MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Dec 31, 2017

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Dec

24272.00

24876.00

23922.00

24719.00

84%

90%

24876.00

26280.42

24719.00

#TRAN

Higher

Dec

10275.00

10740.00

10012.00

10612.00

82%

94%

10740.00

11657.91

10612.00

#OEX

Higher

Dec

1167.80

1195.25

1151.15

1183.15

73%

89%

1195.25

1262.97

1183.15

#NDX

Higher

Dec

6365.60

6522.70

6236.10

6396.40

56%

93%

6522.70

7059.62

6396.40

#MID

Higher

Dec

1899.20

1916.70

1856.05

1900.55

73%

96%

1916.70

2019.88

1900.55

#VLE

Higher

Dec

6040.00

6138.10

5914.50

6092.50

80%

97%

6138.10

6536.45

6092.50

#SSNI

Higher

Dec

22725

22994

22119

22765

74%

88%

22994

24416

22765

#SP

Higher

Dec

2647.60

2694.95

2605.65

2673.60

76%

94%

2694.95

2828.98

2673.60

SPH8

Higher

Dec

2650.00

2698.20

2617.10

2676.00

73%

100%

2698.20

2834.77

2676.00

USH8

Higher

Dec

151~230

154~180

150~140

153~000

62%

90%

154~180

159~312

153~000

JYH8

Lower

Dec

89.38

90.23

88.41

89.14

40%

90%

88.41

85.31

89.14

BPH8

Lower

Dec

135.73

135.98

133.53

135.57

83%

89%

133.53

127.71

135.57

CDH8

Higher

Dec

77.61

79.99

77.53

79.90

96%

86%

79.99

81.48

79.90

GCJ8

Higher

Dec

1281.1

1314.6

1242.7

1314.0

99%

84%

1314.6

1434.4

1314.0

SIH8

Higher

Dec

1647.4

1717.5

1563.5

1714.5

98%

90%

1717.5

2029.2

1714.5

PAH8

Higher

Dec

1003.55

1064.50

973.60

1061.00

96%

87%

1064.50

1291.96

1061.00

HGH8

Higher

Dec

306.40

332.20

294.30

330.05

94%

92%

332.20

361.64

330.05

CLJ8

Higher

Dec

57.28

60.50

55.96

60.40

98%

100%

60.50

66.21

60.40

CLK8

Higher

Dec

57.09

60.38

55.90

60.27

98%

100%

60.38

65.85

60.27

CLM8

Higher

Dec

56.82

60.20

55.71

60.06

97%

100%

60.20

65.44

60.06

ITCOK8

Higher

Dec

61.84

66.23

60.68

66.09

97%

92%

66.23

73.35

66.09

ITCOM8

Higher

Dec

61.63

65.95

60.58

65.78

97%

92%

65.95

72.33

65.78

ITCON8

Higher

Dec

61.40

65.67

60.42

65.48

96%

91%

65.67

71.90

65.48

HOJ8

Higher

Dec

187.90

202.37

184.21

201.36

94%

95%

202.37

218.70

201.36

HOK8

Higher

Dec

186.84

200.25

183.18

199.31

94%

88%

200.25

217.34

199.31

RBJ8

Higher

Dec

192.39

199.93

186.65

199.19

94%

100%

199.93

219.53

199.19

RBK8

Higher

Dec

192.42

200.45

187.32

199.81

95%

100%

200.45

220.85

199.81

RBM8

Higher

Dec

190.79

199.78

186.51

199.19

96%

100%

199.78

218.06

199.19

NGJ8

Lower

Dec

2.867

2.911

2.487

2.749

62%

88%

2.487

2.098

2.749

NGK8

Lower

Dec

2.861

2.899

2.504

2.741

60%

88%

2.504

2.160

2.741

NGM8

Lower

Dec

2.892

2.927

2.550

2.773

59%

93%

2.550

2.284

2.773

CBJ8

Higher

Dec

62.07

66.54

60.78

66.44

98%

93%

66.54

73.73

66.44

CBK8

Higher

Dec

61.84

66.23

60.68

66.09

97%

92%

66.23

73.35

66.09

CBM8

Higher

Dec

61.63

65.95

60.58

65.78

97%

92%

65.95

72.33

65.78

SH8

Lower

Dec

997.75

1027.00

954.75

961.75

10%

85%

954.75

903.88

961.75

SK8

Lower

Dec

1008.50

1037.25

966.00

973.00

10%

88%

966.00

915.18

973.00

BOH8

Lower

Dec

34.06

34.27

32.52

33.26

42%

87%

32.52

30.56

33.26

BOK8

Lower

Dec

34.26

34.46

32.71

33.43

41%

88%

32.71

30.73

33.43

HEK8

Higher

Dec

79.200

80.750

76.330

80.000

83%

100%

80.750

84.194

80.000

HEM8

Higher

Dec

82.880

84.700

81.000

83.930

79%

95%

84.700

90.967

83.930

JOH8

Lower

Dec

160.20

164.45

132.05

136.85

15%

88%

132.05

118.07

136.85

JOK8

Lower

Dec

160.20

164.00

133.45

137.80

14%

88%

133.45

118.95

137.80

KCK8

Lower

Dec

130.65

132.45

120.55

128.55

67%

85%

120.55

110.07

128.55

CCH8

Lower

Dec

2049

1804

1892

36%

86%

1804

1662

1892

LBH8

Higher

Dec

417.4

445.7

408.5

441.9

90%

85%

445.7

491.9

441.9

LBK8

Higher

Dec

403.6

437.0

396.4

434.0

93%

89%

437.0

475.2

434.0

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 24272.00(Prev Close), the market ended December at 24719.00(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 23922.00(Month Low) to 24876.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in December than November in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, the #DJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 24876.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 26280.42(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 10275.00(Prev Close), the market ended December at 10612.00(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 10012.00(Month Low) to 10740.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in December than November in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, the #TRAN went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 29 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 10740.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 29 years) a potential move toward 11657.91(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1167.80(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1183.15(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 1151.15(Month Low) to 1195.25(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in December than November in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #OEX went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 1195.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 1262.97(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 6365.60(Prev Close), the market ended December at 6396.40(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 6236.10(Month Low) to 6522.70(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in December than November in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #NDX went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 6522.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 7059.62(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1899.20(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1900.55(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 1856.05(Month Low) to 1916.70(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in December than November in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #MID went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1916.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 2019.88(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 6040.00(Prev Close), the market ended December at 6092.50(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 5914.50(Month Low) to 6138.10(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in December than November in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, the #VLE went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 97%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 6138.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 6536.45(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 22725(Prev Close), the market ended December at 22765(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 22119(Month Low) to 22994(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in December than November in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #SSNI went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 22994(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 24416(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2647.60(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2673.60(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 2605.65(Month Low) to 2694.95(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in December than November in 33(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 33, the #SP went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 31 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2694.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 31 years) a potential move toward 2828.98(Average Objective).
March S & P 500(CME): The SPH8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2650.00(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2676.00(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 2617.10(Month Low) to 2698.20(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SPH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPH should exceed 2698.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 2834.77(Average Objective).
March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USH8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 151~230(Prev Close), the market ended December at 153~000(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 150~140(Month Low) to 154~180(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in December than November in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, USH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USH should exceed 154~180(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 159~312(Average Objective).
