MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Oct 31, 2015

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Oct

16285.00

17800.00

16014.00

17664.00

92%

88%

17800.00

18818.97

17664.00

#TRAN

Higher

Oct

7786.00

8321.00

7683.00

8128.00

70%

91%

8321.00

8919.59

8128.00

#UTIL

Higher

Oct

576.85

606.75

565.75

580.50

36%

90%

606.75

635.17

580.50

#NDX

Higher

Oct

4181.10

4681.20

4124.60

4648.80

94%

89%

4681.20

5149.88

4648.80

#RUT

Higher

Oct

1100.70

1178.80

1080.60

1161.85

83%

85%

1178.80

1271.30

1161.85

#SP

Higher

Oct

1920.05

2094.30

1893.70

2079.35

93%

85%

2094.30

2224.92

2079.35

JYH6

Lower

Oct

83.62

84.91

82.51

83.06

23%

86%

82.51

79.11

83.06

HOG6

Lower

Oct

158.94

170.29

148.05

156.31

37%

85%

148.05

127.89

156.31

HOH6

Lower

Oct

159.18

170.53

148.96

157.24

38%

88%

148.96

128.09

157.24

HOJ6

Lower

Oct

158.70

169.93

149.43

157.33

39%

88%

149.43

129.91

157.33

FCF6

Higher

Oct

167.280

187.500

164.050

183.200

82%

85%

187.500

194.484

183.200

KCH6

Lower

Oct

124.40

140.90

119.70

124.25

21%

86%

119.70

108.71

124.25

CCH6

Higher

Oct

3117

3265

3035

3263

99%

86%

3265

3548

3263

CCK6

Higher

Oct

3112

3256

3030

3255

100%

92%

3256

3532

3255

LBH6

Higher

Oct

242.6

270.4

230.0

256.9

67%

89%

270.4

293.1

256.9

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 16285.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 17664.00(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 16014.00(Month Low) to 17800.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in October than September in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #DJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 17800.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 18818.97(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 7786.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 8128.00(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 7683.00(Month Low) to 8321.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in October than September in 32(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 32, the #TRAN went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 29 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 8321.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 29 years) a potential move toward 8919.59(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 576.85(Prev Close), the market ended October at 580.50(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 565.75(Month Low) to 606.75(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in October than September in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, the #UTIL went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 606.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 635.17(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 4181.10(Prev Close), the market ended October at 4648.80(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 4124.60(Month Low) to 4681.20(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in October than September in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #NDX went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 4681.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 5149.88(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1100.70(Prev Close), the market ended October at 1161.85(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 1080.60(Month Low) to 1178.80(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in October than September in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #RUT went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 1178.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1271.30(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1920.05(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2079.35(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 1893.70(Month Low) to 2094.30(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in October than September in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #SP went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2094.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 2224.92(Average Objective).
March Japanese Yen(CME): The JYH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 83.62(Prev Close), the market ended October at 83.06(Month Close), that being 23%(Pct Range) off of 82.51(Month Low) to 84.91(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, JYH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 82.51(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 79.11(Average Objective).
February NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOG6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 158.94(Prev Close), the market ended October at 156.31(Month Close), that being 37%(Pct Range) off of 148.05(Month Low) to 170.29(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, HOG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOG should penetrate 148.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 127.89(Average Objective).
March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 159.18(Prev Close), the market ended October at 157.24(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 148.96(Month Low) to 170.53(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, HOH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should penetrate 148.96(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 128.09(Average Objective).
April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOJ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 158.70(Prev Close), the market ended October at 157.33(Month Close), that being 39%(Pct Range) off of 149.43(Month Low) to 169.93(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, HOJ went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should penetrate 149.43(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 129.91(Average Objective).
January Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCF6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 167.280(Prev Close), the market ended October at 183.200(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 164.050(Month Low) to 187.500(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, FCF went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCF should exceed 187.500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 194.484(Average Objective).
March Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 124.40(Prev Close), the market ended October at 124.25(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 119.70(Month Low) to 140.90(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in October than September in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, KCH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should penetrate 119.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 108.71(Average Objective).
March Cocoa(ICE): The CCH6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 3117(Prev Close), the market ended October at 3263(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 3035(Month Low) to 3265(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CCH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should exceed 3265(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 3548(Average Objective).
May Cocoa(ICE): The CCK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 3112(Prev Close), the market ended October at 3255(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 3030(Month Low) to 3256(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in October than September in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, CCK went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCK should exceed 3256(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 3532(Average Objective).
March Lumber(CME): The LBH6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 242.6(Prev Close), the market ended October at 256.9(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 230.0(Month Low) to 270.4(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Lumber(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, LBH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBH should exceed 270.4(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 293.1(Average Objective).

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