MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Apr 30, 2017

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Apr

20663.00

21071.00

20380.00

20941.00

81%

90%

21071.00

21964.80

20941.00

#OEX

Higher

Apr

1046.05

1059.25

1030.40

1054.85

85%

89%

1059.25

1108.19

1054.85

#NDX

Higher

Apr

5436.20

5600.00

5353.60

5583.50

93%

88%

5600.00

6045.24

5583.50

#MID

Higher

Apr

1719.65

1756.40

1680.85

1732.75

69%

87%

1756.40

1860.03

1732.75

#VLE

Higher

Apr

5459.10

5582.00

5340.30

5513.70

72%

90%

5582.00

5905.16

5513.70

#SSNI

Higher

Apr

18909

19289

18225

19197

91%

95%

19289

20323

19197

#SP

Higher

Apr

2362.70

2398.15

2328.95

2384.20

80%

90%

2398.15

2507.19

2384.20

SPU7

Higher

Apr

2356.30

2391.50

2321.40

2378.00

81%

96%

2391.50

2494.00

2378.00

SPZ7

Higher

Apr

2354.20

2389.60

2318.90

2376.20

81%

96%

2389.60

2489.59

2376.20

USU7

Higher

Apr

149~200

154~070

149~130

151~250

49%

94%

154~070

162~154

151~250

TYU7

Higher

Apr

124~015

126~100

124~010

125~125

60%

94%

126~100

130~168

125~125

EDU7

Higher

Apr

98.570

98.665

98.540

98.600

48%

85%

98.665

99.123

98.600

SFU7

Higher

Apr

101.01

101.94

99.96

101.48

77%

84%

101.94

104.87

101.48

JYU7

Lower

Apr

90.49

93.08

90.02

90.32

10%

84%

90.02

86.41

90.32

SPU7

Higher

Apr

2356.30

2391.50

2321.40

2378.00

81%

96%

2391.50

2494.00

2378.00

CDU7

Lower

Apr

75.44

75.77

73.18

73.32

92%

73.18

72.02

73.32

ADU7

Lower

Apr

76.25

76.16

74.24

74.67

22%

100%

74.24

70.56

74.67

NGQ7

Higher

Apr

3.333

3.507

3.240

3.380

52%

94%

3.507

3.943

3.380

NGU7

Higher

Apr

3.318

3.491

3.232

3.364

51%

94%

3.491

3.925

3.364

NGV7

Higher

Apr

3.328

3.503

3.251

3.379

51%

94%

3.503

3.878

3.379

BON7

Lower

Apr

32.07

32.55

31.12

31.71

41%

94%

31.12

28.72

31.71

BOQ7

Lower

Apr

32.17

32.64

31.23

31.81

41%

94%

31.23

28.85

31.81

BOU7

Lower

Apr

32.25

32.72

31.34

31.93

43%

89%

31.34

28.73

31.93

CN7

Lower

Apr

371.75

379.50

360.75

366.50

31%

90%

360.75

328.67

366.50

CU7

Lower

Apr

379.25

386.50

368.25

374.25

33%

93%

368.25

335.83

374.25

CZ7

Lower

Apr

388.25

395.75

379.25

385.00

35%

96%

379.25

347.54

385.00

WN7

Lower

Apr

439.00

449.50

416.00

432.25

49%

84%

416.00

384.17

432.25

RRN7

Lower

Apr

10.15

10.55

9.36

9.42

92%

9.36

8.68

9.42

RRU7

Lower

Apr

10.36

10.73

9.65

9.68

93%

9.65

8.99

9.68

KCU7

Lower

Apr

144.00

148.75

131.10

135.75

26%

86%

131.10

114.84

135.75

SBN7

Lower

Apr

16.88

17.26

15.35

16.13

41%

85%

15.35

13.11

16.13

SBV7

Lower

Apr

17.11

17.44

15.63

16.32

38%

84%

15.63

13.54

16.32

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 20663.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 20941.00(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 20380.00(Month Low) to 21071.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in April than March in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, the #DJ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 21071.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 21964.80(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1046.05(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1054.85(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 1030.40(Month Low) to 1059.25(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in April than March in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #OEX went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 1059.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 1108.19(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 5436.20(Prev Close), the market ended April at 5583.50(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 5353.60(Month Low) to 5600.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #NDX went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 5600.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 6045.24(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1719.65(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1732.75(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 1680.85(Month Low) to 1756.40(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in April than March in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, the #MID went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1756.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1860.03(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 5459.10(Prev Close), the market ended April at 5513.70(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 5340.30(Month Low) to 5582.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #VLE went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 5582.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 5905.16(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 18909(Prev Close), the market ended April at 19197(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 18225(Month Low) to 19289(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #SSNI went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 19289(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 20323(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2362.70(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2384.20(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 2328.95(Month Low) to 2398.15(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in April than March in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, the #SP went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2398.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 2507.19(Average Objective).
September S & P 500(CME): The SPU7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2356.30(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2378.00(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 2321.40(Month Low) to 2391.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SPU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 2391.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 2494.00(Average Objective).
December S & P 500(CME): The SPZ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2354.20(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2376.20(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 2318.90(Month Low) to 2389.60(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SPZ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPZ should exceed 2389.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 2489.59(Average Objective).
September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USU7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 149~200(Prev Close), the market ended April at 151~250(Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 149~130(Month Low) to 154~070(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, USU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should exceed 154~070(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 162~154(Average Objective).
September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYU7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 124~015(Prev Close), the market ended April at 125~125(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 124~010(Month Low) to 126~100(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, TYU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should exceed 126~100(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 130~168(Average Objective).
September Eurodollars(CME): The EDU7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 98.570(Prev Close), the market ended April at 98.600(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 98.540(Month Low) to 98.665(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, EDU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should exceed 98.665(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 99.123(Average Objective).
September Swiss Franc(CME): The SFU7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 101.01(Prev Close), the market ended April at 101.48(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 99.96(Month Low) to 101.94(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SFU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFU should exceed 101.94(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 104.87(Average Objective).
