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 24883.00(Month Low) to 26241.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in February than January in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #DJ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 26241.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 27594.93(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 727.25(Prev Close), the market ended February at 756.35(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 716.35(Month Low) to 759.20(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in February than January in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #UTIL went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 759.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 796.14(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 536.32(Prev Close), the market ended February at 568.19(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 523.58(Month Low) to 580.24(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #OEX went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 580.24(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 610.07(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 6906.75(Prev Close), the market ended February at 7097.50(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 6836.50(Month Low) to 7161.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in February than January in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #NDX went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 7161.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 7692.90(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1835.40(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1910.35(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 1831.30(Month Low) to 1946.30(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in February than January in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #MID went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1946.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 2052.17(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 5988.20(Prev Close), the market ended February at 6226.20(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 5945.60(Month Low) to 6322.10(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in February than January in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #VLE went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 6322.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 6646.06(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 2704.10(Prev Close), the market ended February at 2784.50(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 2681.85(Month Low) to 2813.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in February than January in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #SP went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2813.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 2947.83(Average Objective).
June S & P 500(CME): The SPM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 2709.80(Prev Close), the market ended February at 2789.90(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 2690.50(Month Low) to 2802.30(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SPM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should exceed 2802.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 2929.56(Average Objective).
June 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USM9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 146~020(Prev Close), the market ended February at 144~150(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 144~060(Month Low) to 146~170(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, USM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USM should penetrate 144~060(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 139~180(Average Objective).
June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYM9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 122~245(Prev Close), the market ended February at 122~000(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 121~270(Month Low) to 122~255(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, TYM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYM should penetrate 121~270(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 119~089(Average Objective).
June Eurodollars(CME): The EDM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 97.375(Prev Close), the market ended February at 97.395(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 97.330(Month Low) to 97.415(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, EDM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 97.415(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 97.620(Average Objective).
June Swiss Franc(CME): The SFM9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 101.83(Prev Close), the market ended February at 101.24(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 100.18(Month Low) to 102.06(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SFM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFM should penetrate 100.18(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 96.60(Average Objective).
June EuroFX(CME): The EUM9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 115.76(Prev Close), the market ended February at 114.81(Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 113.50(Month Low) to 116.20(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June EuroFX(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, EUM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUM should penetrate 113.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 109.55(Average Objective).
June Japanese Yen(CME): The JYM9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 92.85(Prev Close), the market ended February at 90.52(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 90.46(Month Low) to 92.91(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, JYM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYM should penetrate 90.46(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 86.19(Average Objective).
June US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 94.795(Prev Close), the market ended February at 95.558(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 94.600(Month Low) to 96.685(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, DXM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXM should exceed 96.685(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 99.291(Average Objective).
June Gold(CMX): The GCM9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1331.6(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1322.7(Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 1311.3(Month Low) to 1356.0(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Gold(CMX) also closed lower in February than January in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, GCM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCM should penetrate 1311.3(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1232.9(Average Objective).
May Crude Oil(NYM): The CLK9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 54.31(Prev Close), the market ended February at 57.61(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 52.16(Month Low) to 58.28(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CLK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLK should exceed 58.28(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 65.16(Average Objective).
June Crude Oil(NYM): The CLM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 54.60(Prev Close), the market ended February at 58.06(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 52.71(Month Low) to 58.76(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CLM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLM should exceed 58.76(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 65.28(Average Objective).
July Crude Oil(NYM): The CLN9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 54.86(Prev Close), the market ended February at 58.49(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 53.20(Month Low) to 59.19(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CLN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLN should exceed 59.19(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 65.16(Average Objective).
July Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCON9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 60.99(Prev Close), the market ended February at 66.23(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 60.58(Month Low) to 67.59(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, ITCON went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCON should exceed 67.59(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 74.57(Average Objective).
May NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOK9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 186.66(Prev Close), the market ended February at 202.17(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 185.27(Month Low) to 204.21(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HOK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOK should exceed 204.21(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 226.34(Average Objective).
June NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 186.90(Prev Close), the market ended February at 201.84(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 185.58(Month Low) to 203.99(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HOM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOM should exceed 203.99(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 225.15(Average Objective).
July NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HON9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 187.73(Prev Close), the market ended February at 202.16(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 186.78(Month Low) to 204.32(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HON went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HON should exceed 204.32(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 224.39(Average Objective).
May RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBK9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 159.92(Prev Close), the market ended February at 176.58(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 159.40(Month Low) to 179.40(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, RBK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBK should exceed 179.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 207.01(Average Objective).
June RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 160.70(Prev Close), the market ended February at 176.92(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 160.09(Month Low) to 179.80(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RBM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBM should exceed 179.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 205.14(Average Objective).
July RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBN9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 160.75(Prev Close), the market ended February at 176.59(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 160.14(Month Low) to 179.38(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RBN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBN should exceed 179.38(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 203.05(Average Objective).
September Wheat(CBOT): The WU9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 535.75(Prev Close), the market ended February at 476.75(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 475.25(Month Low) to 542.25(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, WU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WU should penetrate 475.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 447.43(Average Objective).
May Wheat(KCBT): The KWK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 508.75(Prev Close), the market ended February at 444.50(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 440.25(Month Low) to 520.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, KWK went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should penetrate 440.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 413.52(Average Objective).
July Wheat(KCBT): The KWN9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 519.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 453.25(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 450.75(Month Low) to 528.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, KWN went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWN should penetrate 450.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 424.78(Average Objective).
September Wheat(KCBT): The KWU9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 529.50(Prev Close), the market ended February at 464.75(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 463.75(Month Low) to 537.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in February than January in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, KWU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should penetrate 463.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 439.37(Average Objective).
May Lean Hogs(CME): The HEK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 67.430(Prev Close), the market ended February at 65.700(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 62.650(Month Low) to 70.050(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, HEK went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEK should penetrate 62.650(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 54.802(Average Objective).
June Lean Hogs(CME): The HEM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 75.300(Prev Close), the market ended February at 75.900(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 72.200(Month Low) to 78.150(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, HEM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEM should exceed 78.150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 84.772(Average Objective).
May Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 109.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 98.45(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 96.35(Month Low) to 110.10(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in February than January in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, KCK went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCK should penetrate 96.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 87.77(Average Objective).
July Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCN9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 111.75(Prev Close), the market ended February at 101.15(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 99.20(Month Low) to 112.85(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in February than January in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, KCN went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCN should penetrate 99.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 90.51(Average Objective).
May Cotton(ICE): The CTK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 75.66(Prev Close), the market ended February at 72.82(Month Close), that being 37%(Pct Range) off of 71.01(Month Low) to 75.94(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in February than January in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CTK went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTK should penetrate 71.01(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 65.91(Average Objective).
July Cotton(ICE): The CTN9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 76.90(Prev Close), the market ended February at 73.99(Month Close), that being 34%(Pct Range) off of 72.33(Month Low) to 77.16(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in February than January in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CTN went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTN should penetrate 72.33(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 67.50(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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