MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Sep 30, 2016

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#TRAN

Higher

Sep

7879.00

8106.00

7712.00

8079.00

93%

100%

8106.00

8836.40

8079.00

#UTIL

Higher

Sep

666.85

698.60

656.00

668.15

29%

92%

698.60

733.35

668.15

#NDX

Higher

Sep

4771.10

4895.50

4656.50

4875.70

92%

94%

4895.50

5307.80

4875.70

#VLE

Higher

Sep

4934.20

5009.00

4805.10

4963.30

78%

88%

5009.00

5268.49

4963.30

TYZ6

Higher

Sep

130~295

131~235

129~260

131~040

68%

92%

131~235

134~283

131~040

EDZ6

Higher

Sep

99.050

99.115

99.015

99.080

65%

92%

99.115

99.443

99.080

EDH7

Higher

Sep

99.010

99.085

98.975

99.055

73%

96%

99.085

99.490

99.055

SFZ6

Higher

Sep

102.34

104.20

99.94

103.50

84%

85%

104.20

108.20

103.50

JYZ6

Higher

Sep

97.14

100.28

96.30

98.91

66%

86%

100.28

106.02

98.91

BPZ6

Lower

Sep

131.55

134.71

129.32

129.97

12%

84%

129.32

124.21

129.97

ADZ6

Higher

Sep

74.94

77.13

74.23

76.49

78%

87%

77.13

80.39

76.49

DXZ6

Lower

Sep

95.968

96.305

94.385

95.385

52%

89%

94.385

90.978

95.385

PAZ6

Higher

Sep

669.95

728.00

651.50

721.50

92%

85%

728.00

821.56

721.50

CLZ6

Higher

Sep

45.91

49.02

43.77

48.82

96%

88%

49.02

52.24

48.82

HOZ6

Higher

Sep

146.15

154.99

140.15

154.83

99%

86%

154.99

166.27

154.83

RBF7

Higher

Sep

131.73

143.27

126.09

143.09

99%

94%

143.27

151.87

143.09

NGZ6

Lower

Sep

3.203

3.352

3.037

3.132

30%

92%

3.037

2.603

3.132

NGF7

Lower

Sep

3.326

3.470

3.168

3.268

33%

92%

3.168

2.711

3.268

NGG7

Lower

Sep

3.325

3.471

3.175

3.275

34%

92%

3.175

2.792

3.275

SMZ6

Lower

Sep

306.70

321.30

294.10

299.60

20%

89%

294.10

273.93

299.60

SMF7

Lower

Sep

305.50

319.50

295.40

300.20

20%

93%

295.40

275.83

300.20

SMH7

Lower

Sep

303.80

318.20

297.60

302.10

22%

89%

297.60

277.18

302.10

CH7

Higher

Sep

326.00

353.75

325.50

346.50

74%

88%

353.75

386.81

346.50

KWZ6

Higher

Sep

397.50

425.75

398.50

415.50

62%

88%

425.75

453.85

415.50

KWH7

Higher

Sep

414.00

442.00

415.75

432.00

62%

92%

442.00

469.09

432.00

LCZ6

Lower

Sep

108.385

108.900

100.135

90%

100.135

95.605

100.135

FCF7

Lower

Sep

130.350

129.985

116.135

116.835

100%

116.135

110.234

116.835

FCH7

Lower

Sep

128.950

128.575

114.930

115.600

89%

114.930

109.670

115.600

HEZ6

Lower

Sep

57.530

58.330

43.980

93%

43.980

40.109

43.980

KCZ6

Higher

Sep

147.05

160.90

146.60

151.55

35%

87%

160.90

180.74

151.55

KCH7

Higher

Sep

150.20

164.10

149.70

154.90

36%

87%

164.10

184.59

154.90

SBH7

Higher

Sep

20.56

24.10

20.10

23.00

72%

90%

24.10

27.86

23.00

SBK7

Higher

Sep

20.04

23.10

19.63

22.16

73%

91%

23.10

26.13

22.16

CCZ6

Lower

Sep

2898

2954

2708

2761

22%

95%

2708

2478

2761

CCH7

Lower

Sep

2875

2925

2684

2734

21%

86%

2684

2441

2734

LBX6

Higher

Sep

319.1

340.1

299.8

336.4

91%

92%

340.1

372.0

336.4

LBF7

Higher

Sep

327.3

348.3

309.4

346.7

96%

92%

348.3

380.9

346.7

Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 7879.00(Prev Close), the market ended September at 8079.00(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 7712.00(Month Low) to 8106.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in September than August in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #TRAN went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 8106.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 8836.40(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 666.85(Prev Close), the market ended September at 668.15(Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 656.00(Month Low) to 698.60(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in September than August in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #UTIL went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 698.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 733.35(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 4771.10(Prev Close), the market ended September at 4875.70(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 4656.50(Month Low) to 4895.50(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in September than August in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #NDX went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 4895.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 5307.80(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 4934.20(Prev Close), the market ended September at 4963.30(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 4805.10(Month Low) to 5009.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in September than August in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #VLE went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 5009.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 5268.49(Average Objective).
December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 130~295(Prev Close), the market ended September at 131~040(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 129~260(Month Low) to 131~235(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in September than August in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, TYZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 131~235(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 134~283(Average Objective).
December Eurodollars(CME): The EDZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 99.050(Prev Close), the market ended September at 99.080(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 99.015(Month Low) to 99.115(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, EDZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 99.115(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 99.443(Average Objective).
March Eurodollars(CME): The EDH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 99.010(Prev Close), the market ended September at 99.055(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 98.975(Month Low) to 99.085(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, EDH went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 99.085(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 99.490(Average Objective).
December Swiss Franc(CME): The SFZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 102.34(Prev Close), the market ended September at 103.50(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 99.94(Month Low) to 104.20(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SFZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFZ should exceed 104.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 108.20(Average Objective).
December Japanese Yen(CME): The JYZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 97.14(Prev Close), the market ended September at 98.91(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 96.30(Month Low) to 100.28(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Japanese Yen(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, JYZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYZ should exceed 100.28(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 106.02(Average Objective).
