MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Jul 31, 2015

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Jul

17620.00

18137.00

17399.00

17690.00

39%

84%

18137.00

18890.88

17690.00

#UTIL

Higher

Jul

550.30

588.70

549.65

583.95

88%

588.70

612.09

583.95

#OEX

Higher

Jul

908.25

947.85

899.35

931.15

66%

89%

947.85

986.72

931.15

#NDX

Higher

Jul

4396.80

4694.10

4344.20

4588.90

70%

88%

4694.10

5001.83

4588.90

#MID

Higher

Jul

1502.15

1524.75

1461.75

1502.90

65%

100%

1524.75

1599.60

1502.90

#SP

Higher

Jul

2063.10

2132.80

2044.00

2103.85

67%

95%

2132.80

2229.49

2103.85

SPZ5

Higher

Jul

2046.60

2115.10

2028.90

2090.50

71%

100%

2115.10

2191.39

2090.50

USZ5

Higher

Jul

149~070

155~040

146~210

154~140

92%

95%

155~040

162~062

154~140

TYZ5

Higher

Jul

125~095

126~270

124~160

126~225

94%

95%

126~270

130~301

126~225

EDZ5

Higher

Jul

99.465

99.545

99.420

99.475

44%

100%

99.545

99.998

99.475

EDH6

Higher

Jul

99.280

99.390

99.225

99.305

48%

90%

99.390

100.000

99.305

ADZ5

Lower

Jul

76.49

76.60

71.86

72.42

12%

86%

71.86

68.69

72.42

HGZ5

Lower

Jul

262.25

265.35

234.90

237.65

92%

234.90

213.99

237.65

HGH6

Lower

Jul

262.95

265.90

236.60

238.80

91%

236.60

215.93

238.80

NGZ5

Lower

Jul

3.134

3.237

3.020

3.042

10%

85%

3.020

2.692

3.042

NGF6

Lower

Jul

3.241

3.343

3.131

3.152

10%

86%

3.131

2.803

3.152

WZ5

Lower

Jul

622.00

501.50

504.75

95%

501.50

458.99

504.75

WH6

Lower

Jul

628.00

506.75

510.50

90%

506.75

463.74

510.50

KWH6

Lower

Jul

639.50

524.25

525.75

89%

524.25

481.47

525.75

LCV5

Lower

Jul

150.700

154.485

143.300

145.925

23%

93%

143.300

136.566

145.925

LCG6

Lower

Jul

152.030

155.385

146.235

147.450

13%

86%

146.235

139.807

147.450

LEZ5

Lower

Jul

64.225

64.650

57.050

60.450

45%

85%

57.050

52.479

60.450

LEG6

Lower

Jul

67.930

69.100

62.750

66.675

62%

89%

62.750

58.509

66.675

CCH6

Lower

Jul

3250

3368

3168

3226

29%

89%

3168

2935

3226

CTZ5

Lower

Jul

67.91

68.11

63.27

64.21

19%

87%

63.27

58.70

64.21

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 17620.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 17690.00(Month Close), that being 39%(Pct Range) off of 17399.00(Month Low) to 18137.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in July than June in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #DJ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 18137.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 18890.88(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 550.30(Prev Close), the market ended July at 583.95(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 549.65(Month Low) to 588.70(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in July than June in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #UTIL went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 588.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 612.09(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 908.25(Prev Close), the market ended July at 931.15(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 899.35(Month Low) to 947.85(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in July than June in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #OEX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 947.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 986.72(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 4396.80(Prev Close), the market ended July at 4588.90(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 4344.20(Month Low) to 4694.10(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #NDX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 4694.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 5001.83(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1502.15(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1502.90(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 1461.75(Month Low) to 1524.75(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, the #MID went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1524.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 1599.60(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2063.10(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2103.85(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 2044.00(Month Low) to 2132.80(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #SP went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2132.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 2229.49(Average Objective).
December S & P 500(CME): The SPZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2046.60(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2090.50(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 2028.90(Month Low) to 2115.10(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, SPZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPZ should exceed 2115.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 2191.39(Average Objective).
December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 149~070(Prev Close), the market ended July at 154~140(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 146~210(Month Low) to 155~040(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, USZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 155~040(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 162~062(Average Objective).
December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 125~095(Prev Close), the market ended July at 126~225(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 124~160(Month Low) to 126~270(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, TYZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 126~270(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 130~301(Average Objective).
December Eurodollars(CME): The EDZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 99.465(Prev Close), the market ended July at 99.475(Month Close), that being 44%(Pct Range) off of 99.420(Month Low) to 99.545(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, EDZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 99.545(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 99.998(Average Objective).
March Eurodollars(CME): The EDH6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 99.280(Prev Close), the market ended July at 99.305(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 99.225(Month Low) to 99.390(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, EDH went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 99.390(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 100.000(Average Objective).
