MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Jan 31, 2019

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Jan

23327.00

25110.00

22638.00

25000.00

96%

93%

25110.00

26457.91

25000.00

#TRAN

Higher

Jan

9170.00

10122.00

8850.00

10059.00

95%

89%

10122.00

10878.67

10059.00

#MID

Higher

Jan

1663.05

1837.35

1624.70

1835.40

99%

91%

1837.35

1933.85

1835.40

#VLE

Higher

Jan

5386.00

5996.80

5295.80

5988.20

99%

90%

5996.80

6325.38

5988.20

#SP

Higher

Jan

2506.85

2708.95

2443.95

2704.10

98%

89%

2708.95

2857.47

2704.10

SPM9

Higher

Jan

2508.50

2709.80

2450.90

2709.80

100%

87%

2709.80

2860.01

2709.80

DXM9

Lower

Jan

95.235

96.010

94.150

94.795

35%

87%

94.150

91.535

94.795

PLJ9

Higher

Jan

800.6

836.5

787.9

824.7

76%

90%

836.5

915.1

824.7

PAM9

Higher

Jan

1181.80

1381.20

1177.10

1289.40

55%

87%

1381.20

1579.82

1289.40

HGK9

Higher

Jan

263.70

280.40

255.20

279.35

96%

280.40

308.08

279.35

CLK9

Higher

Jan

46.51

55.85

45.52

54.31

85%

94%

55.85

61.66

54.31

CLM9

Higher

Jan

46.93

56.10

45.92

54.60

85%

95%

56.10

61.54

54.60

ITCOK9

Higher

Jan

54.31

63.05

53.08

60.93

79%

88%

63.05

70.38

60.93

ITCOM9

Higher

Jan

54.57

63.15

53.35

61.02

78%

93%

63.15

69.51

61.02

RBK9

Higher

Jan

150.23

168.34

147.36

159.92

60%

90%

168.34

186.81

159.92

CBK9

Higher

Jan

54.31

63.05

53.08

60.93

79%

88%

63.05

70.37

60.93

BOK9

Higher

Jan

28.12

30.80

28.11

30.48

88%

89%

30.80

34.15

30.48

CK9

Higher

Jan

383.00

392.25

379.75

385.25

44%

88%

392.25

421.06

385.25

CN9

Higher

Jan

390.75

399.50

387.50

392.75

44%

92%

399.50

429.49

392.75

OK9

Higher

Jan

278.00

295.75

274.00

284.25

47%

89%

295.75

327.55

284.25

ON9

Higher

Jan

279.75

293.75

275.00

283.75

47%

88%

293.75

321.85

283.75

HEJ9

Lower

Jan

67.080

69.030

60.050

60.230

84%

60.050

53.730

60.230

SBN9

Higher

Jan

12.24

13.45

11.99

13.01

70%

86%

13.45

15.32

13.01

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 23327.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 25000.00(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 22638.00(Month Low) to 25110.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in January than December in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #DJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 25110.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 26457.91(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 9170.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 10059.00(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 8850.00(Month Low) to 10122.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in January than December in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #TRAN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 10122.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 10878.67(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1663.05(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1835.40(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 1624.70(Month Low) to 1837.35(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #MID went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1837.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1933.85(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 5386.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 5988.20(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 5295.80(Month Low) to 5996.80(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #VLE went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 5996.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 6325.38(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2506.85(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2704.10(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 2443.95(Month Low) to 2708.95(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in January than December in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #SP went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2708.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 2857.47(Average Objective).
June S & P 500(CME): The SPM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2508.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2709.80(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 2450.90(Month Low) to 2709.80(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SPM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should exceed 2709.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 2860.01(Average Objective).
June US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXM9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 95.235(Prev Close), the market ended January at 94.795(Month Close), that being 35%(Pct Range) off of 94.150(Month Low) to 96.010(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, DXM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXM should penetrate 94.150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 91.535(Average Objective).
April Platinum(NYMEX): The PLJ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 800.6(Prev Close), the market ended January at 824.7(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 787.9(Month Low) to 836.5(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Platinum(NYMEX) also closed higher in January than December in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, PLJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLJ should exceed 836.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 915.1(Average Objective).
June Palladium(NYMEX): The PAM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1181.80(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1289.40(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 1177.10(Month Low) to 1381.20(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in January than December in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, PAM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAM should exceed 1381.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 1579.82(Average Objective).
May Copper(CMX): The HGK9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 263.70(Prev Close), the market ended January at 279.35(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 255.20(Month Low) to 280.40(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Copper(CMX) also closed higher in January than December in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, HGK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGK should exceed 280.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 308.08(Average Objective).
May Crude Oil(NYM): The CLK9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 46.51(Prev Close), the market ended January at 54.31(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 45.52(Month Low) to 55.85(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CLK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLK should exceed 55.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 61.66(Average Objective).
June Crude Oil(NYM): The CLM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 46.93(Prev Close), the market ended January at 54.60(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 45.92(Month Low) to 56.10(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CLM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLM should exceed 56.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 61.54(Average Objective).
May Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCOK9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 54.31(Prev Close), the market ended January at 60.93(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 53.08(Month Low) to 63.05(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, ITCOK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOK should exceed 63.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 70.38(Average Objective).
June Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCOM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 54.57(Prev Close), the market ended January at 61.02(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 53.35(Month Low) to 63.15(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, ITCOM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOM should exceed 63.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 69.51(Average Objective).
May RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBK9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 150.23(Prev Close), the market ended January at 159.92(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 147.36(Month Low) to 168.34(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, RBK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBK should exceed 168.34(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 186.81(Average Objective).
May Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBK9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 54.31(Prev Close), the market ended January at 60.93(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 53.08(Month Low) to 63.05(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CBK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBK should exceed 63.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 70.37(Average Objective).
May Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOK9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 28.12(Prev Close), the market ended January at 30.48(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 28.11(Month Low) to 30.80(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, BOK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOK should exceed 30.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 34.15(Average Objective).
May Corn(CBOT): The CK9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 383.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 385.25(Month Close), that being 44%(Pct Range) off of 379.75(Month Low) to 392.25(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CK should exceed 392.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 421.06(Average Objective).
July Corn(CBOT): The CN9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 390.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 392.75(Month Close), that being 44%(Pct Range) off of 387.50(Month Low) to 399.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, CN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should exceed 399.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 429.49(Average Objective).
May Oats(CBOT): The OK9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 278.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 284.25(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 274.00(Month Low) to 295.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Oats(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, OK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OK should exceed 295.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 327.55(Average Objective).
July Oats(CBOT): The ON9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 279.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 283.75(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 275.00(Month Low) to 293.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Oats(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, ON went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ON should exceed 293.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 321.85(Average Objective).
April Lean Hogs(CME): The HEJ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 67.080(Prev Close), the market ended January at 60.230(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 60.050(Month Low) to 69.030(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HEJ went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEJ should penetrate 60.050(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 53.730(Average Objective).
July Sugar #11(ICE): The SBN9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 12.24(Prev Close), the market ended January at 13.01(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 11.99(Month Low) to 13.45(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SBN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBN should exceed 13.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 15.32(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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