MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Jan 31, 2017

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Jan

19763.00

20126.00

19678.00

19864.00

42%

96%

20126.00

21195.46

19864.00

#TRAN

Higher

Jan

9044.00

9503.00

8980.00

9192.00

41%

92%

9503.00

10189.60

9192.00

#RUT

Higher

Jan

1357.15

1388.60

1341.45

1361.80

43%

84%

1388.60

1470.31

1361.80

#MID

Higher

Jan

1660.60

1714.65

1659.05

1687.20

51%

95%

1714.65

1804.98

1687.20

#VLE

Higher

Jan

5262.00

5428.00

5273.50

5349.00

49%

95%

5428.00

5727.94

5349.00

#SP

Higher

Jan

2238.85

2301.00

2245.15

2278.85

60%

92%

2301.00

2426.20

2278.85

SPH7

Higher

Jan

2236.20

2298.30

2239.70

2274.50

59%

90%

2298.30

2403.76

2274.50

SPM7

Higher

Jan

2230.50

2291.00

2244.80

2269.30

53%

90%

2291.00

2416.71

2269.30

CDH7

Higher

Jan

74.41

77.15

74.35

76.83

89%

92%

77.15

78.30

76.83

PLJ7

Higher

Jan

905.7

1008.7

903.6

996.5

88%

93%

1008.7

1105.4

996.5

HGH7

Higher

Jan

250.55

273.75

247.25

272.75

96%

92%

273.75

303.73

272.75

HGK7

Higher

Jan

251.20

274.75

248.00

273.85

97%

96%

274.75

304.23

273.85

NGM7

Lower

Jan

3.560

3.541

3.150

3.259

28%

86%

3.150

2.781

3.259

SK7

Higher

Jan

1012.50

1088.25

1001.25

1034.25

38%

86%

1088.25

1187.07

1034.25

SN7

Higher

Jan

1019.00

1092.50

1008.25

1042.00

40%

86%

1092.50

1191.65

1042.00

CK7

Higher

Jan

357.50

377.75

357.50

367.00

47%

87%

377.75

405.67

367.00

CN7

Higher

Jan

364.25

384.50

364.25

373.75

47%

91%

384.50

413.67

373.75

OK7

Higher

Jan

228.50

254.50

224.75

238.75

47%

88%

254.50

282.73

238.75

RRH7

Lower

Jan

9.61

10.10

9.46

9.54

12%

93%

9.46

8.63

9.54

RRK7

Lower

Jan

9.86

10.32

9.74

9.79

93%

9.74

8.72

9.79

HEK7

Higher

Jan

72.900

75.000

71.500

73.980

71%

90%

75.000

78.299

73.980

SBN7

Higher

Jan

18.85

20.64

18.87

20.20

75%

86%

20.64

23.72

20.20

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 19763.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 19864.00(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 19678.00(Month Low) to 20126.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in January than December in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #DJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 20126.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 21195.46(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 9044.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 9192.00(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 8980.00(Month Low) to 9503.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #TRAN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 9503.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 10189.60(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1357.15(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1361.80(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 1341.45(Month Low) to 1388.60(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #RUT went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 1388.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1470.31(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1660.60(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1687.20(Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 1659.05(Month Low) to 1714.65(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #MID went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1714.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1804.98(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 5262.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 5349.00(Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 5273.50(Month Low) to 5428.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #VLE went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 5428.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 5727.94(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2238.85(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2278.85(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 2245.15(Month Low) to 2301.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #SP went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2301.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 2426.20(Average Objective).
March S & P 500(CME): The SPH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2236.20(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2274.50(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 2239.70(Month Low) to 2298.30(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SPH went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPH should exceed 2298.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 2403.76(Average Objective).
June S & P 500(CME): The SPM7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2230.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2269.30(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 2244.80(Month Low) to 2291.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SPM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should exceed 2291.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 2416.71(Average Objective).
March Canadian Dollar(CME): The CDH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 74.41(Prev Close), the market ended January at 76.83(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 74.35(Month Low) to 77.15(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, CDH went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDH should exceed 77.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 78.30(Average Objective).
April Platinum(NYMEX): The PLJ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 905.7(Prev Close), the market ended January at 996.5(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 903.6(Month Low) to 1008.7(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Platinum(NYMEX) also closed higher in January than December in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, PLJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLJ should exceed 1008.7(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 1105.4(Average Objective).
March Copper(CMX): The HGH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 250.55(Prev Close), the market ended January at 272.75(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 247.25(Month Low) to 273.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Copper(CMX) also closed higher in January than December in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, HGH went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGH should exceed 273.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 303.73(Average Objective).
May Copper(CMX): The HGK7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 251.20(Prev Close), the market ended January at 273.85(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 248.00(Month Low) to 274.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Copper(CMX) also closed higher in January than December in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, HGK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGK should exceed 274.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 304.23(Average Objective).
June Natural Gas(NYM): The NGM7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 3.560(Prev Close), the market ended January at 3.259(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 3.150(Month Low) to 3.541(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NGM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGM should penetrate 3.150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 2.781(Average Objective).
May Soybeans(CBOT): The SK7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1012.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1034.25(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 1001.25(Month Low) to 1088.25(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SK should exceed 1088.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1187.07(Average Objective).
July Soybeans(CBOT): The SN7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1019.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1042.00(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 1008.25(Month Low) to 1092.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SN should exceed 1092.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1191.65(Average Objective).
May Corn(CBOT): The CK7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 357.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 367.00(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 357.50(Month Low) to 377.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CK should exceed 377.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 405.67(Average Objective).
July Corn(CBOT): The CN7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 364.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 373.75(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 364.25(Month Low) to 384.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should exceed 384.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 413.67(Average Objective).
May Oats(CBOT): The OK7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 228.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 238.75(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 224.75(Month Low) to 254.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Oats(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, OK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OK should exceed 254.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 282.73(Average Objective).
March Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRH7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 9.61(Prev Close), the market ended January at 9.54(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 9.46(Month Low) to 10.10(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, RRH went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRH should penetrate 9.46(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 8.63(Average Objective).
May Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRK7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 9.86(Prev Close), the market ended January at 9.79(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 9.74(Month Low) to 10.32(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, RRK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRK should penetrate 9.74(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 8.72(Average Objective).
May Lean Hogs(CME): The HEK7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 72.900(Prev Close), the market ended January at 73.980(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 71.500(Month Low) to 75.000(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 15 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, HEK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEK should exceed 75.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 78.299(Average Objective).
July Sugar #11(ICE): The SBN7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 18.85(Prev Close), the market ended January at 20.20(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 18.87(Month Low) to 20.64(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SBN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBN should exceed 20.64(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 23.72(Average Objective).

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