MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Oct 31, 2018

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

SFH9

Lower

Oct

103.83

103.39

100.46

100.56

86%

100.46

97.05

100.56

CLG9

Lower

Oct

72.70

76.40

65.09

65.58

94%

65.09

57.05

65.58

CLH9

Lower

Oct

72.51

76.29

65.26

65.73

94%

65.26

57.58

65.73

CLJ9

Lower

Oct

72.31

76.01

65.50

65.88

95%

65.50

58.19

65.88

ITCOH9

Lower

Oct

81.53

85.58

74.64

75.09

93%

74.64

63.79

75.09

ITCOJ9

Lower

Oct

81.24

85.27

74.63

75.08

88%

74.63

64.03

75.08

HOG9

Lower

Oct

235.27

245.43

222.85

224.28

86%

222.85

192.38

224.28

HOH9

Lower

Oct

234.50

244.76

222.13

223.42

89%

222.13

191.04

223.42

HOJ9

Lower

Oct

233.34

243.33

221.07

222.25

89%

221.07

192.04

222.25

CBG9

Lower

Oct

81.83

85.89

74.61

75.06

93%

74.61

63.91

75.06

CBH9

Lower

Oct

81.53

85.58

74.64

75.09

93%

74.64

63.79

75.09

CBJ9

Lower

Oct

81.24

85.27

74.63

75.08

88%

74.63

64.03

75.08

WK9

Lower

Oct

538.25

557.50

519.75

527.50

21%

85%

519.75

478.97

527.50

CCH9

Higher

Oct

2082

2284

2008

2253

89%

88%

2284

2470

2253

CCK9

Higher

Oct

2099

2288

2023

2263

91%

93%

2288

2470

2263

March Swiss Franc(CME): The SFH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 103.83(Prev Close), the market ended October at 100.56(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 100.46(Month Low) to 103.39(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SFH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFH should penetrate 100.46(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 97.05(Average Objective).
February Crude Oil(NYM): The CLG9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 72.70(Prev Close), the market ended October at 65.58(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 65.09(Month Low) to 76.40(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CLG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLG should penetrate 65.09(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 57.05(Average Objective).
March Crude Oil(NYM): The CLH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 72.51(Prev Close), the market ended October at 65.73(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 65.26(Month Low) to 76.29(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CLH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLH should penetrate 65.26(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 57.58(Average Objective).
April Crude Oil(NYM): The CLJ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 72.31(Prev Close), the market ended October at 65.88(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 65.50(Month Low) to 76.01(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CLJ went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLJ should penetrate 65.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 58.19(Average Objective).
March Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCOH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 81.53(Prev Close), the market ended October at 75.09(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 74.64(Month Low) to 85.58(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed lower in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, ITCOH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOH should penetrate 74.64(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 63.79(Average Objective).
April Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCOJ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 81.24(Prev Close), the market ended October at 75.08(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 74.63(Month Low) to 85.27(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed lower in October than September in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, ITCOJ went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOJ should penetrate 74.63(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 64.03(Average Objective).
February NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOG9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 235.27(Prev Close), the market ended October at 224.28(Month Close), that being 6%(Pct Range) off of 222.85(Month Low) to 245.43(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, HOG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOG should penetrate 222.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 192.38(Average Objective).
March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 234.50(Prev Close), the market ended October at 223.42(Month Close), that being 6%(Pct Range) off of 222.13(Month Low) to 244.76(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HOH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should penetrate 222.13(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 191.04(Average Objective).
April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOJ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 233.34(Prev Close), the market ended October at 222.25(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 221.07(Month Low) to 243.33(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HOJ went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should penetrate 221.07(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 192.04(Average Objective).
February Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBG9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 81.83(Prev Close), the market ended October at 75.06(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 74.61(Month Low) to 85.89(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed lower in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CBG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBG should penetrate 74.61(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 63.91(Average Objective).
March Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 81.53(Prev Close), the market ended October at 75.09(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 74.64(Month Low) to 85.58(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed lower in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CBH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBH should penetrate 74.64(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 63.79(Average Objective).
April Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBJ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 81.24(Prev Close), the market ended October at 75.08(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 74.63(Month Low) to 85.27(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed lower in October than September in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CBJ went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBJ should penetrate 74.63(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 64.03(Average Objective).
May Wheat(CBOT): The WK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 538.25(Prev Close), the market ended October at 527.50(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 519.75(Month Low) to 557.50(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in October than September in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, WK went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WK should penetrate 519.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 478.97(Average Objective).
March Cocoa(ICE): The CCH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2082(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2253(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 2008(Month Low) to 2284(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in October than September in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CCH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should exceed 2284(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 2470(Average Objective).
May Cocoa(ICE): The CCK9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2099(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2263(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 2023(Month Low) to 2288(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CCK went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCK should exceed 2288(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 2470(Average Objective).

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