MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Nov 30, 2015

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Nov

17664.00

17978.00

17210.00

17720.00

66%

93%

17978.00

18935.10

17720.00

#NDX

Higher

Nov

4648.80

4737.10

4486.10

4664.50

71%

94%

4737.10

5157.45

4664.50

#RUT

Higher

Nov

1161.85

1204.85

1140.75

1198.10

89%

96%

1204.85

1287.41

1198.10

#MID

Higher

Nov

1444.75

1473.15

1403.50

1461.80

84%

96%

1473.15

1560.45

1461.80

#VLE

Higher

Nov

4513.10

4625.70

4371.70

4549.70

70%

100%

4625.70

4892.05

4549.70

#SP

Higher

Nov

2079.35

2116.50

2019.40

2080.40

63%

93%

2116.50

2226.37

2080.40

SPH6

Higher

Nov

2066.10

2103.30

2008.20

2072.70

68%

100%

2103.30

2204.25

2072.70

JYH6

Lower

Nov

83.06

83.36

81.03

81.45

18%

91%

81.03

78.09

81.45

SIH6

Lower

Nov

1561.5

1559.5

1389.0

1408.6

11%

85%

1389.0

1280.4

1408.6

HOH6

Lower

Nov

157.24

162.25

139.34

139.59

100%

139.34

123.08

139.59

HOJ6

Lower

Nov

157.33

162.07

140.32

140.52

95%

140.32

122.37

140.52

HOK6

Lower

Nov

158.24

162.63

141.93

142.15

89%

141.93

125.68

142.15

RBJ6

Lower

Nov

163.22

169.30

147.20

155.55

38%

86%

147.20

128.10

155.55

RBK6

Lower

Nov

164.70

170.39

148.89

157.11

38%

86%

148.89

130.53

157.11

NGJ6

Lower

Nov

2.451

2.581

2.289

2.346

20%

84%

2.289

1.921

2.346

WH6

Lower

Nov

525.50

532.75

475.00

475.50

87%

475.00

431.27

475.50

WK6

Lower

Nov

529.00

535.50

483.50

484.00

88%

483.50

443.37

484.00

KWH6

Lower

Nov

510.00

515.00

465.50

472.75

15%

85%

465.50

427.86

472.75

KWK6

Lower

Nov

520.00

525.00

476.75

483.75

15%

86%

476.75

439.15

483.75

LEG6

Lower

Nov

62.750

63.250

53.980

56.800

30%

91%

53.980

49.976

56.800

LEK6

Lower

Nov

72.600

72.930

66.300

69.000

41%

100%

66.300

69.000

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 17664.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 17720.00(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 17210.00(Month Low) to 17978.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in November than October in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, the #DJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 17978.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 18935.10(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 4648.80(Prev Close), the market ended November at 4664.50(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 4486.10(Month Low) to 4737.10(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in November than October in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #NDX went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 4737.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 5157.45(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1161.85(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1198.10(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 1140.75(Month Low) to 1204.85(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in November than October in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, the #RUT went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 1204.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1287.41(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1444.75(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1461.80(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 1403.50(Month Low) to 1473.15(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in November than October in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, the #MID went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1473.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1560.45(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 4513.10(Prev Close), the market ended November at 4549.70(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 4371.70(Month Low) to 4625.70(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in November than October in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #VLE went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 4625.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 4892.05(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 2079.35(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2080.40(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 2019.40(Month Low) to 2116.50(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in November than October in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, the #SP went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2116.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 2226.37(Average Objective).
March S & P 500(CME): The SPH6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 2066.10(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2072.70(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 2008.20(Month Low) to 2103.30(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SPH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPH should exceed 2103.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 2204.25(Average Objective).
March Japanese Yen(CME): The JYH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 83.06(Prev Close), the market ended November at 81.45(Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 81.03(Month Low) to 83.36(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in November than October in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, JYH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 81.03(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 78.09(Average Objective).
March Silver(CMX): The SIH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1561.5(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1408.6(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 1389.0(Month Low) to 1559.5(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Silver(CMX) also closed lower in November than October in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SIH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIH should penetrate 1389.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1280.4(Average Objective).
March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 157.24(Prev Close), the market ended November at 139.59(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 139.34(Month Low) to 162.25(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HOH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should penetrate 139.34(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 123.08(Average Objective).
April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOJ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 157.33(Prev Close), the market ended November at 140.52(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 140.32(Month Low) to 162.07(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HOJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should penetrate 140.32(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 122.37(Average Objective).
May NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOK6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 158.24(Prev Close), the market ended November at 142.15(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 141.93(Month Low) to 162.63(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, HOK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOK should penetrate 141.93(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 125.68(Average Objective).
April RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBJ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 163.22(Prev Close), the market ended November at 155.55(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 147.20(Month Low) to 169.30(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, RBJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBJ should penetrate 147.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 128.10(Average Objective).
May RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBK6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 164.70(Prev Close), the market ended November at 157.11(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 148.89(Month Low) to 170.39(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, RBK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBK should penetrate 148.89(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 130.53(Average Objective).
April Natural Gas(NYM): The NGJ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 2.451(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2.346(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 2.289(Month Low) to 2.581(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, NGJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGJ should penetrate 2.289(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1.921(Average Objective).
March Wheat(CBOT): The WH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 525.50(Prev Close), the market ended November at 475.50(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 475.00(Month Low) to 532.75(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in November than October in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, WH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WH should penetrate 475.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 431.27(Average Objective).
May Wheat(CBOT): The WK6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 529.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 484.00(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 483.50(Month Low) to 535.50(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in November than October in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, WK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WK should penetrate 483.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 443.37(Average Objective).
March Wheat(KCBT): The KWH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 510.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 472.75(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 465.50(Month Low) to 515.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in November than October in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, KWH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWH should penetrate 465.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 427.86(Average Objective).
May Wheat(KCBT): The KWK6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 520.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 483.75(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 476.75(Month Low) to 525.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in November than October in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, KWK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should penetrate 476.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 439.15(Average Objective).
February Lean Hogs(CME): The LEG6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 62.750(Prev Close), the market ended November at 56.800(Month Close), that being 30%(Pct Range) off of 53.980(Month Low) to 63.250(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in November than October in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, LEG went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEG should penetrate 53.980(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 49.976(Average Objective).
May Lean Hogs(CME): The LEK6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 72.600(Prev Close), the market ended November at 69.000(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 66.300(Month Low) to 72.930(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in November than October in 1(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 1, LEK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 1 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEK should penetrate 66.300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February.

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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