MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Sep 30, 2018

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Sep

25965.00

26769.00

25754.00

26458.00

69%

88%

26769.00

28255.66

26458.00

#TRAN

Higher

Sep

11304.00

11624.00

11253.00

11379.00

34%

100%

11624.00

12640.97

11379.00

#OEX

Higher

Sep

631.54

648.91

612.26

638.91

73%

93%

648.91

711.94

638.91

#VLE

Higher

Sep

50.90

6547.00

0.60

6529.20

100%

89%

6547.00

6887.49

6529.20

#SSNI

Higher

Sep

22865

24286

22173

24120

92%

95%

24286

25524

24120

#SP

Higher

Sep

2901.50

2940.90

2864.10

2914.00

65%

90%

2940.90

3127.10

2914.00

SPZ8

Higher

Sep

2906.50

2946.10

2871.70

2919.00

64%

94%

2946.10

3102.06

2919.00

SFZ8

Lower

Sep

104.11

105.59

102.53

102.84

10%

87%

102.53

98.85

102.84

EUZ8

Lower

Sep

116.92

118.93

116.13

116.82

25%

100%

116.13

112.15

116.82

JYZ8

Lower

Sep

90.77

91.24

88.42

88.54

95%

88.42

85.17

88.54

ADZ8

Higher

Sep

71.82

73.19

70.88

72.27

60%

88%

73.19

76.12

72.27

DXZ8

Higher

Sep

94.672

95.280

93.395

94.737

71%

100%

95.280

98.375

94.737

PLF9

Higher

Sep

790.4

841.8

768.7

822.4

73%

85%

841.8

903.4

822.4

PAZ8

Higher

Sep

969.90

1085.00

942.10

1072.80

91%

86%

1085.00

1218.59

1072.80

CLH9

Higher

Sep

68.16

73.00

65.84

72.51

93%

89%

73.00

78.01

72.51

RBF9

Higher

Sep

196.05

209.29

189.92

207.41

90%

94%

209.29

223.11

207.41

RBH9

Higher

Sep

198.40

211.32

192.46

209.61

91%

94%

211.32

224.42

209.61

NGF9

Higher

Sep

3.114

3.266

2.930

3.169

71%

86%

3.266

3.651

3.169

NGG9

Higher

Sep

3.078

3.161

2.904

3.085

70%

85%

3.161

3.537

3.085

NGH9

Lower

Sep

2.970

2.968

2.810

2.923

72%

93%

2.810

2.481

2.923

BOF9

Higher

Sep

28.99

29.70

27.37

29.23

80%

84%

29.70

32.49

29.23

CZ8

Lower

Sep

365.00

369.75

342.50

356.25

50%

85%

342.50

318.15

356.25

CH9

Lower

Sep

377.25

381.25

354.75

368.00

50%

86%

354.75

330.17

368.00

OH9

Higher

Sep

257.00

267.00

242.00

265.50

94%

86%

267.00

296.70

265.50

RRF9

Lower

Sep

10.98

11.07

9.88

9.98

88%

9.88

9.06

9.98

LCZ8

Higher

Sep

112.980

119.085

112.500

118.850

96%

92%

119.085

124.691

118.850

LCG9

Higher

Sep

116.885

123.000

116.400

122.800

97%

92%

123.000

128.311

122.800

FCF9

Higher

Sep

145.800

155.985

144.530

154.650

88%

91%

155.985

162.674

154.650

HEZ8

Higher

Sep

53.400

58.650

53.430

57.930

86%

58.650

63.536

57.930

HEG9

Higher

Sep

62.880

66.470

62.500

65.850

84%

86%

66.470

71.981

65.850

KCZ8

Higher

Sep

101.80

104.15

95.10

102.45

81%

88%

104.15

117.80

102.45

KCH9

Higher

Sep

105.10

107.45

98.55

105.85

82%

88%

107.45

121.67

105.85

CCZ8

Lower

Sep

2336

2372

2053

2057

95%

2053

1875

2057

CCH9

Lower

Sep

2342

2378

2079

2082

86%

2079

1889

2082

CTH9

Lower

Sep

82.58

84.22

77.22

77.29

86%

77.22

72.12

77.29

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 25965.00(Prev Close), the market ended September at 26458.00(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 25754.00(Month Low) to 26769.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in September than August in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #DJ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 26769.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 28255.66(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 11304.00(Prev Close), the market ended September at 11379.00(Month Close), that being 34%(Pct Range) off of 11253.00(Month Low) to 11624.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in September than August in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #TRAN went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 11624.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 12640.97(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 631.54(Prev Close), the market ended September at 638.91(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 612.26(Month Low) to 648.91(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in September than August in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #OEX went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 648.91(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 711.94(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 50.90(Prev Close), the market ended September at 6529.20(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 0.60(Month Low) to 6547.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in September than August in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #VLE went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 6547.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 6887.49(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 22865(Prev Close), the market ended September at 24120(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 22173(Month Low) to 24286(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in September than August in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #SSNI went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 24286(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 25524(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 2901.50(Prev Close), the market ended September at 2914.00(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 2864.10(Month Low) to 2940.90(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in September than August in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #SP went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2940.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 3127.10(Average Objective).
December S & P 500(CME): The SPZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 2906.50(Prev Close), the market ended September at 2919.00(Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 2871.70(Month Low) to 2946.10(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, SPZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPZ should exceed 2946.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 3102.06(Average Objective).
December Swiss Franc(CME): The SFZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 104.11(Prev Close), the market ended September at 102.84(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 102.53(Month Low) to 105.59(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, SFZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFZ should penetrate 102.53(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 98.85(Average Objective).
December EuroFX(CME): The EUZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 116.92(Prev Close), the market ended September at 116.82(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 116.13(Month Low) to 118.93(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December EuroFX(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, EUZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUZ should penetrate 116.13(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 112.15(Average Objective).
December Japanese Yen(CME): The JYZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 90.77(Prev Close), the market ended September at 88.54(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 88.42(Month Low) to 91.24(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, JYZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYZ should penetrate 88.42(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 85.17(Average Objective).
December Australian Dollar(CME): The ADZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 71.82(Prev Close), the market ended September at 72.27(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 70.88(Month Low) to 73.19(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, ADZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADZ should exceed 73.19(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 76.12(Average Objective).
December US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 94.672(Prev Close), the market ended September at 94.737(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 93.395(Month Low) to 95.280(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in September than August in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, DXZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should exceed 95.280(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 98.375(Average Objective).
January Platinum(NYMEX): The PLF9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 790.4(Prev Close), the market ended September at 822.4(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 768.7(Month Low) to 841.8(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Platinum(NYMEX) also closed higher in September than August in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, PLF went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLF should exceed 841.8(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 903.4(Average Objective).
December Palladium(NYMEX): The PAZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 969.90(Prev Close), the market ended September at 1072.80(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 942.10(Month Low) to 1085.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in September than August in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, PAZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAZ should exceed 1085.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1218.59(Average Objective).
March Crude Oil(NYM): The CLH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 68.16(Prev Close), the market ended September at 72.51(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 65.84(Month Low) to 73.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in September than August in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CLH went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLH should exceed 73.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 78.01(Average Objective).
January RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBF9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 196.05(Prev Close), the market ended September at 207.41(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 189.92(Month Low) to 209.29(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in September than August in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, RBF went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBF should exceed 209.29(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 223.11(Average Objective).
March RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 198.40(Prev Close), the market ended September at 209.61(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 192.46(Month Low) to 211.32(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in September than August in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RBH went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBH should exceed 211.32(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 224.42(Average Objective).
January Natural Gas(NYM): The NGF9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 3.114(Prev Close), the market ended September at 3.169(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 2.930(Month Low) to 3.266(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in September than August in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NGF went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should exceed 3.266(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 3.651(Average Objective).
February Natural Gas(NYM): The NGG9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 3.078(Prev Close), the market ended September at 3.085(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 2.904(Month Low) to 3.161(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in September than August in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGG went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGG should exceed 3.161(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 3.537(Average Objective).
March Natural Gas(NYM): The NGH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 2.970(Prev Close), the market ended September at 2.923(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 2.810(Month Low) to 2.968(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in September than August in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NGH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGH should penetrate 2.810(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2.481(Average Objective).
January Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOF9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 28.99(Prev Close), the market ended September at 29.23(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 27.37(Month Low) to 29.70(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in September than August in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, BOF went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOF should exceed 29.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 32.49(Average Objective).
December Corn(CBOT): The CZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 365.00(Prev Close), the market ended September at 356.25(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 342.50(Month Low) to 369.75(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, CZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 342.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 318.15(Average Objective).
March Corn(CBOT): The CH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 377.25(Prev Close), the market ended September at 368.00(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 354.75(Month Low) to 381.25(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, CH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CH should penetrate 354.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 330.17(Average Objective).
March Oats(CBOT): The OH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 257.00(Prev Close), the market ended September at 265.50(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 242.00(Month Low) to 267.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Oats(CBOT) also closed higher in September than August in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, OH went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OH should exceed 267.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 296.70(Average Objective).
January Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRF9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 10.98(Prev Close), the market ended September at 9.98(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 9.88(Month Low) to 11.07(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RRF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRF should penetrate 9.88(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 9.06(Average Objective).
December Live Cattle(CME): The LCZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 112.980(Prev Close), the market ended September at 118.850(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 112.500(Month Low) to 119.085(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, LCZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should exceed 119.085(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 124.691(Average Objective).
February Live Cattle(CME): The LCG9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 116.885(Prev Close), the market ended September at 122.800(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 116.400(Month Low) to 123.000(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, LCG went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCG should exceed 123.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 128.311(Average Objective).
January Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCF9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 145.800(Prev Close), the market ended September at 154.650(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 144.530(Month Low) to 155.985(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, FCF went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCF should exceed 155.985(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 162.674(Average Objective).
December Lean Hogs(CME): The HEZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 53.400(Prev Close), the market ended September at 57.930(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 53.430(Month Low) to 58.650(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, HEZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEZ should exceed 58.650(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 63.536(Average Objective).
February Lean Hogs(CME): The HEG9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 62.880(Prev Close), the market ended September at 65.850(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 62.500(Month Low) to 66.470(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, HEG went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEG should exceed 66.470(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 71.981(Average Objective).
December Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 101.80(Prev Close), the market ended September at 102.45(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 95.10(Month Low) to 104.15(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed higher in September than August in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, KCZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCZ should exceed 104.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 117.80(Average Objective).
March Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 105.10(Prev Close), the market ended September at 105.85(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 98.55(Month Low) to 107.45(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed higher in September than August in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, KCH went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should exceed 107.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 121.67(Average Objective).
December Cocoa(ICE): The CCZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 2336(Prev Close), the market ended September at 2057(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 2053(Month Low) to 2372(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in September than August in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CCZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should penetrate 2053(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1875(Average Objective).
March Cocoa(ICE): The CCH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 2342(Prev Close), the market ended September at 2082(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 2079(Month Low) to 2378(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in September than August in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CCH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should penetrate 2079(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1889(Average Objective).
March Cotton(ICE): The CTH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 82.58(Prev Close), the market ended September at 77.29(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 77.22(Month Low) to 84.22(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in September than August in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, CTH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTH should penetrate 77.22(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 72.12(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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