March Japanese Yen(CME): The JYH8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 89.38(Prev Close), the market ended December at 89.14(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 88.41(Month Low) to 90.23(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in December than November in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, JYH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 88.41(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 85.31(Average Objective).
March British Pound(CME): The BPH8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 135.73(Prev Close), the market ended December at 135.57(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 133.53(Month Low) to 135.98(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March British Pound(CME) also closed lower in December than November in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, BPH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BPH should penetrate 133.53(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 127.71(Average Objective).
March Canadian Dollar(CME): The CDH8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 77.61(Prev Close), the market ended December at 79.90(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 77.53(Month Low) to 79.99(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CDH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDH should exceed 79.99(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 81.48(Average Objective).
April Gold(CMX): The GCJ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1281.1(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1314.0(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 1242.7(Month Low) to 1314.6(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Gold(CMX) also closed higher in December than November in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, GCJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCJ should exceed 1314.6(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1434.4(Average Objective).
March Silver(CMX): The SIH8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1647.4(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1714.5(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 1563.5(Month Low) to 1717.5(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Silver(CMX) also closed higher in December than November in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SIH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIH should exceed 1717.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 2029.2(Average Objective).
March Palladium(NYMEX): The PAH8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1003.55(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1061.00(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 973.60(Month Low) to 1064.50(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in December than November in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, PAH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAH should exceed 1064.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1291.96(Average Objective).
March Copper(CMX): The HGH8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 306.40(Prev Close), the market ended December at 330.05(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 294.30(Month Low) to 332.20(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Copper(CMX) also closed higher in December than November in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, HGH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGH should exceed 332.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 361.64(Average Objective).
April Crude Oil(NYM): The CLJ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 57.28(Prev Close), the market ended December at 60.40(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 55.96(Month Low) to 60.50(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CLJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLJ should exceed 60.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 66.21(Average Objective).
May Crude Oil(NYM): The CLK8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 57.09(Prev Close), the market ended December at 60.27(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 55.90(Month Low) to 60.38(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CLK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLK should exceed 60.38(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 65.85(Average Objective).
June Crude Oil(NYM): The CLM8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 56.82(Prev Close), the market ended December at 60.06(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 55.71(Month Low) to 60.20(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CLM went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLM should exceed 60.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 65.44(Average Objective).
May Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCOK8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 61.84(Prev Close), the market ended December at 66.09(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 60.68(Month Low) to 66.23(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in December than November in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, ITCOK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOK should exceed 66.23(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 73.35(Average Objective).
June Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCOM8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 61.63(Prev Close), the market ended December at 65.78(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 60.58(Month Low) to 65.95(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in December than November in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, ITCOM went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOM should exceed 65.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 72.33(Average Objective).
July Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCON8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 61.40(Prev Close), the market ended December at 65.48(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 60.42(Month Low) to 65.67(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in December than November in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, ITCON went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCON should exceed 65.67(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 71.90(Average Objective).
April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOJ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 187.90(Prev Close), the market ended December at 201.36(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 184.21(Month Low) to 202.37(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HOJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should exceed 202.37(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 218.70(Average Objective).
May NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOK8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 186.84(Prev Close), the market ended December at 199.31(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 183.18(Month Low) to 200.25(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, HOK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOK should exceed 200.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 217.34(Average Objective).
April RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBJ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 192.39(Prev Close), the market ended December at 199.19(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 186.65(Month Low) to 199.93(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, RBJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBJ should exceed 199.93(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 219.53(Average Objective).
May RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBK8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 192.42(Prev Close), the market ended December at 199.81(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 187.32(Month Low) to 200.45(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, RBK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBK should exceed 200.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 220.85(Average Objective).
June RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBM8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 190.79(Prev Close), the market ended December at 199.19(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 186.51(Month Low) to 199.78(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, RBM went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBM should exceed 199.78(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 218.06(Average Objective).
