MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Jan 29, 2016

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#OEX

Lower

Jan

911.45

909.55

809.95

868.35

59%

88%

809.95

775.24

868.35

#SP

Lower

Jan

2043.95

2038.20

1812.30

1940.25

57%

94%

1812.30

1718.88

1940.25

SPM6

Lower

Jan

2028.60

2004.70

1799.20

1921.90

60%

92%

1799.20

1714.39

1921.90

JYM6

Lower

Jan

83.57

86.53

82.48

82.87

10%

87%

82.48

79.35

82.87

NGM6

Lower

Jan

2.468

2.593

2.275

2.405

41%

85%

2.275

2.031

2.405

BOK6

Higher

Jan

30.96

31.42

29.22

31.09

85%

84%

31.42

35.31

31.09

SMQ6

Higher

Jan

274.20

281.90

271.90

277.70

58%

86%

281.90

309.28

277.70

CK6

Higher

Jan

364.50

377.25

354.25

376.75

98%

86%

377.25

407.42

376.75

CN6

Higher

Jan

370.50

382.00

360.25

381.50

98%

90%

382.00

413.33

381.50

CU6

Higher

Jan

375.25

386.75

366.00

386.00

96%

91%

386.75

415.57

386.00

WN6

Higher

Jan

483.25

499.00

469.25

490.50

71%

86%

499.00

536.60

490.50

KWU6

Higher

Jan

503.00

514.75

487.50

505.75

67%

85%

514.75

554.47

505.75

OK6

Lower

Jan

219.50

218.25

195.00

208.50

58%

88%

195.00

175.59

208.50

ON6

Lower

Jan

223.50

220.00

201.00

215.00

74%

88%

201.00

183.35

215.00

RRK6

Lower

Jan

12.12

12.21

10.96

11.63

54%

93%

10.96

9.83

11.63

RRN6

Lower

Jan

12.39

12.48

11.23

11.90

54%

93%

11.23

10.21

11.90

LCQ6

Lower

Jan

123.680

124.650

115.400

119.550

45%

84%

115.400

109.538

119.550

LEK6

Higher

Jan

73.650

76.850

72.335

76.850

100%

89%

76.850

80.343

76.850

KCK6

Lower

Jan

128.80

128.25

113.35

118.50

35%

95%

113.35

103.22

118.50

KCN6

Lower

Jan

130.75

130.20

115.45

120.25

33%

95%

115.45

105.05

120.25

KCU6

Lower

Jan

132.55

132.00

117.40

121.90

31%

89%

117.40

106.52

121.90

LBN6

Lower

Jan

261.1

258.1

236.0

242.0

27%

85%

236.0

218.2

242.0

S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 911.45(Prev Close), the market ended January at 868.35(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 809.95(Month Low) to 909.55(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed lower in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #OEX went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should penetrate 809.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 775.24(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2043.95(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1940.25(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 1812.30(Month Low) to 2038.20(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed lower in January than December in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #SP went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should penetrate 1812.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1718.88(Average Objective).
June S & P 500(CME): The SPM6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2028.60(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1921.90(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 1799.20(Month Low) to 2004.70(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, SPM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should penetrate 1799.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 1714.39(Average Objective).
June Japanese Yen(CME): The JYM6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 83.57(Prev Close), the market ended January at 82.87(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 82.48(Month Low) to 86.53(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, JYM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYM should penetrate 82.48(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 79.35(Average Objective).
June Natural Gas(NYM): The NGM6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2.468(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2.405(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 2.275(Month Low) to 2.593(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in January than December in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGM should penetrate 2.275(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2.031(Average Objective).
May Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 30.96(Prev Close), the market ended January at 31.09(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 29.22(Month Low) to 31.42(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, BOK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOK should exceed 31.42(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 35.31(Average Objective).
August Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 274.20(Prev Close), the market ended January at 277.70(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 271.90(Month Low) to 281.90(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SMQ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMQ should exceed 281.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 309.28(Average Objective).
May Corn(CBOT): The CK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 364.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 376.75(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 354.25(Month Low) to 377.25(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CK should exceed 377.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 407.42(Average Objective).
July Corn(CBOT): The CN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 370.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 381.50(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 360.25(Month Low) to 382.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should exceed 382.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 413.33(Average Objective).
September Corn(CBOT): The CU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 375.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 386.00(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 366.00(Month Low) to 386.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CU went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should exceed 386.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 415.57(Average Objective).
July Wheat(CBOT): The WN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 483.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 490.50(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 469.25(Month Low) to 499.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, WN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WN should exceed 499.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 536.60(Average Objective).
September Wheat(KCBT): The KWU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 503.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 505.75(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 487.50(Month Low) to 514.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed higher in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, KWU went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should exceed 514.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 554.47(Average Objective).
May Oats(CBOT): The OK6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 219.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 208.50(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 195.00(Month Low) to 218.25(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, OK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OK should penetrate 195.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 175.59(Average Objective).
July Oats(CBOT): The ON6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 223.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 215.00(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 201.00(Month Low) to 220.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, ON went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ON should penetrate 201.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 183.35(Average Objective).
May Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRK6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 12.12(Prev Close), the market ended January at 11.63(Month Close), that being 54%(Pct Range) off of 10.96(Month Low) to 12.21(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, RRK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRK should penetrate 10.96(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 9.83(Average Objective).
July Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRN6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 12.39(Prev Close), the market ended January at 11.90(Month Close), that being 54%(Pct Range) off of 11.23(Month Low) to 12.48(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, RRN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRN should penetrate 11.23(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 10.21(Average Objective).
August Live Cattle(CME): The LCQ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 123.680(Prev Close), the market ended January at 119.550(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 115.400(Month Low) to 124.650(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LCQ went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should penetrate 115.400(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 109.538(Average Objective).
May Lean Hogs(CME): The LEK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 73.650(Prev Close), the market ended January at 76.850(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 72.335(Month Low) to 76.850(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, LEK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEK should exceed 76.850(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 80.343(Average Objective).
May Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCK6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 128.80(Prev Close), the market ended January at 118.50(Month Close), that being 35%(Pct Range) off of 113.35(Month Low) to 128.25(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, KCK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCK should penetrate 113.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 103.22(Average Objective).
July Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCN6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 130.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 120.25(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 115.45(Month Low) to 130.20(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, KCN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCN should penetrate 115.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 105.05(Average Objective).
September Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 132.55(Prev Close), the market ended January at 121.90(Month Close), that being 31%(Pct Range) off of 117.40(Month Low) to 132.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, KCU went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCU should penetrate 117.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 106.52(Average Objective).
July Lumber(CME): The LBN6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 261.1(Prev Close), the market ended January at 242.0(Month Close), that being 27%(Pct Range) off of 236.0(Month Low) to 258.1(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lumber(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LBN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBN should penetrate 236.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 218.2(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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