MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Apr 30, 2015

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Apr

17776.00

18176.00

17585.00

17841.00

43%

89%

18176.00

18947.97

17841.00

#OEX

Higher

Apr

902.00

932.65

893.25

916.30

59%

92%

932.65

976.09

916.30

#NDX

Higher

Apr

4333.70

4562.30

4283.90

4414.30

47%

94%

4562.30

4914.30

4414.30

#SSNI

Higher

Apr

19207

20252

18928

19520

45%

95%

20252

21283

19520

#SP

Higher

Apr

2067.90

2125.90

2048.40

2085.50

48%

87%

2125.90

2224.71

2085.50

SPU5

Higher

Apr

2053.30

2112.00

2034.00

2071.50

48%

95%

2112.00

2204.30

2071.50

USU5

Lower

Apr

162~130

165~000

156~250

158~010

15%

89%

156~250

150~212

158~010

TYU5

Lower

Apr

128~130

129~165

127~090

127~280

27%

87%

127~090

123~195

127~280

EDU5

Higher

Apr

99.520

99.590

99.510

99.565

69%

84%

99.590

100.077

99.565

CDU5

Higher

Apr

78.84

83.53

78.57

82.58

81%

84%

83.53

85.20

82.58

ADU5

Higher

Apr

75.47

80.12

74.70

78.58

72%

85%

80.12

83.08

78.58

CLQ5

Higher

Apr

51.83

61.48

51.30

61.31

98%

89%

61.48

66.36

61.31

CLU5

Higher

Apr

52.69

61.93

52.13

61.78

98%

85%

61.93

66.56

61.78

CLV5

Higher

Apr

53.45

62.34

52.98

62.21

99%

85%

62.34

66.67

62.21

ITCOQ5

Higher

Apr

57.96

68.10

56.87

67.99

99%

93%

68.10

72.67

67.99

ITCOU5

Higher

Apr

58.78

68.59

57.70

68.46

99%

94%

68.59

74.27

68.46

ITCOV5

Higher

Apr

59.53

69.01

58.57

68.88

99%

94%

69.01

74.68

68.88

RBU5

Higher

Apr

170.67

198.23

167.78

198.03

99%

86%

198.23

214.81

198.03

RBQ5

Higher

Apr

172.89

201.08

170.09

200.70

99%

85%

201.08

219.95

200.70

RBU5

Higher

Apr

170.67

198.23

167.78

198.03

99%

86%

198.23

214.81

198.03

NGQ5

Higher

Apr

2.782

2.849

2.569

2.820

90%

93%

2.849

3.192

2.820

NGU5

Higher

Apr

2.786

2.852

2.589

2.828

91%

94%

2.852

3.203

2.828

NGV5

Higher

Apr

2.814

2.883

2.638

2.863

92%

93%

2.883

3.184

2.863

CBQ5

Higher

Apr

57.96

68.10

56.87

67.99

99%

93%

68.10

72.67

67.99

CBU5

Higher

Apr

58.78

68.59

57.70

68.46

99%

94%

68.59

74.27

68.46

CBV5

Higher

Apr

59.53

69.01

58.57

68.88

99%

94%

69.01

74.68

68.88

SMU5

Lower

Apr

322.00

328.00

306.50

313.00

30%

85%

306.50

286.84

313.00

CN5

Lower

Apr

384.25

397.75

362.50

366.25

11%

86%

362.50

330.35

366.25

CZ5

Lower

Apr

400.75

414.00

380.75

383.50

96%

380.75

349.47

383.50

KWN5

Lower

Apr

563.75

593.00

489.50

499.00

94%

489.50

460.23

499.00

KWU5

Lower

Apr

573.00

602.50

500.25

509.25

85%

500.25

469.73

509.25

ON5

Lower

Apr

266.75

275.50

223.00

244.25

40%

88%

223.00

199.46

244.25

RRN5

Lower

Apr

11.11

11.14

10.01

10.30

25%

91%

10.01

9.29

10.30

RRU5

Lower

Apr

11.28

11.29

10.26

10.56

29%

92%

10.26

9.57

10.56

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 17776.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 17841.00(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 17585.00(Month Low) to 18176.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in April than March in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #DJ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 18176.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 18947.97(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 902.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 916.30(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 893.25(Month Low) to 932.65(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in April than March in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #OEX went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 932.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 976.09(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 4333.70(Prev Close), the market ended April at 4414.30(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 4283.90(Month Low) to 4562.30(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #NDX went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 4562.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 4914.30(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 19207(Prev Close), the market ended April at 19520(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 18928(Month Low) to 20252(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #SSNI went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 20252(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 21283(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2067.90(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2085.50(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 2048.40(Month Low) to 2125.90(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in April than March in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, the #SP went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2125.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 2224.71(Average Objective).
September S & P 500(CME): The SPU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2053.30(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2071.50(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 2034.00(Month Low) to 2112.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SPU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 2112.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 2204.30(Average Objective).
September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USU5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 162~130(Prev Close), the market ended April at 158~010(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 156~250(Month Low) to 165~000(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, USU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should penetrate 156~250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 150~212(Average Objective).
September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYU5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 128~130(Prev Close), the market ended April at 127~280(Month Close), that being 27%(Pct Range) off of 127~090(Month Low) to 129~165(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, TYU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should penetrate 127~090(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 123~195(Average Objective).
September Eurodollars(CME): The EDU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 99.520(Prev Close), the market ended April at 99.565(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 99.510(Month Low) to 99.590(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, EDU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should exceed 99.590(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 100.077(Average Objective).
September Canadian Dollar(CME): The CDU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 78.84(Prev Close), the market ended April at 82.58(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 78.57(Month Low) to 83.53(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CDU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDU should exceed 83.53(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 85.20(Average Objective).
September Australian Dollar(CME): The ADU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 75.47(Prev Close), the market ended April at 78.58(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 74.70(Month Low) to 80.12(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, ADU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADU should exceed 80.12(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 83.08(Average Objective).
August Crude Oil(NYM): The CLQ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 51.83(Prev Close), the market ended April at 61.31(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 51.30(Month Low) to 61.48(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CLQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLQ should exceed 61.48(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 66.36(Average Objective).
September Crude Oil(NYM): The CLU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 52.69(Prev Close), the market ended April at 61.78(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 52.13(Month Low) to 61.93(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CLU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLU should exceed 61.93(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 66.56(Average Objective).
October Crude Oil(NYM): The CLV5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 53.45(Prev Close), the market ended April at 62.21(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 52.98(Month Low) to 62.34(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CLV went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLV should exceed 62.34(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 66.67(Average Objective).
August Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCOQ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 57.96(Prev Close), the market ended April at 67.99(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 56.87(Month Low) to 68.10(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, ITCOQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOQ should exceed 68.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 72.67(Average Objective).
September Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCOU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 58.78(Prev Close), the market ended April at 68.46(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 57.70(Month Low) to 68.59(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, ITCOU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOU should exceed 68.59(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 74.27(Average Objective).
October Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCOV5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 59.53(Prev Close), the market ended April at 68.88(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 58.57(Month Low) to 69.01(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, ITCOV went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOV should exceed 69.01(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 74.68(Average Objective).
September RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 170.67(Prev Close), the market ended April at 198.03(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 167.78(Month Low) to 198.23(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, RBU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBU should exceed 198.23(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 214.81(Average Objective).
August RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBQ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 172.89(Prev Close), the market ended April at 200.70(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 170.09(Month Low) to 201.08(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, RBQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBQ should exceed 201.08(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 219.95(Average Objective).
September RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 170.67(Prev Close), the market ended April at 198.03(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 167.78(Month Low) to 198.23(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, RBU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBU should exceed 198.23(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 214.81(Average Objective).
August Natural Gas(NYM): The NGQ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2.782(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2.820(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 2.569(Month Low) to 2.849(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, NGQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 2.849(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 3.192(Average Objective).
September Natural Gas(NYM): The NGU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2.786(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2.828(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 2.589(Month Low) to 2.852(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NGU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should exceed 2.852(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 3.203(Average Objective).
October Natural Gas(NYM): The NGV5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2.814(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2.863(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 2.638(Month Low) to 2.883(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, NGV went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGV should exceed 2.883(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 3.184(Average Objective).
August Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBQ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 57.96(Prev Close), the market ended April at 67.99(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 56.87(Month Low) to 68.10(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CBQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBQ should exceed 68.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 72.67(Average Objective).
September Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBU5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 58.78(Prev Close), the market ended April at 68.46(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 57.70(Month Low) to 68.59(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CBU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBU should exceed 68.59(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 74.27(Average Objective).
October Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBV5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 59.53(Prev Close), the market ended April at 68.88(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 58.57(Month Low) to 69.01(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CBV went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBV should exceed 69.01(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 74.68(Average Objective).
September Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMU5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 322.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 313.00(Month Close), that being 30%(Pct Range) off of 306.50(Month Low) to 328.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SMU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMU should penetrate 306.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 286.84(Average Objective).
July Corn(CBOT): The CN5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 384.25(Prev Close), the market ended April at 366.25(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 362.50(Month Low) to 397.75(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, CN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should penetrate 362.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 330.35(Average Objective).
December Corn(CBOT): The CZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 400.75(Prev Close), the market ended April at 383.50(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 380.75(Month Low) to 414.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CZ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 380.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 349.47(Average Objective).
July Wheat(KCBT): The KWN5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 563.75(Prev Close), the market ended April at 499.00(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 489.50(Month Low) to 593.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, KWN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWN should penetrate 489.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 460.23(Average Objective).
September Wheat(KCBT): The KWU5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 573.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 509.25(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 500.25(Month Low) to 602.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, KWU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should penetrate 500.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 469.73(Average Objective).
July Oats(CBOT): The ON5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 266.75(Prev Close), the market ended April at 244.25(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 223.00(Month Low) to 275.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, ON went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ON should penetrate 223.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 199.46(Average Objective).
July Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRN5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 11.11(Prev Close), the market ended April at 10.30(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 10.01(Month Low) to 11.14(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, RRN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRN should penetrate 10.01(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 9.29(Average Objective).
September Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRU5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 11.28(Prev Close), the market ended April at 10.56(Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 10.26(Month Low) to 11.29(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RRU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should penetrate 10.26(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 9.57(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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