April Natural Gas(NYM): The NGJ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2.867(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2.749(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 2.487(Month Low) to 2.911(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in December than November in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NGJ went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGJ should penetrate 2.487(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 2.098(Average Objective).
May Natural Gas(NYM): The NGK8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2.861(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2.741(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 2.504(Month Low) to 2.899(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in December than November in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NGK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGK should penetrate 2.504(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 2.160(Average Objective).
June Natural Gas(NYM): The NGM8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2.892(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2.773(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 2.550(Month Low) to 2.927(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in December than November in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, NGM went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGM should penetrate 2.550(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 2.284(Average Objective).
April Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBJ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 62.07(Prev Close), the market ended December at 66.44(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 60.78(Month Low) to 66.54(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in December than November in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CBJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBJ should exceed 66.54(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 73.73(Average Objective).
May Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBK8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 61.84(Prev Close), the market ended December at 66.09(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 60.68(Month Low) to 66.23(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in December than November in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, CBK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBK should exceed 66.23(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 73.35(Average Objective).
June Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBM8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 61.63(Prev Close), the market ended December at 65.78(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 60.58(Month Low) to 65.95(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in December than November in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, CBM went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBM should exceed 65.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 72.33(Average Objective).
March Soybeans(CBOT): The SH8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 997.75(Prev Close), the market ended December at 961.75(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 954.75(Month Low) to 1027.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SH should penetrate 954.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 903.88(Average Objective).
May Soybeans(CBOT): The SK8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1008.50(Prev Close), the market ended December at 973.00(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 966.00(Month Low) to 1037.25(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SK should penetrate 966.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 915.18(Average Objective).
March Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOH8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 34.06(Prev Close), the market ended December at 33.26(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 32.52(Month Low) to 34.27(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, BOH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOH should penetrate 32.52(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 30.56(Average Objective).
May Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOK8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 34.26(Prev Close), the market ended December at 33.43(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 32.71(Month Low) to 34.46(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, BOK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOK should penetrate 32.71(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 30.73(Average Objective).
May Lean Hogs(CME): The HEK8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 79.200(Prev Close), the market ended December at 80.000(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 76.330(Month Low) to 80.750(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 5(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 5, HEK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 5 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEK should exceed 80.750(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 5 years) a potential move toward 84.194(Average Objective).
June Lean Hogs(CME): The HEM8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 82.880(Prev Close), the market ended December at 83.930(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 81.000(Month Low) to 84.700(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, HEM went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEM should exceed 84.700(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 90.967(Average Objective).
March Orange Juice(ICE): The JOH8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 160.20(Prev Close), the market ended December at 136.85(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 132.05(Month Low) to 164.45(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Orange Juice(ICE) also closed lower in December than November in 32(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 32, JOH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOH should penetrate 132.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 118.07(Average Objective).
May Orange Juice(ICE): The JOK8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 160.20(Prev Close), the market ended December at 137.80(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 133.45(Month Low) to 164.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Orange Juice(ICE) also closed lower in December than November in 32(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 32, JOK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOK should penetrate 133.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 118.95(Average Objective).
May Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCK8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 130.65(Prev Close), the market ended December at 128.55(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 120.55(Month Low) to 132.45(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in December than November in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, KCK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCK should penetrate 120.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 110.07(Average Objective).
March Cocoa(ICE): The CCH8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2049(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1892(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 1804(Month Low) to 2049(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in December than November in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CCH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should penetrate 1804(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1662(Average Objective).
March Lumber(CME): The LBH8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 417.4(Prev Close), the market ended December at 441.9(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 408.5(Month Low) to 445.7(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Lumber(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, LBH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBH should exceed 445.7(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 491.9(Average Objective).
May Lumber(CME): The LBK8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 403.6(Prev Close), the market ended December at 434.0(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 396.4(Month Low) to 437.0(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lumber(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, LBK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBK should exceed 437.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 475.2(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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