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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Feb 28, 2018
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#NDX Lower Feb 396.40 6453.40 27.80 300.80 4% 32 14 12 86% 27.80 7.09 300.80
USM8 Lower Feb 146~250 146~310 141~140 143~140 36% 40 19 17 89% 141~140 136~270 143~140
TYM8 Lower Feb 121~030 122~020 119~140 120~015 23% 35 16 14 88% 119~140 116~257 120~015
EDM8 Lower Feb 97.900 97.980 97.700 97.725 9% 35 19 17 89% 97.700 97.335 97.725
EDU8 Lower Feb 97.755 97.880 97.580 97.605 8% 35 17 15 88% 97.580 97.133 97.605
SFM8 Lower Feb 108.57 109.91 106.68 106.94 8% 42 21 20 95% 106.68 103.00 106.94
EUM8 Lower Feb 125.27 126.59 122.88 123.02 4% 19 9 8 89% 122.88 118.34 123.02
DXM8 Higher Feb 88.635 90.250 87.830 90.155 96% 32 14 13 93% 90.250 92.778 90.155
GCJ8 Lower Feb 1343.1 1364.4 1309.0 1317.9 16% 43 21 19 90% 1309.0 1233.2 1317.9
SN8 Higher Feb 1016.25 1068.00 988.75 1064.25 95% 45 25 21 84% 1068.00 1169.91 1064.25
SQ8 Higher Feb 1018.00 1066.75 991.50 1063.25 95% 45 25 21 84% 1066.75 1165.32 1063.25
SX8 Higher Feb 1011.25 1036.25 989.00 1032.25 92% 45 25 21 84% 1036.25 1101.33 1032.25
RRN8 Lower Feb 12.90 13.02 12.27 12.64 50% 28 19 16 84% 12.27 11.20 12.64
RRU8 Lower Feb 11.97 12.00 11.59 11.75 40% 31 16 14 88% 11.59 10.79 11.75
LCM8 Higher Feb 115.085 118.900 114.430 115.600 26% 45 27 23 85% 118.900 125.968 115.600
LCQ8 Higher Feb 112.300 115.700 111.635 112.980 33% 44 23 20 87% 115.700 121.833 112.980
FCK8 Higher Feb 145.930 153.550 146.150 148.550 32% 45 27 23 85% 153.550 163.270 148.550
HEK8 Lower Feb 77.830 79.900 74.500 74.880 7% 16 8 8 100% 74.500 66.362 74.880
KCN8 Lower Feb 126.55 128.70 120.75 124.10 42% 44 25 21 84% 120.75 110.00 124.10
KCU8 Lower Feb 128.95 131.05 123.00 126.20 40% 44 25 21 84% 123.00 112.22 126.20
LBN8 Higher Feb 459.7 512.6 459.4 489.2 56% 44 21 18 86% 512.6 555.2 489.2
CTN8 Higher Feb 79.05 83.36 77.46 83.29 99% 45 27 24 89% 83.36 89.54 83.29
CTZ8 Higher Feb 74.51 77.50 74.25 77.11 88% 45 26 23 88% 77.50 81.56 77.11


NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 396.40(Prev Close), the market ended February at 300.80(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 27.80(Month Low) to 6453.40(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed lower in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #NDX went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should penetrate 27.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 7.09(Average Objective).

June 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USM8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 146~250(Prev Close), the market ended February at 143~140(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 141~140(Month Low) to 146~310(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, USM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USM should penetrate 141~140(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 136~270(Average Objective).

June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYM8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 121~030(Prev Close), the market ended February at 120~015(Month Close), that being 23%(Pct Range) off of 119~140(Month Low) to 122~020(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, TYM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYM should penetrate 119~140(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 116~257(Average Objective).

June Eurodollars(CME)
The EDM8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 97.900(Prev Close), the market ended February at 97.725(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 97.700(Month Low) to 97.980(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, EDM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should penetrate 97.700(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 97.335(Average Objective).

