MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Feb 28, 2018

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#NDX

Lower

Feb

396.40

6453.40

27.80

300.80

86%

27.80

7.09

300.80

USM8

Lower

Feb

146~250

146~310

141~140

143~140

36%

89%

141~140

136~270

143~140

TYM8

Lower

Feb

121~030

122~020

119~140

120~015

23%

88%

119~140

116~257

120~015

EDM8

Lower

Feb

97.900

97.980

97.700

97.725

89%

97.700

97.335

97.725

EDU8

Lower

Feb

97.755

97.880

97.580

97.605

88%

97.580

97.133

97.605

SFM8

Lower

Feb

108.57

109.91

106.68

106.94

95%

106.68

103.00

106.94

EUM8

Lower

Feb

125.27

126.59

122.88

123.02

89%

122.88

118.34

123.02

DXM8

Higher

Feb

88.635

90.250

87.830

90.155

96%

93%

90.250

92.778

90.155

GCJ8

Lower

Feb

1343.1

1364.4

1309.0

1317.9

16%

90%

1309.0

1233.2

1317.9

SN8

Higher

Feb

1016.25

1068.00

988.75

1064.25

95%

84%

1068.00

1169.91

1064.25

SQ8

Higher

Feb

1018.00

1066.75

991.50

1063.25

95%

84%

1066.75

1165.32

1063.25

SX8

Higher

Feb

1011.25

1036.25

989.00

1032.25

92%

84%

1036.25

1101.33

1032.25

RRN8

Lower

Feb

12.90

13.02

12.27

12.64

50%

84%

12.27

11.20

12.64

RRU8

Lower

Feb

11.97

12.00

11.59

11.75

40%

88%

11.59

10.79

11.75

LCM8

Higher

Feb

115.085

118.900

114.430

115.600

26%

85%

118.900

125.968

115.600

LCQ8

Higher

Feb

112.300

115.700

111.635

112.980

33%

87%

115.700

121.833

112.980

FCK8

Higher

Feb

145.930

153.550

146.150

148.550

32%

85%

153.550

163.270

148.550

HEK8

Lower

Feb

77.830

79.900

74.500

74.880

100%

74.500

66.362

74.880

KCN8

Lower

Feb

126.55

128.70

120.75

124.10

42%

84%

120.75

110.00

124.10

KCU8

Lower

Feb

128.95

131.05

123.00

126.20

40%

84%

123.00

112.22

126.20

LBN8

Higher

Feb

459.7

512.6

459.4

489.2

56%

86%

512.6

555.2

489.2

CTN8

Higher

Feb

79.05

83.36

77.46

83.29

99%

89%

83.36

89.54

83.29

CTZ8

Higher

Feb

74.51

77.50

74.25

77.11

88%

77.50

81.56

77.11

NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 396.40(Prev Close), the market ended February at 300.80(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 27.80(Month Low) to 6453.40(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed lower in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #NDX went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should penetrate 27.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 7.09(Average Objective).
June 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USM8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 146~250(Prev Close), the market ended February at 143~140(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 141~140(Month Low) to 146~310(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, USM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USM should penetrate 141~140(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 136~270(Average Objective).
June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYM8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 121~030(Prev Close), the market ended February at 120~015(Month Close), that being 23%(Pct Range) off of 119~140(Month Low) to 122~020(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, TYM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYM should penetrate 119~140(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 116~257(Average Objective).
June Eurodollars(CME): The EDM8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 97.900(Prev Close), the market ended February at 97.725(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 97.700(Month Low) to 97.980(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, EDM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should penetrate 97.700(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 97.335(Average Objective).
September Eurodollars(CME): The EDU8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 97.755(Prev Close), the market ended February at 97.605(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 97.580(Month Low) to 97.880(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, EDU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should penetrate 97.580(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 97.133(Average Objective).
June Swiss Franc(CME): The SFM8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 108.57(Prev Close), the market ended February at 106.94(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 106.68(Month Low) to 109.91(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SFM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFM should penetrate 106.68(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 103.00(Average Objective).
June EuroFX(CME): The EUM8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 125.27(Prev Close), the market ended February at 123.02(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 122.88(Month Low) to 126.59(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June EuroFX(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, EUM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUM should penetrate 122.88(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 118.34(Average Objective).
June US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXM8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 88.635(Prev Close), the market ended February at 90.155(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 87.830(Month Low) to 90.250(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, DXM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXM should exceed 90.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 92.778(Average Objective).
April Gold(CMX): The GCJ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1343.1(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1317.9(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 1309.0(Month Low) to 1364.4(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Gold(CMX) also closed lower in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, GCJ went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCJ should penetrate 1309.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1233.2(Average Objective).
July Soybeans(CBOT): The SN8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1016.25(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1064.25(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 988.75(Month Low) to 1068.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SN should exceed 1068.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1169.91(Average Objective).
August Soybeans(CBOT): The SQ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1018.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1063.25(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 991.50(Month Low) to 1066.75(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SQ should exceed 1066.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1165.32(Average Objective).
November Soybeans(CBOT): The SX8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1011.25(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1032.25(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 989.00(Month Low) to 1036.25(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SX went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should exceed 1036.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1101.33(Average Objective).
July Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRN8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 12.90(Prev Close), the market ended February at 12.64(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 12.27(Month Low) to 13.02(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, RRN went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRN should penetrate 12.27(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 11.20(Average Objective).
September Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRU8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 11.97(Prev Close), the market ended February at 11.75(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 11.59(Month Low) to 12.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RRU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should penetrate 11.59(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 10.79(Average Objective).
June Live Cattle(CME): The LCM8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 115.085(Prev Close), the market ended February at 115.600(Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 114.430(Month Low) to 118.900(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, LCM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCM should exceed 118.900(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 125.968(Average Objective).
August Live Cattle(CME): The LCQ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 112.300(Prev Close), the market ended February at 112.980(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 111.635(Month Low) to 115.700(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, LCQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should exceed 115.700(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 121.833(Average Objective).
May Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCK8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 145.930(Prev Close), the market ended February at 148.550(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 146.150(Month Low) to 153.550(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, FCK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCK should exceed 153.550(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 163.270(Average Objective).
May Lean Hogs(CME): The HEK8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 77.830(Prev Close), the market ended February at 74.880(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 74.500(Month Low) to 79.900(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, HEK went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEK should penetrate 74.500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 66.362(Average Objective).
July Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCN8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 126.55(Prev Close), the market ended February at 124.10(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 120.75(Month Low) to 128.70(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, KCN went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCN should penetrate 120.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 110.00(Average Objective).
September Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCU8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 128.95(Prev Close), the market ended February at 126.20(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 123.00(Month Low) to 131.05(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, KCU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCU should penetrate 123.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 112.22(Average Objective).
July Lumber(CME): The LBN8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 459.7(Prev Close), the market ended February at 489.2(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 459.4(Month Low) to 512.6(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lumber(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, LBN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBN should exceed 512.6(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 555.2(Average Objective).
July Cotton(ICE): The CTN8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 79.05(Prev Close), the market ended February at 83.29(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 77.46(Month Low) to 83.36(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, CTN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTN should exceed 83.36(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 89.54(Average Objective).
December Cotton(ICE): The CTZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 74.51(Prev Close), the market ended February at 77.11(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 74.25(Month Low) to 77.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, CTZ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should exceed 77.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 81.56(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

Login

Main Menu

MRCI Online

Free Links

Newsflash