MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Dec 31, 2015

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

BPH6

Lower

Dec

150.62

152.42

147.26

147.34

88%

147.26

140.96

147.34

PLJ6

Higher

Dec

833.7

896.6

826.9

893.2

95%

86%

896.6

1046.1

893.2

PAH6

Higher

Dec

543.20

574.50

522.55

562.00

76%

91%

574.50

694.98

562.00

HGH6

Higher

Dec

204.85

214.85

202.55

213.50

89%

92%

214.85

234.38

213.50

HGK6

Higher

Dec

205.50

215.40

203.40

214.15

90%

96%

215.40

235.11

214.15

NGJ6

Higher

Dec

2.346

2.426

2.017

2.387

90%

89%

2.426

2.866

2.387

NGK6

Higher

Dec

2.391

2.466

2.087

2.424

89%

100%

2.466

2.836

2.424

NGM6

Higher

Dec

2.437

2.510

2.147

2.468

88%

90%

2.510

2.864

2.468

KWN6

Lower

Dec

495.25

516.25

484.75

488.75

13%

86%

484.75

460.62

488.75

LCJ6

Higher

Dec

132.450

138.950

123.050

137.985

94%

93%

138.950

147.007

137.985

LCM6

Higher

Dec

123.780

128.450

115.480

127.800

95%

97%

128.450

134.088

127.800

LCQ6

Higher

Dec

121.585

124.085

112.800

123.680

96%

93%

124.085

129.290

123.680

FCH6

Higher

Dec

160.430

163.885

141.700

163.650

99%

92%

163.885

172.804

163.650

FCJ6

Higher

Dec

161.950

164.650

142.550

163.530

95%

92%

164.650

173.271

163.530

FCK6

Higher

Dec

162.485

164.900

142.650

163.850

95%

100%

164.900

172.616

163.850

FCQ6

Higher

Dec

164.050

166.580

145.250

165.280

94%

96%

166.580

174.496

165.280

LEK6

Higher

Dec

69.000

74.500

67.680

73.650

88%

100%

74.500

77.059

73.650

LEM6

Higher

Dec

73.230

78.780

71.385

78.000

89%

95%

78.780

84.880

78.000

LEQ6

Higher

Dec

73.480

77.500

71.585

76.980

91%

96%

77.500

82.813

76.980

SBN6

Higher

Dec

14.16

14.98

13.64

14.64

75%

92%

14.98

17.11

14.64

LBH6

Higher

Dec

247.0

270.0

240.3

256.1

53%

88%

270.0

296.7

256.1

LBK6

Higher

Dec

252.2

269.9

244.0

255.9

46%

93%

269.9

292.4

255.9

LBN6

Higher

Dec

258.7

267.8

250.0

261.1

62%

96%

267.8

289.3

261.1

CTH6

Higher

Dec

62.64

65.23

62.73

63.28

22%

87%

65.23

70.82

63.28

CTK6

Higher

Dec

63.43

65.80

63.46

64.11

28%

87%

65.80

71.51

64.11

CTN6

Higher

Dec

63.98

66.31

64.10

64.79

31%

87%

66.31

71.99

64.79

March British Pound(CME): The BPH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 150.62(Prev Close), the market ended December at 147.34(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 147.26(Month Low) to 152.42(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March British Pound(CME) also closed lower in December than November in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, BPH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BPH should penetrate 147.26(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 140.96(Average Objective).
April Platinum(NYMEX): The PLJ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 833.7(Prev Close), the market ended December at 893.2(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 826.9(Month Low) to 896.6(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Platinum(NYMEX) also closed higher in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, PLJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLJ should exceed 896.6(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1046.1(Average Objective).
March Palladium(NYMEX): The PAH6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 543.20(Prev Close), the market ended December at 562.00(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 522.55(Month Low) to 574.50(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, PAH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAH should exceed 574.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 694.98(Average Objective).
March Copper(CMX): The HGH6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 204.85(Prev Close), the market ended December at 213.50(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 202.55(Month Low) to 214.85(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Copper(CMX) also closed higher in December than November in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, HGH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGH should exceed 214.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 234.38(Average Objective).
May Copper(CMX): The HGK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 205.50(Prev Close), the market ended December at 214.15(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 203.40(Month Low) to 215.40(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Copper(CMX) also closed higher in December than November in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, HGK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGK should exceed 215.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 235.11(Average Objective).
April Natural Gas(NYM): The NGJ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2.346(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2.387(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 2.017(Month Low) to 2.426(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, NGJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGJ should exceed 2.426(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 2.866(Average Objective).
May Natural Gas(NYM): The NGK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2.391(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2.424(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 2.087(Month Low) to 2.466(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, NGK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGK should exceed 2.466(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 2.836(Average Objective).
June Natural Gas(NYM): The NGM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2.437(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2.468(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 2.147(Month Low) to 2.510(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in December than November in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, NGM went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGM should exceed 2.510(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 2.864(Average Objective).
July Wheat(KCBT): The KWN6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 495.25(Prev Close), the market ended December at 488.75(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 484.75(Month Low) to 516.25(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in December than November in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, KWN went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWN should penetrate 484.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 460.62(Average Objective).
April Live Cattle(CME): The LCJ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 132.450(Prev Close), the market ended December at 137.985(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 123.050(Month Low) to 138.950(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, LCJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCJ should exceed 138.950(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 147.007(Average Objective).