December Australian Dollar(CME): The ADZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 76.49(Prev Close), the market ended July at 72.42(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 71.86(Month Low) to 76.60(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Australian Dollar(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, ADZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADZ should penetrate 71.86(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 68.69(Average Objective).
December Copper(CMX): The HGZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 262.25(Prev Close), the market ended July at 237.65(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 234.90(Month Low) to 265.35(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Copper(CMX) also closed lower in July than June in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, HGZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGZ should penetrate 234.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 213.99(Average Objective).
March Copper(CMX): The HGH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 262.95(Prev Close), the market ended July at 238.80(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 236.60(Month Low) to 265.90(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Copper(CMX) also closed lower in July than June in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, HGH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGH should penetrate 236.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 215.93(Average Objective).
December Natural Gas(NYM): The NGZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 3.134(Prev Close), the market ended July at 3.042(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 3.020(Month Low) to 3.237(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 3.020(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2.692(Average Objective).
January Natural Gas(NYM): The NGF6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 3.241(Prev Close), the market ended July at 3.152(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 3.131(Month Low) to 3.343(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NGF went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should penetrate 3.131(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 2.803(Average Objective).
December Wheat(CBOT): The WZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 622.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 504.75(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 501.50(Month Low) to 622.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, WZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should penetrate 501.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 458.99(Average Objective).
March Wheat(CBOT): The WH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 628.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 510.50(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 506.75(Month Low) to 628.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, WH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WH should penetrate 506.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 463.74(Average Objective).
March Wheat(KCBT): The KWH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 639.50(Prev Close), the market ended July at 525.75(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 524.25(Month Low) to 639.50(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in July than June in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, KWH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWH should penetrate 524.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 481.47(Average Objective).
October Live Cattle(CME): The LCV5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 150.700(Prev Close), the market ended July at 145.925(Month Close), that being 23%(Pct Range) off of 143.300(Month Low) to 154.485(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, LCV went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should penetrate 143.300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 136.566(Average Objective).
February Live Cattle(CME): The LCG6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 152.030(Prev Close), the market ended July at 147.450(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 146.235(Month Low) to 155.385(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, LCG went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCG should penetrate 146.235(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 139.807(Average Objective).
December Lean Hogs(CME): The LEZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 64.225(Prev Close), the market ended July at 60.450(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 57.050(Month Low) to 64.650(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LEZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEZ should penetrate 57.050(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 52.479(Average Objective).
February Lean Hogs(CME): The LEG6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 67.930(Prev Close), the market ended July at 66.675(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 62.750(Month Low) to 69.100(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, LEG went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEG should penetrate 62.750(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 58.509(Average Objective).
March Cocoa(ICE): The CCH6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 3250(Prev Close), the market ended July at 3226(Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 3168(Month Low) to 3368(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CCH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should penetrate 3168(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 2935(Average Objective).
December Cotton(ICE): The CTZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 67.91(Prev Close), the market ended July at 64.21(Month Close), that being 19%(Pct Range) off of 63.27(Month Low) to 68.11(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CTZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should penetrate 63.27(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 58.70(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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