December British Pound(CME): The BPZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 131.55(Prev Close), the market ended September at 129.97(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 129.32(Month Low) to 134.71(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December British Pound(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, BPZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BPZ should penetrate 129.32(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 124.21(Average Objective).
December Australian Dollar(CME): The ADZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 74.94(Prev Close), the market ended September at 76.49(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 74.23(Month Low) to 77.13(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, ADZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADZ should exceed 77.13(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 80.39(Average Objective).
December US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 95.968(Prev Close), the market ended September at 95.385(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 94.385(Month Low) to 96.305(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in September than August in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, DXZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should penetrate 94.385(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 90.978(Average Objective).
December Palladium(NYMEX): The PAZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 669.95(Prev Close), the market ended September at 721.50(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 651.50(Month Low) to 728.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in September than August in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, PAZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAZ should exceed 728.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 821.56(Average Objective).
December Crude Oil(NYM): The CLZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 45.91(Prev Close), the market ended September at 48.82(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 43.77(Month Low) to 49.02(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in September than August in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CLZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLZ should exceed 49.02(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 52.24(Average Objective).
December NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 146.15(Prev Close), the market ended September at 154.83(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 140.15(Month Low) to 154.99(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in September than August in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, HOZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOZ should exceed 154.99(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 166.27(Average Objective).
January RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBF7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 131.73(Prev Close), the market ended September at 143.09(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 126.09(Month Low) to 143.27(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in September than August in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RBF went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBF should exceed 143.27(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 151.87(Average Objective).
December Natural Gas(NYM): The NGZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 3.203(Prev Close), the market ended September at 3.132(Month Close), that being 30%(Pct Range) off of 3.037(Month Low) to 3.352(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in September than August in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 3.037(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 2.603(Average Objective).
January Natural Gas(NYM): The NGF7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 3.326(Prev Close), the market ended September at 3.268(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 3.168(Month Low) to 3.470(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in September than August in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, NGF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should penetrate 3.168(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2.711(Average Objective).
February Natural Gas(NYM): The NGG7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 3.325(Prev Close), the market ended September at 3.275(Month Close), that being 34%(Pct Range) off of 3.175(Month Low) to 3.471(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in September than August in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGG went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGG should penetrate 3.175(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 2.792(Average Objective).
December Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 306.70(Prev Close), the market ended September at 299.60(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 294.10(Month Low) to 321.30(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SMZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMZ should penetrate 294.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 273.93(Average Objective).
January Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMF7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 305.50(Prev Close), the market ended September at 300.20(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 295.40(Month Low) to 319.50(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SMF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMF should penetrate 295.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 275.83(Average Objective).
March Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMH7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 303.80(Prev Close), the market ended September at 302.10(Month Close), that being 22%(Pct Range) off of 297.60(Month Low) to 318.20(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SMH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMH should penetrate 297.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 277.18(Average Objective).
March Corn(CBOT): The CH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 326.00(Prev Close), the market ended September at 346.50(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 325.50(Month Low) to 353.75(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in September than August in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CH went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CH should exceed 353.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 386.81(Average Objective).
