MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Sep 30, 2015

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#UTIL

Higher

Sep

562.00

577.70

539.95

576.85

98%

92%

577.70

607.70

576.85

#SSNI

Lower

Sep

18890

18777

16901

17388

26%

85%

16901

15324

17388

USZ5

Higher

Sep

154~200

158~050

151~250

157~110

87%

85%

158~050

163~249

157~110

TYZ5

Higher

Sep

127~020

128~295

126~165

128~235

92%

128~295

132~031

128~235

EDZ5

Higher

Sep

99.520

99.605

99.480

99.585

84%

91%

99.605

99.948

99.585

EDH6

Higher

Sep

99.380

99.495

99.335

99.480

91%

96%

99.495

99.916

99.480

SFZ5

Lower

Sep

103.91

105.27

101.87

102.82

28%

85%

101.87

98.44

102.82

EUZ5

Lower

Sep

112.56

114.76

111.06

111.79

20%

100%

111.06

107.50

111.79

JYZ5

Higher

Sep

82.71

84.46

82.51

83.43

47%

85%

84.46

89.52

83.43

CDZ5

Lower

Sep

75.87

76.83

74.28

74.88

24%

100%

74.28

73.05

74.88

DXZ5

Higher

Sep

96.135

96.920

94.195

96.480

84%

100%

96.920

100.087

96.480

PAZ5

Higher

Sep

602.25

678.00

568.00

650.95

75%

84%

678.00

763.10

650.95

HOF6

Lower

Sep

175.24

172.50

154.28

157.62

18%

87%

154.28

140.92

157.62

NGF6

Lower

Sep

3.016

3.103

2.821

2.831

91%

2.821

2.454

2.831

NGG6

Lower

Sep

3.013

3.097

2.832

2.842

92%

2.832

2.527

2.842

NGH6

Lower

Sep

2.978

3.062

2.803

2.814

91%

2.803

2.522

2.814

BOF6

Lower

Sep

28.51

28.48

26.50

27.66

59%

88%

26.50

24.38

27.66

BOH6

Lower

Sep

28.72

28.71

26.74

27.90

59%

88%

26.74

24.66

27.90

BOK6

Lower

Sep

28.86

26.96

28.09

59%

85%

26.96

24.74

28.09

SMF6

Lower

Sep

309.30

317.00

299.20

308.20

51%

89%

299.20

279.51

308.20

SMH6

Lower

Sep

306.90

314.30

298.40

306.70

52%

85%

298.40

277.96

306.70

CH6

Higher

Sep

386.25

406.25

371.75

398.75

78%

88%

406.25

446.35

398.75

KWZ5

Higher

Sep

487.75

506.75

465.75

501.75

88%

87%

506.75

541.46

501.75

KWH6

Higher

Sep

501.75

521.00

480.00

516.25

88%

91%

521.00

554.06

516.25

KWK6

Higher

Sep

511.50

531.00

490.75

526.25

88%

91%

531.00

562.05

526.25

OZ5

Lower

Sep

230.25

240.00

220.00

226.75

34%

89%

220.00

201.23

226.75

OH6

Higher

Sep

229.75

242.50

219.75

230.00

45%

90%

242.50

267.98

230.00

LCZ5

Lower

Sep

145.430

146.700

129.800

130.925

89%

129.800

123.846

130.925

FCF6

Lower

Sep

189.030

191.800

166.525

167.275

100%

166.525

158.128

167.275

FCH6

Lower

Sep

186.600

188.900

164.750

165.700

89%

164.750

157.418

165.700

LEZ5

Higher

Sep

63.630

67.600

61.500

66.725

86%

67.600

73.135

66.725

JOF6

Lower

Sep

129.00

130.10

105.05

107.15

85%

105.05

94.63

107.15

SBH6

Higher

Sep

11.77

13.00

11.48

12.88

92%

90%

13.00

15.06

12.88

SBK6

Higher

Sep

11.95

12.88

11.44

12.80

94%

91%

12.88

14.59

12.80

CTH6

Lower

Sep

62.58

63.93

59.45

60.31

19%

89%

59.45

55.44

60.31

Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 562.00(Prev Close), the market ended September at 576.85(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 539.95(Month Low) to 577.70(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in September than August in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #UTIL went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 577.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 607.70(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 18890(Prev Close), the market ended September at 17388(Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 16901(Month Low) to 18777(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed lower in September than August in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #SSNI went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should penetrate 16901(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 15324(Average Objective).
December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 154~200(Prev Close), the market ended September at 157~110(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 151~250(Month Low) to 158~050(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in September than August in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, USZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 158~050(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 163~249(Average Objective).
December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 127~020(Prev Close), the market ended September at 128~235(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 126~165(Month Low) to 128~295(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in September than August in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, TYZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 128~295(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 132~031(Average Objective).
December Eurodollars(CME): The EDZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 99.520(Prev Close), the market ended September at 99.585(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 99.480(Month Low) to 99.605(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, EDZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 99.605(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 99.948(Average Objective).
March Eurodollars(CME): The EDH6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 99.380(Prev Close), the market ended September at 99.480(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 99.335(Month Low) to 99.495(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, EDH went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 99.495(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 99.916(Average Objective).
December Swiss Franc(CME): The SFZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 103.91(Prev Close), the market ended September at 102.82(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 101.87(Month Low) to 105.27(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, SFZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFZ should penetrate 101.87(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 98.44(Average Objective).
December EuroFX(CME): The EUZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 112.56(Prev Close), the market ended September at 111.79(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 111.06(Month Low) to 114.76(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December EuroFX(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 6(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 6, EUZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUZ should penetrate 111.06(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 107.50(Average Objective).