June Live Cattle(CME): The LCM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 123.780(Prev Close), the market ended December at 127.800(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 115.480(Month Low) to 128.450(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, LCM went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 97%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCM should exceed 128.450(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 134.088(Average Objective).
August Live Cattle(CME): The LCQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 121.585(Prev Close), the market ended December at 123.680(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 112.800(Month Low) to 124.085(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, LCQ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should exceed 124.085(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 129.290(Average Objective).
March Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCH6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 160.430(Prev Close), the market ended December at 163.650(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 141.700(Month Low) to 163.885(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, FCH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCH should exceed 163.885(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 172.804(Average Objective).
April Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCJ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 161.950(Prev Close), the market ended December at 163.530(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 142.550(Month Low) to 164.650(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, FCJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCJ should exceed 164.650(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 173.271(Average Objective).
May Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 162.485(Prev Close), the market ended December at 163.850(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 142.650(Month Low) to 164.900(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, FCK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCK should exceed 164.900(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 172.616(Average Objective).
August Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 164.050(Prev Close), the market ended December at 165.280(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 145.250(Month Low) to 166.580(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, FCQ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCQ should exceed 166.580(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 174.496(Average Objective).
May Lean Hogs(CME): The LEK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 69.000(Prev Close), the market ended December at 73.650(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 67.680(Month Low) to 74.500(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 3(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 3, LEK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 3 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEK should exceed 74.500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 3 years) a potential move toward 77.059(Average Objective).
June Lean Hogs(CME): The LEM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 73.230(Prev Close), the market ended December at 78.000(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 71.385(Month Low) to 78.780(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, LEM went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEM should exceed 78.780(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 84.880(Average Objective).
August Lean Hogs(CME): The LEQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 73.480(Prev Close), the market ended December at 76.980(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 71.585(Month Low) to 77.500(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, LEQ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEQ should exceed 77.500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 82.813(Average Objective).
July Sugar #11(ICE): The SBN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 14.16(Prev Close), the market ended December at 14.64(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 13.64(Month Low) to 14.98(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in December than November in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, SBN went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBN should exceed 14.98(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 17.11(Average Objective).
March Lumber(CME): The LBH6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 247.0(Prev Close), the market ended December at 256.1(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 240.3(Month Low) to 270.0(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Lumber(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, LBH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBH should exceed 270.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 296.7(Average Objective).
May Lumber(CME): The LBK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 252.2(Prev Close), the market ended December at 255.9(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 244.0(Month Low) to 269.9(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lumber(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, LBK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBK should exceed 269.9(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 292.4(Average Objective).
July Lumber(CME): The LBN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 258.7(Prev Close), the market ended December at 261.1(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 250.0(Month Low) to 267.8(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lumber(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, LBN went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBN should exceed 267.8(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 289.3(Average Objective).
March Cotton(ICE): The CTH6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 62.64(Prev Close), the market ended December at 63.28(Month Close), that being 22%(Pct Range) off of 62.73(Month Low) to 65.23(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in December than November in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, CTH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTH should exceed 65.23(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 70.82(Average Objective).
May Cotton(ICE): The CTK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 63.43(Prev Close), the market ended December at 64.11(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 63.46(Month Low) to 65.80(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in December than November in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, CTK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTK should exceed 65.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 71.51(Average Objective).
July Cotton(ICE): The CTN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 63.98(Prev Close), the market ended December at 64.79(Month Close), that being 31%(Pct Range) off of 64.10(Month Low) to 66.31(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in December than November in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, CTN went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTN should exceed 66.31(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 71.99(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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