December Wheat(KCBT): The KWZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 397.50(Prev Close), the market ended September at 415.50(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 398.50(Month Low) to 425.75(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(KCBT) also closed higher in September than August in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, KWZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWZ should exceed 425.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 453.85(Average Objective).
March Wheat(KCBT): The KWH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 414.00(Prev Close), the market ended September at 432.00(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 415.75(Month Low) to 442.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(KCBT) also closed higher in September than August in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, KWH went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWH should exceed 442.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 469.09(Average Objective).
December Live Cattle(CME): The LCZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 108.385(Prev Close), the market ended September at 100.135(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 100.135(Month Low) to 108.900(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LCZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should penetrate 100.135(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 95.605(Average Objective).
January Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCF7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 130.350(Prev Close), the market ended September at 116.835(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 116.135(Month Low) to 129.985(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, FCF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCF should penetrate 116.135(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 110.234(Average Objective).
March Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCH7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 128.950(Prev Close), the market ended September at 115.600(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 114.930(Month Low) to 128.575(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, FCH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCH should penetrate 114.930(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 109.670(Average Objective).
December Lean Hogs(CME): The HEZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 57.530(Prev Close), the market ended September at 43.980(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 43.980(Month Low) to 58.330(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, HEZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEZ should penetrate 43.980(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 40.109(Average Objective).
December Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 147.05(Prev Close), the market ended September at 151.55(Month Close), that being 35%(Pct Range) off of 146.60(Month Low) to 160.90(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed higher in September than August in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, KCZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCZ should exceed 160.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 180.74(Average Objective).
March Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 150.20(Prev Close), the market ended September at 154.90(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 149.70(Month Low) to 164.10(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed higher in September than August in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, KCH went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should exceed 164.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 184.59(Average Objective).
March Sugar #11(ICE): The SBH7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 20.56(Prev Close), the market ended September at 23.00(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 20.10(Month Low) to 24.10(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in September than August in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SBH went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBH should exceed 24.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 27.86(Average Objective).
May Sugar #11(ICE): The SBK7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 20.04(Prev Close), the market ended September at 22.16(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 19.63(Month Low) to 23.10(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in September than August in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SBK went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBK should exceed 23.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 26.13(Average Objective).
December Cocoa(ICE): The CCZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 2898(Prev Close), the market ended September at 2761(Month Close), that being 22%(Pct Range) off of 2708(Month Low) to 2954(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in September than August in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CCZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should penetrate 2708(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 2478(Average Objective).
March Cocoa(ICE): The CCH7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 2875(Prev Close), the market ended September at 2734(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 2684(Month Low) to 2925(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in September than August in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CCH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should penetrate 2684(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 2441(Average Objective).
November Lumber(CME): The LBX6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 319.1(Prev Close), the market ended September at 336.4(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 299.8(Month Low) to 340.1(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Lumber(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, LBX went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBX should exceed 340.1(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 372.0(Average Objective).
January Lumber(CME): The LBF7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 327.3(Prev Close), the market ended September at 346.7(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 309.4(Month Low) to 348.3(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Lumber(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, LBF went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBF should exceed 348.3(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 380.9(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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