MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Jun 30, 2016

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Jun

17787.00

18016.00

17063.00

17930.00

91%

86%

18016.00

18804.80

17930.00

#UTIL

Higher

Jun

659.45

716.55

654.60

716.50

100%

84%

716.55

748.94

716.50

#MID

Higher

Jun

1493.05

1526.60

1409.50

1496.50

74%

85%

1526.60

1604.45

1496.50

DXU6

Higher

Jun

95.892

96.865

93.025

96.203

83%

92%

96.865

99.327

96.203

PLV6

Higher

Jun

981.9

1033.5

957.1

1024.3

88%

1033.5

1121.0

1024.3

PAU6

Higher

Jun

547.35

600.70

527.45

597.35

95%

93%

600.70

684.09

597.35

HGN6

Higher

Jun

209.55

220.45

201.30

219.45

95%

86%

220.45

232.74

219.45

HGU6

Higher

Jun

210.25

220.60

201.80

219.55

94%

95%

220.60

238.65

219.55

ITCOF7

Higher

Jun

51.47

54.31

48.96

51.48

47%

92%

54.31

59.40

51.48

SU6

Higher

Jun

1064.25

1192.00

1053.75

1162.25

78%

86%

1192.00

1358.87

1162.25

SX6

Higher

Jun

1055.75

1186.25

1045.00

1153.25

77%

85%

1186.25

1350.14

1153.25

BOQ6

Lower

Jun

31.94

33.47

30.90

31.53

25%

88%

30.90

27.82

31.53

BOU6

Lower

Jun

32.05

33.57

31.03

31.66

25%

92%

31.03

27.77

31.66

BOV6

Lower

Jun

32.14

33.67

31.13

31.78

26%

92%

31.13

27.91

31.78

KWU6

Lower

Jun

463.75

511.50

414.25

422.50

88%

414.25

381.99

422.50

KWZ6

Lower

Jun

487.25

535.50

440.00

447.75

85%

440.00

405.16

447.75

SBV6

Higher

Jun

17.66

21.22

17.34

20.33

77%

88%

21.22

24.00

20.33

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 17787.00(Prev Close), the market ended June at 17930.00(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 17063.00(Month Low) to 18016.00(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in June than May in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #DJ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 18016.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 18804.80(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 659.45(Prev Close), the market ended June at 716.50(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 654.60(Month Low) to 716.55(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in June than May in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #UTIL went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 716.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 748.94(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 1493.05(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1496.50(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 1409.50(Month Low) to 1526.60(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in June than May in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #MID went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1526.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1604.45(Average Objective).
September US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 95.892(Prev Close), the market ended June at 96.203(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 93.025(Month Low) to 96.865(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in June than May in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, DXU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should exceed 96.865(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 99.327(Average Objective).
October Platinum(NYMEX): The PLV6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 981.9(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1024.3(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 957.1(Month Low) to 1033.5(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Platinum(NYMEX) also closed higher in June than May in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, PLV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLV should exceed 1033.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 1121.0(Average Objective).
September Palladium(NYMEX): The PAU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 547.35(Prev Close), the market ended June at 597.35(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 527.45(Month Low) to 600.70(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in June than May in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, PAU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAU should exceed 600.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 684.09(Average Objective).
July Copper(CMX): The HGN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 209.55(Prev Close), the market ended June at 219.45(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 201.30(Month Low) to 220.45(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Copper(CMX) also closed higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, HGN went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGN should exceed 220.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 232.74(Average Objective).
September Copper(CMX): The HGU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 210.25(Prev Close), the market ended June at 219.55(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 201.80(Month Low) to 220.60(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Copper(CMX) also closed higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, HGU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGU should exceed 220.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 238.65(Average Objective).
January Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCOF7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 51.47(Prev Close), the market ended June at 51.48(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 48.96(Month Low) to 54.31(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in June than May in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, ITCOF went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOF should exceed 54.31(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 59.40(Average Objective).
September Soybeans(CBOT): The SU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 1064.25(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1162.25(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 1053.75(Month Low) to 1192.00(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in June than May in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SU should exceed 1192.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1358.87(Average Objective).
November Soybeans(CBOT): The SX6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 1055.75(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1153.25(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 1045.00(Month Low) to 1186.25(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in June than May in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SX went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should exceed 1186.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1350.14(Average Objective).
August Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOQ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 31.94(Prev Close), the market ended June at 31.53(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 30.90(Month Low) to 33.47(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, BOQ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOQ should penetrate 30.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 27.82(Average Objective).
September Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 32.05(Prev Close), the market ended June at 31.66(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 31.03(Month Low) to 33.57(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, BOU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOU should penetrate 31.03(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 27.77(Average Objective).
October Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOV6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 32.14(Prev Close), the market ended June at 31.78(Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 31.13(Month Low) to 33.67(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, BOV went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOV should penetrate 31.13(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 27.91(Average Objective).
September Wheat(KCBT): The KWU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 463.75(Prev Close), the market ended June at 422.50(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 414.25(Month Low) to 511.50(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in June than May in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, KWU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should penetrate 414.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 381.99(Average Objective).
December Wheat(KCBT): The KWZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 487.25(Prev Close), the market ended June at 447.75(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 440.00(Month Low) to 535.50(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in June than May in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, KWZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWZ should penetrate 440.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 405.16(Average Objective).
October Sugar #11(ICE): The SBV6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 17.66(Prev Close), the market ended June at 20.33(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 17.34(Month Low) to 21.22(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in June than May in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, SBV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should exceed 21.22(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 24.00(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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