MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary May 31, 2015

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

May

17841.00

18351.00

17733.00

18011.00

45%

87%

18351.00

19198.77

18011.00

#TRAN

Lower

May

8593.00

8844.00

8266.00

8300.00

85%

8266.00

7726.80

8300.00

#OEX

Higher

May

916.30

938.45

908.00

926.10

59%

91%

938.45

977.95

926.10

#NDX

Higher

May

4414.30

4551.50

4349.90

4508.30

79%

95%

4551.50

4779.30

4508.30

#RUT

Higher

May

1220.15

1261.00

1211.15

1246.55

71%

87%

1261.00

1326.02

1246.55

#MID

Higher

May

1500.20

1545.80

1492.25

1524.65

61%

91%

1545.80

1615.51

1524.65

#SSNI

Higher

May

19520

20655

19258

20563

93%

88%

20655

21577

20563

SPU5

Higher

May

2071.50

2123.90

2055.00

2098.50

63%

86%

2123.90

2208.51

2098.50

EDZ5

Higher

May

99.390

99.465

99.355

99.435

73%

94%

99.465

99.959

99.435

EUU5

Lower

May

112.80

114.85

108.37

109.97

25%

90%

108.37

105.71

109.97

DXU5

Higher

May

95.092

98.290

93.440

97.370

81%

89%

98.290

100.367

97.370

RBU5

Higher

May

198.03

204.10

186.77

199.27

72%

87%

204.10

219.72

199.27

RBV5

Higher

May

182.82

189.06

171.37

183.18

67%

87%

189.06

203.37

183.18

NGU5

Lower

May

2.828

3.163

2.666

2.675

92%

2.666

2.231

2.675

NGV5

Lower

May

2.863

3.180

2.706

2.714

92%

2.706

2.282

2.714

SQ5

Lower

May

971.00

983.00

910.00

919.25

13%

100%

910.00

832.22

919.25

SU5

Lower

May

958.75

969.00

900.00

907.75

11%

95%

900.00

831.82

907.75

SX5

Lower

May

952.25

961.75

898.25

905.75

12%

87%

898.25

830.65

905.75

SMQ5

Lower

May

314.60

316.10

295.80

298.40

13%

91%

295.80

273.12

298.40

SMU5

Lower

May

313.00

314.30

292.70

295.00

11%

91%

292.70

270.65

295.00

SMZ5

Lower

May

310.40

311.20

290.80

292.90

10%

90%

290.80

272.61

292.90

CU5

Lower

May

372.75

378.25

354.50

357.25

12%

88%

354.50

317.65

357.25

CZ5

Lower

May

383.50

388.75

365.25

368.00

12%

88%

365.25

330.25

368.00

WU5

Lower

May

483.75

536.75

469.25

482.25

19%

89%

469.25

425.80

482.25

WZ5

Lower

May

502.25

550.75

485.75

497.00

17%

88%

485.75

442.68

497.00

KWU5

Lower

May

509.25

574.50

495.50

507.75

16%

95%

495.50

451.18

507.75

KWZ5

Lower

May

528.50

590.00

515.00

524.75

13%

95%

515.00

471.57

524.75

OU5

Lower

May

250.25

261.00

232.25

241.75

33%

86%

232.25

203.73

241.75

OZ5

Lower

May

257.25

270.75

240.50

249.75

31%

91%

240.50

212.51

249.75

RRU5

Lower

May

10.56

10.70

9.53

9.78

22%

93%

9.53

8.65

9.78

LCQ5

Higher

May

148.100

153.400

146.900

151.280

67%

84%

153.400

164.677

151.280

LCV5

Higher

May

149.680

154.850

148.635

152.930

69%

85%

154.850

163.955

152.930

LCZ5

Higher

May

150.485

155.985

149.700

154.180

71%

86%

155.985

163.402

154.180

LEV5

Higher

May

71.885

74.450

71.885

72.635

29%

91%

74.450

80.441

72.635

CCU5

Higher

May

2929

3167

2848

3078

72%

88%

3167

3526

3078

CCZ5

Higher

May

2914

3151

2835

3066

73%

89%

3151

3539

3066

CTZ5

Lower

May

66.64

66.99

63.95

64.64

23%

87%

63.95

59.31

64.64

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 17841.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 18011.00(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 17733.00(Month Low) to 18351.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, the #DJ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 18351.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 19198.77(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 8593.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 8300.00(Month Close), that being 6%(Pct Range) off of 8266.00(Month Low) to 8844.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #TRAN went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should penetrate 8266.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 7726.80(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 916.30(Prev Close), the market ended May at 926.10(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 908.00(Month Low) to 938.45(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #OEX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 938.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 977.95(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 4414.30(Prev Close), the market ended May at 4508.30(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 4349.90(Month Low) to 4551.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #NDX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 4551.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 4779.30(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1220.15(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1246.55(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 1211.15(Month Low) to 1261.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, the #RUT went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 1261.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1326.02(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1500.20(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1524.65(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 1492.25(Month Low) to 1545.80(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #MID went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1545.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1615.51(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 19520(Prev Close), the market ended May at 20563(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 19258(Month Low) to 20655(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in May than April in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #SSNI went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 20655(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 21577(Average Objective).
September S & P 500(CME): The SPU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2071.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2098.50(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 2055.00(Month Low) to 2123.90(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SPU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 2123.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 2208.51(Average Objective).
December Eurodollars(CME): The EDZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 99.390(Prev Close), the market ended May at 99.435(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 99.355(Month Low) to 99.465(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, EDZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 99.465(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 99.959(Average Objective).
September EuroFX(CME): The EUU5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 112.80(Prev Close), the market ended May at 109.97(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 108.37(Month Low) to 114.85(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September EuroFX(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, EUU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUU should penetrate 108.37(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 105.71(Average Objective).
September US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 95.092(Prev Close), the market ended May at 97.370(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 93.440(Month Low) to 98.290(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, DXU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should exceed 98.290(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 100.367(Average Objective).
September RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 198.03(Prev Close), the market ended May at 199.27(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 186.77(Month Low) to 204.10(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in May than April in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, RBU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBU should exceed 204.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 219.72(Average Objective).
October RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBV5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 182.82(Prev Close), the market ended May at 183.18(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 171.37(Month Low) to 189.06(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in May than April in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, RBV went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBV should exceed 189.06(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 203.37(Average Objective).
September Natural Gas(NYM): The NGU5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2.828(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2.675(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 2.666(Month Low) to 3.163(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should penetrate 2.666(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 2.231(Average Objective).
October Natural Gas(NYM): The NGV5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2.863(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2.714(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 2.706(Month Low) to 3.180(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in May than April in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, NGV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGV should penetrate 2.706(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2.282(Average Objective).
