MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Nov 30, 2018

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Nov

25116.00

26278.00

24269.00

25538.00

63%

90%

26278.00

27657.48

25538.00

#TRAN

Higher

Nov

10191.00

10835.00

10174.00

10820.00

98%

88%

10835.00

11740.81

10820.00

#OEX

Higher

Nov

553.48

597.76

505.76

569.83

70%

89%

597.76

636.25

569.83

#MID

Higher

Nov

1825.10

1911.90

1801.60

1878.65

70%

96%

1911.90

2019.10

1878.65

#VLE

Higher

Nov

5958.60

6217.90

5816.80

6053.90

59%

96%

6217.90

6570.76

6053.90

#SSNI

Higher

Nov

21920

22583

21243

22351

83%

85%

22583

23785

22351

#SP

Higher

Nov

2711.75

2815.15

2631.10

2760.15

70%

90%

2815.15

2961.07

2760.15

SPH9

Higher

Nov

2717.30

2823.20

2634.70

2763.50

68%

96%

2823.20

2962.02

2763.50

TYH9

Higher

Nov

118~060

119~215

117~150

119~145

90%

95%

119~215

122~186

119~145

EDM9

Higher

Nov

96.960

97.110

96.900

97.085

88%

89%

97.110

97.730

97.085

JYH9

Lower

Nov

89.50

89.91

88.45

88.84

27%

92%

88.45

85.34

88.84

SIH9

Lower

Nov

1439.9

1504.0

1398.5

1421.7

22%

86%

1398.5

1293.8

1421.7

PAH9

Higher

Nov

1062.00

1173.30

1056.20

1144.60

75%

90%

1173.30

1354.32

1144.60

HGH9

Higher

Nov

267.80

284.80

266.15

278.75

68%

86%

284.80

313.19

278.75

CLK9

Lower

Nov

65.99

66.02

50.16

51.50

84%

50.16

42.23

51.50

HOH9

Lower

Nov

223.42

223.53

177.32

181.53

100%

177.32

154.42

181.53

HOJ9

Lower

Nov

222.25

222.33

176.59

180.67

95%

176.59

151.75

180.67

HOK9

Lower

Nov

221.65

221.44

176.92

180.79

89%

176.92

154.32

180.79

RBJ9

Lower

Nov

198.37

199.02

158.08

161.95

87%

158.08

137.00

161.95

RBK9

Lower

Nov

199.71

200.39

159.97

163.27

87%

159.97

139.64

163.27

WH9

Lower

Nov

516.00

529.00

503.25

515.75

49%

92%

503.25

458.55

515.75

WK9

Lower

Nov

527.50

540.25

509.75

521.25

38%

92%

509.75

468.86

521.25

KWH9

Lower

Nov

518.00

533.75

482.25

500.25

35%

87%

482.25

445.57

500.25

KWK9

Lower

Nov

531.75

546.75

495.50

511.25

31%

88%

495.50

458.65

511.25

CTH9

Higher

Nov

78.30

82.00

77.18

78.91

36%

86%

82.00

90.17

78.91

CTK9

Higher

Nov

79.49

83.21

78.44

79.95

32%

85%

83.21

90.73

79.95

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 25116.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 25538.00(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 24269.00(Month Low) to 26278.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in November than October in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, the #DJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 26278.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 27657.48(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 10191.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 10820.00(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 10174.00(Month Low) to 10835.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in November than October in 33(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 33, the #TRAN went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 29 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 10835.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 29 years) a potential move toward 11740.81(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 553.48(Prev Close), the market ended November at 569.83(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 505.76(Month Low) to 597.76(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in November than October in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #OEX went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 597.76(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 636.25(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1825.10(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1878.65(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 1801.60(Month Low) to 1911.90(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in November than October in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #MID went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1911.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 2019.10(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 5958.60(Prev Close), the market ended November at 6053.90(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 5816.80(Month Low) to 6217.90(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in November than October in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #VLE went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 6217.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 6570.76(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 21920(Prev Close), the market ended November at 22351(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 21243(Month Low) to 22583(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in November than October in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #SSNI went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 22583(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 23785(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 2711.75(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2760.15(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 2631.10(Month Low) to 2815.15(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in November than October in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, the #SP went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2815.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 2961.07(Average Objective).
March S & P 500(CME): The SPH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 2717.30(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2763.50(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 2634.70(Month Low) to 2823.20(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SPH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPH should exceed 2823.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 2962.02(Average Objective).
March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 118~060(Prev Close), the market ended November at 119~145(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 117~150(Month Low) to 119~215(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, TYH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 119~215(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 122~186(Average Objective).
June Eurodollars(CME): The EDM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 96.960(Prev Close), the market ended November at 97.085(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 96.900(Month Low) to 97.110(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, EDM went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 97.110(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 97.730(Average Objective).
March Japanese Yen(CME): The JYH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 89.50(Prev Close), the market ended November at 88.84(Month Close), that being 27%(Pct Range) off of 88.45(Month Low) to 89.91(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in November than October in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, JYH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 88.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 85.34(Average Objective).