September Eurodollars(CME)
The EDU8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 97.755(Prev Close), the market ended February at 97.605(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 97.580(Month Low) to 97.880(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, EDU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should penetrate 97.580(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 97.133(Average Objective).

June Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFM8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 108.57(Prev Close), the market ended February at 106.94(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 106.68(Month Low) to 109.91(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SFM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFM should penetrate 106.68(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 103.00(Average Objective).

June EuroFX(CME)
The EUM8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 125.27(Prev Close), the market ended February at 123.02(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 122.88(Month Low) to 126.59(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June EuroFX(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, EUM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUM should penetrate 122.88(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 118.34(Average Objective).

June US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXM8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 88.635(Prev Close), the market ended February at 90.155(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 87.830(Month Low) to 90.250(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, DXM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXM should exceed 90.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 92.778(Average Objective).

April Gold(CMX)
The GCJ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1343.1(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1317.9(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 1309.0(Month Low) to 1364.4(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Gold(CMX) also closed lower in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, GCJ went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCJ should penetrate 1309.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1233.2(Average Objective).

July Soybeans(CBOT)
The SN8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1016.25(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1064.25(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 988.75(Month Low) to 1068.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SN should exceed 1068.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1169.91(Average Objective).

August Soybeans(CBOT)
The SQ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1018.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1063.25(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 991.50(Month Low) to 1066.75(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SQ should exceed 1066.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1165.32(Average Objective).

November Soybeans(CBOT)
The SX8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1011.25(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1032.25(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 989.00(Month Low) to 1036.25(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SX went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should exceed 1036.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1101.33(Average Objective).

July Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRN8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 12.90(Prev Close), the market ended February at 12.64(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 12.27(Month Low) to 13.02(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, RRN went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRN should penetrate 12.27(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 11.20(Average Objective).

September Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRU8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 11.97(Prev Close), the market ended February at 11.75(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 11.59(Month Low) to 12.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RRU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should penetrate 11.59(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 10.79(Average Objective).

June Live Cattle(CME)
The LCM8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 115.085(Prev Close), the market ended February at 115.600(Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 114.430(Month Low) to 118.900(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, LCM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCM should exceed 118.900(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 125.968(Average Objective).

August Live Cattle(CME)
The LCQ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 112.300(Prev Close), the market ended February at 112.980(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 111.635(Month Low) to 115.700(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, LCQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should exceed 115.700(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 121.833(Average Objective).

May Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCK8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 145.930(Prev Close), the market ended February at 148.550(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 146.150(Month Low) to 153.550(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, FCK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCK should exceed 153.550(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 163.270(Average Objective).

May Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEK8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 77.830(Prev Close), the market ended February at 74.880(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 74.500(Month Low) to 79.900(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, HEK went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEK should penetrate 74.500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 66.362(Average Objective).

July Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCN8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 126.55(Prev Close), the market ended February at 124.10(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 120.75(Month Low) to 128.70(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, KCN went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCN should penetrate 120.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 110.00(Average Objective).

September Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCU8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 128.95(Prev Close), the market ended February at 126.20(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 123.00(Month Low) to 131.05(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, KCU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCU should penetrate 123.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 112.22(Average Objective).

July Lumber(CME)
The LBN8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 459.7(Prev Close), the market ended February at 489.2(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 459.4(Month Low) to 512.6(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lumber(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, LBN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBN should exceed 512.6(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 555.2(Average Objective).

July Cotton(ICE)
The CTN8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 79.05(Prev Close), the market ended February at 83.29(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 77.46(Month Low) to 83.36(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, CTN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTN should exceed 83.36(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 89.54(Average Objective).

December Cotton(ICE)
The CTZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 74.51(Prev Close), the market ended February at 77.11(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 74.25(Month Low) to 77.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, CTZ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should exceed 77.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 81.56(Average Objective).
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