August Soybeans(CBOT): The SQ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 971.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 919.25(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 910.00(Month Low) to 983.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SQ should penetrate 910.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 832.22(Average Objective).
September Soybeans(CBOT): The SU5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 958.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 907.75(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 900.00(Month Low) to 969.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SU should penetrate 900.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 831.82(Average Objective).
November Soybeans(CBOT): The SX5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 952.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 905.75(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 898.25(Month Low) to 961.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SX went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should penetrate 898.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 830.65(Average Objective).
August Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMQ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 314.60(Prev Close), the market ended May at 298.40(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 295.80(Month Low) to 316.10(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SMQ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMQ should penetrate 295.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 273.12(Average Objective).
September Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMU5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 313.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 295.00(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 292.70(Month Low) to 314.30(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SMU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMU should penetrate 292.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 270.65(Average Objective).
December Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 310.40(Prev Close), the market ended May at 292.90(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 290.80(Month Low) to 311.20(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SMZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMZ should penetrate 290.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 272.61(Average Objective).
September Corn(CBOT): The CU5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 372.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 357.25(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 354.50(Month Low) to 378.25(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, CU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should penetrate 354.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 317.65(Average Objective).
December Corn(CBOT): The CZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 383.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 368.00(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 365.25(Month Low) to 388.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, CZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 365.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 330.25(Average Objective).
September Wheat(CBOT): The WU5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 483.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 482.25(Month Close), that being 19%(Pct Range) off of 469.25(Month Low) to 536.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, WU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WU should penetrate 469.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 425.80(Average Objective).
December Wheat(CBOT): The WZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 502.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 497.00(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 485.75(Month Low) to 550.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, WZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should penetrate 485.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 442.68(Average Objective).
September Wheat(KCBT): The KWU5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 509.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 507.75(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 495.50(Month Low) to 574.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, KWU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should penetrate 495.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 451.18(Average Objective).
December Wheat(KCBT): The KWZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 528.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 524.75(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 515.00(Month Low) to 590.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, KWZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWZ should penetrate 515.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 471.57(Average Objective).
September Oats(CBOT): The OU5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 250.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 241.75(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 232.25(Month Low) to 261.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, OU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OU should penetrate 232.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 203.73(Average Objective).
December Oats(CBOT): The OZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 257.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 249.75(Month Close), that being 31%(Pct Range) off of 240.50(Month Low) to 270.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, OZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OZ should penetrate 240.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 212.51(Average Objective).
September Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRU5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 10.56(Prev Close), the market ended May at 9.78(Month Close), that being 22%(Pct Range) off of 9.53(Month Low) to 10.70(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, RRU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should penetrate 9.53(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 8.65(Average Objective).
August Live Cattle(CME): The LCQ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 148.100(Prev Close), the market ended May at 151.280(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 146.900(Month Low) to 153.400(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LCQ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should exceed 153.400(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 164.677(Average Objective).
October Live Cattle(CME): The LCV5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 149.680(Prev Close), the market ended May at 152.930(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 148.635(Month Low) to 154.850(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LCV went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 154.850(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 163.955(Average Objective).
December Live Cattle(CME): The LCZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 150.485(Prev Close), the market ended May at 154.180(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 149.700(Month Low) to 155.985(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, LCZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should exceed 155.985(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 163.402(Average Objective).
October Lean Hogs(CME): The LEV5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 71.885(Prev Close), the market ended May at 72.635(Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 71.885(Month Low) to 74.450(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, LEV went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEV should exceed 74.450(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 80.441(Average Objective).
September Cocoa(ICE): The CCU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2929(Prev Close), the market ended May at 3078(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 2848(Month Low) to 3167(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CCU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCU should exceed 3167(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 3526(Average Objective).
December Cocoa(ICE): The CCZ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2914(Prev Close), the market ended May at 3066(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 2835(Month Low) to 3151(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CCZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should exceed 3151(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 3539(Average Objective).
December Cotton(ICE): The CTZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 66.64(Prev Close), the market ended May at 64.64(Month Close), that being 23%(Pct Range) off of 63.95(Month Low) to 66.99(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CTZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should penetrate 63.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 59.31(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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