September Japanese Yen(CME): The JYU7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 90.49(Prev Close), the market ended April at 90.32(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 90.02(Month Low) to 93.08(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, JYU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYU should penetrate 90.02(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 86.41(Average Objective).
September S & P 500(CME): The SPU7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2356.30(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2378.00(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 2321.40(Month Low) to 2391.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SPU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 2391.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 2494.00(Average Objective).
September Canadian Dollar(CME): The CDU7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 75.44(Prev Close), the market ended April at 73.32(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 73.18(Month Low) to 75.77(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, CDU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDU should penetrate 73.18(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 72.02(Average Objective).
September Australian Dollar(CME): The ADU7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 76.25(Prev Close), the market ended April at 74.67(Month Close), that being 22%(Pct Range) off of 74.24(Month Low) to 76.16(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Australian Dollar(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, ADU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADU should penetrate 74.24(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 70.56(Average Objective).
August Natural Gas(NYM): The NGQ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 3.333(Prev Close), the market ended April at 3.380(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 3.240(Month Low) to 3.507(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, NGQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 3.507(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 3.943(Average Objective).
September Natural Gas(NYM): The NGU7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 3.318(Prev Close), the market ended April at 3.364(Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 3.232(Month Low) to 3.491(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, NGU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should exceed 3.491(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 3.925(Average Objective).
October Natural Gas(NYM): The NGV7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 3.328(Prev Close), the market ended April at 3.379(Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 3.251(Month Low) to 3.503(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, NGV went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGV should exceed 3.503(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 3.878(Average Objective).
July Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BON7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 32.07(Prev Close), the market ended April at 31.71(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 31.12(Month Low) to 32.55(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, BON went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BON should penetrate 31.12(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 28.72(Average Objective).
August Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOQ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 32.17(Prev Close), the market ended April at 31.81(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 31.23(Month Low) to 32.64(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, BOQ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOQ should penetrate 31.23(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 28.85(Average Objective).
September Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOU7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 32.25(Prev Close), the market ended April at 31.93(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 31.34(Month Low) to 32.72(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, BOU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOU should penetrate 31.34(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 28.73(Average Objective).
July Corn(CBOT): The CN7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 371.75(Prev Close), the market ended April at 366.50(Month Close), that being 31%(Pct Range) off of 360.75(Month Low) to 379.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, CN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should penetrate 360.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 328.67(Average Objective).
September Corn(CBOT): The CU7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 379.25(Prev Close), the market ended April at 374.25(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 368.25(Month Low) to 386.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, CU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should penetrate 368.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 335.83(Average Objective).
December Corn(CBOT): The CZ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 388.25(Prev Close), the market ended April at 385.00(Month Close), that being 35%(Pct Range) off of 379.25(Month Low) to 395.75(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CZ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 379.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 347.54(Average Objective).
July Wheat(CBOT): The WN7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 439.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 432.25(Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 416.00(Month Low) to 449.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, WN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WN should penetrate 416.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 384.17(Average Objective).
July Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRN7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 10.15(Prev Close), the market ended April at 9.42(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 9.36(Month Low) to 10.55(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, RRN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRN should penetrate 9.36(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 8.68(Average Objective).
September Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRU7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 10.36(Prev Close), the market ended April at 9.68(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 9.65(Month Low) to 10.73(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, RRU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should penetrate 9.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 8.99(Average Objective).
September Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCU7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 144.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 135.75(Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 131.10(Month Low) to 148.75(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in April than March in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, KCU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCU should penetrate 131.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 114.84(Average Objective).
July Sugar #11(ICE): The SBN7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 16.88(Prev Close), the market ended April at 16.13(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 15.35(Month Low) to 17.26(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Sugar #11(ICE) also closed lower in April than March in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SBN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBN should penetrate 15.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 13.11(Average Objective).
October Sugar #11(ICE): The SBV7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 17.11(Prev Close), the market ended April at 16.32(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 15.63(Month Low) to 17.44(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed lower in April than March in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SBV went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should penetrate 15.63(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 13.54(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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