December Japanese Yen(CME): The JYZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 82.71(Prev Close), the market ended September at 83.43(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 82.51(Month Low) to 84.46(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Japanese Yen(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, JYZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYZ should exceed 84.46(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 89.52(Average Objective).
December Canadian Dollar(CME): The CDZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 75.87(Prev Close), the market ended September at 74.88(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 74.28(Month Low) to 76.83(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, CDZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDZ should penetrate 74.28(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 73.05(Average Objective).
December US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 96.135(Prev Close), the market ended September at 96.480(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 94.195(Month Low) to 96.920(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in September than August in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, DXZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should exceed 96.920(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 100.087(Average Objective).
December Palladium(NYMEX): The PAZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 602.25(Prev Close), the market ended September at 650.95(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 568.00(Month Low) to 678.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in September than August in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, PAZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAZ should exceed 678.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 763.10(Average Objective).
January NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOF6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 175.24(Prev Close), the market ended September at 157.62(Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 154.28(Month Low) to 172.50(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in September than August in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, HOF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOF should penetrate 154.28(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 140.92(Average Objective).
January Natural Gas(NYM): The NGF6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 3.016(Prev Close), the market ended September at 2.831(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 2.821(Month Low) to 3.103(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in September than August in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, NGF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should penetrate 2.821(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 2.454(Average Objective).
February Natural Gas(NYM): The NGG6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 3.013(Prev Close), the market ended September at 2.842(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 2.832(Month Low) to 3.097(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in September than August in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, NGG went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGG should penetrate 2.832(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2.527(Average Objective).
March Natural Gas(NYM): The NGH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 2.978(Prev Close), the market ended September at 2.814(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 2.803(Month Low) to 3.062(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in September than August in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, NGH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGH should penetrate 2.803(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 2.522(Average Objective).
January Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOF6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 28.51(Prev Close), the market ended September at 27.66(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 26.50(Month Low) to 28.48(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, BOF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOF should penetrate 26.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 24.38(Average Objective).
March Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 28.72(Prev Close), the market ended September at 27.90(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 26.74(Month Low) to 28.71(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, BOH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOH should penetrate 26.74(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 24.66(Average Objective).
May Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOK6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 28.86(Prev Close), the market ended September at 28.09(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 26.96(Month Low) to 28.86(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, BOK went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOK should penetrate 26.96(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 24.74(Average Objective).
January Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMF6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 309.30(Prev Close), the market ended September at 308.20(Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 299.20(Month Low) to 317.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SMF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMF should penetrate 299.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 279.51(Average Objective).
March Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 306.90(Prev Close), the market ended September at 306.70(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 298.40(Month Low) to 314.30(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SMH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMH should penetrate 298.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 277.96(Average Objective).
March Corn(CBOT): The CH6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 386.25(Prev Close), the market ended September at 398.75(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 371.75(Month Low) to 406.25(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in September than August in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CH went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CH should exceed 406.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 446.35(Average Objective).