March Silver(CMX): The SIH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1439.9(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1421.7(Month Close), that being 22%(Pct Range) off of 1398.5(Month Low) to 1504.0(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Silver(CMX) also closed lower in November than October in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, SIH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIH should penetrate 1398.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 1293.8(Average Objective).
March Palladium(NYMEX): The PAH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1062.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1144.60(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 1056.20(Month Low) to 1173.30(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in November than October in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, PAH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAH should exceed 1173.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1354.32(Average Objective).
March Copper(CMX): The HGH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 267.80(Prev Close), the market ended November at 278.75(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 266.15(Month Low) to 284.80(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Copper(CMX) also closed higher in November than October in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, HGH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGH should exceed 284.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 313.19(Average Objective).
May Crude Oil(NYM): The CLK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 65.99(Prev Close), the market ended November at 51.50(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 50.16(Month Low) to 66.02(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CLK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLK should penetrate 50.16(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 42.23(Average Objective).
March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 223.42(Prev Close), the market ended November at 181.53(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 177.32(Month Low) to 223.53(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, HOH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should penetrate 177.32(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 154.42(Average Objective).
April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOJ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 222.25(Prev Close), the market ended November at 180.67(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 176.59(Month Low) to 222.33(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, HOJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should penetrate 176.59(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 151.75(Average Objective).
May NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 221.65(Prev Close), the market ended November at 180.79(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 176.92(Month Low) to 221.44(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HOK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOK should penetrate 176.92(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 154.32(Average Objective).
April RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBJ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 198.37(Prev Close), the market ended November at 161.95(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 158.08(Month Low) to 199.02(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, RBJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBJ should penetrate 158.08(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 137.00(Average Objective).
May RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 199.71(Prev Close), the market ended November at 163.27(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 159.97(Month Low) to 200.39(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, RBK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBK should penetrate 159.97(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 139.64(Average Objective).
March Wheat(CBOT): The WH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 516.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 515.75(Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 503.25(Month Low) to 529.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in November than October in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, WH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WH should penetrate 503.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 458.55(Average Objective).
May Wheat(CBOT): The WK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 527.50(Prev Close), the market ended November at 521.25(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 509.75(Month Low) to 540.25(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in November than October in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, WK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WK should penetrate 509.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 468.86(Average Objective).
March Wheat(KCBT): The KWH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 518.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 500.25(Month Close), that being 35%(Pct Range) off of 482.25(Month Low) to 533.75(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in November than October in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, KWH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWH should penetrate 482.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 445.57(Average Objective).
May Wheat(KCBT): The KWK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 531.75(Prev Close), the market ended November at 511.25(Month Close), that being 31%(Pct Range) off of 495.50(Month Low) to 546.75(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in November than October in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, KWK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should penetrate 495.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 458.65(Average Objective).
March Cotton(ICE): The CTH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 78.30(Prev Close), the market ended November at 78.91(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 77.18(Month Low) to 82.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in November than October in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CTH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTH should exceed 82.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 90.17(Average Objective).
May Cotton(ICE): The CTK9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 79.49(Prev Close), the market ended November at 79.95(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 78.44(Month Low) to 83.21(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in November than October in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CTK went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTK should exceed 83.21(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 90.73(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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