December Wheat(KCBT): The KWZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 487.75(Prev Close), the market ended September at 501.75(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 465.75(Month Low) to 506.75(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(KCBT) also closed higher in September than August in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, KWZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWZ should exceed 506.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 541.46(Average Objective).
March Wheat(KCBT): The KWH6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 501.75(Prev Close), the market ended September at 516.25(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 480.00(Month Low) to 521.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(KCBT) also closed higher in September than August in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, KWH went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWH should exceed 521.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 554.06(Average Objective).
May Wheat(KCBT): The KWK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 511.50(Prev Close), the market ended September at 526.25(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 490.75(Month Low) to 531.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed higher in September than August in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, KWK went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should exceed 531.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 562.05(Average Objective).
December Oats(CBOT): The OZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 230.25(Prev Close), the market ended September at 226.75(Month Close), that being 34%(Pct Range) off of 220.00(Month Low) to 240.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, OZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OZ should penetrate 220.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 201.23(Average Objective).
March Oats(CBOT): The OH6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 229.75(Prev Close), the market ended September at 230.00(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 219.75(Month Low) to 242.50(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Oats(CBOT) also closed higher in September than August in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, OH went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OH should exceed 242.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 267.98(Average Objective).
December Live Cattle(CME): The LCZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 145.430(Prev Close), the market ended September at 130.925(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 129.800(Month Low) to 146.700(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LCZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should penetrate 129.800(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 123.846(Average Objective).
January Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCF6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 189.030(Prev Close), the market ended September at 167.275(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 166.525(Month Low) to 191.800(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, FCF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCF should penetrate 166.525(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 158.128(Average Objective).
March Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 186.600(Prev Close), the market ended September at 165.700(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 164.750(Month Low) to 188.900(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, FCH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCH should penetrate 164.750(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 157.418(Average Objective).
December Lean Hogs(CME): The LEZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 63.630(Prev Close), the market ended September at 66.725(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 61.500(Month Low) to 67.600(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, LEZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEZ should exceed 67.600(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 73.135(Average Objective).
January Orange Juice(ICE): The JOF6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 129.00(Prev Close), the market ended September at 107.15(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 105.05(Month Low) to 130.10(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Orange Juice(ICE) also closed lower in September than August in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, JOF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOF should penetrate 105.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 94.63(Average Objective).
March Sugar #11(ICE): The SBH6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 11.77(Prev Close), the market ended September at 12.88(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 11.48(Month Low) to 13.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in September than August in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SBH went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBH should exceed 13.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 15.06(Average Objective).
May Sugar #11(ICE): The SBK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 11.95(Prev Close), the market ended September at 12.80(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 11.44(Month Low) to 12.88(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in September than August in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SBK went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBK should exceed 12.88(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 14.59(Average Objective).
March Cotton(ICE): The CTH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 62.58(Prev Close), the market ended September at 60.31(Month Close), that being 19%(Pct Range) off of 59.45(Month Low) to 63.93(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in September than August in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, CTH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTH should penetrate 59.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 55.44(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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