MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Nov 28, 2014

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Nov

17391.00

17895.00

17278.00

17828.00

89%

93%

17895.00

18884.39

17828.00

#TRAN

Higher

Nov

8756.00

9310.00

8702.00

9198.00

82%

91%

9310.00

10115.12

9198.00

#OEX

Higher

Nov

895.80

919.50

888.45

916.25

90%

88%

919.50

967.67

916.25

#NDX

Higher

Nov

4158.20

4347.10

4126.70

4337.80

96%

100%

4347.10

4738.01

4337.80

#MID

Higher

Nov

1418.70

1458.80

1409.70

1442.65

67%

95%

1458.80

1547.49

1442.65

#VLE

Higher

Nov

4571.50

4699.10

4525.00

4640.20

66%

100%

4699.10

4978.96

4640.20

#SP

Higher

Nov

2018.05

2075.75

2001.00

2067.55

89%

93%

2075.75

2188.14

2067.55

SPH5

Higher

Nov

2003.70

2065.10

1988.00

2059.20

92%

100%

2065.10

2168.77

2059.20

TYH5

Higher

Nov

125~205

127~055

125~045

127~015

94%

127~055

130~065

127~015

EDM5

Higher

Nov

99.610

99.645

99.570

99.640

93%

88%

99.645

100.324

99.640

JYH5

Lower

Nov

89.19

88.93

84.18

84.33

90%

84.18

81.08

84.33

GCJ5

Higher

Nov

1172.9

1208.0

1132.1

1176.0

58%

85%

1208.0

1270.8

1176.0

SIH5

Lower

Nov

1616.3

1675.5

1508.5

1555.6

28%

85%

1508.5

1386.4

1555.6

PAH5

Higher

Nov

792.30

816.10

748.65

813.30

96%

89%

816.10

961.03

813.30

HOH5

Lower

Nov

249.62

251.14

212.42

213.28

100%

212.42

189.47

213.28

HOJ5

Lower

Nov

248.71

250.10

211.41

212.18

94%

211.41

186.19

212.18

RBJ5

Lower

Nov

237.73

238.58

203.40

204.16

85%

203.40

181.27

204.16

RBK5

Lower

Nov

238.45

239.48

203.98

204.86

85%

203.98

182.90

204.86

LCG5

Higher

Nov

166.100

172.750

165.550

169.235

51%

89%

172.750

182.143

169.235

LCJ5

Higher

Nov

165.600

171.100

164.780

169.000

67%

87%

171.100

180.283

169.000

LCM5

Higher

Nov

155.700

162.930

155.325

161.300

79%

87%

162.930

169.980

161.300

FCF5

Higher

Nov

228.485

238.350

228.050

231.080

29%

86%

238.350

248.484

231.080

FCH5

Higher

Nov

225.750

236.550

225.300

230.200

44%

91%

236.550

248.359

230.200

FCJ5

Higher

Nov

226.000

236.550

225.635

230.780

47%

91%

236.550

247.264

230.780

FCK5

Higher

Nov

225.580

236.330

225.450

230.850

50%

90%

236.330

246.858

230.850

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 17391.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 17828.00(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 17278.00(Month Low) to 17895.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in November than October in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, the #DJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 17895.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 18884.39(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 8756.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 9198.00(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 8702.00(Month Low) to 9310.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in November than October in 32(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 32, the #TRAN went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 29 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 9310.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 29 years) a potential move toward 10115.12(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 895.80(Prev Close), the market ended November at 916.25(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 888.45(Month Low) to 919.50(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in November than October in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #OEX went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 919.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 967.67(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 4158.20(Prev Close), the market ended November at 4337.80(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 4126.70(Month Low) to 4347.10(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in November than October in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #NDX went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 4347.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 4738.01(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1418.70(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1442.65(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 1409.70(Month Low) to 1458.80(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in November than October in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #MID went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1458.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1547.49(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 4571.50(Prev Close), the market ended November at 4640.20(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 4525.00(Month Low) to 4699.10(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in November than October in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #VLE went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 4699.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 4978.96(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 2018.05(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2067.55(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 2001.00(Month Low) to 2075.75(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in November than October in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, the #SP went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2075.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 2188.14(Average Objective).
March S & P 500(CME): The SPH5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 2003.70(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2059.20(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 1988.00(Month Low) to 2065.10(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SPH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPH should exceed 2065.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 2168.77(Average Objective).
March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYH5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 125~205(Prev Close), the market ended November at 127~015(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 125~045(Month Low) to 127~055(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in November than October in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, TYH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 127~055(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 130~065(Average Objective).
June Eurodollars(CME): The EDM5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 99.610(Prev Close), the market ended November at 99.640(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 99.570(Month Low) to 99.645(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, EDM went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 99.645(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 100.324(Average Objective).
March Japanese Yen(CME): The JYH5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 89.19(Prev Close), the market ended November at 84.33(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 84.18(Month Low) to 88.93(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in November than October in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, JYH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 84.18(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 81.08(Average Objective).
April Gold(CMX): The GCJ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1172.9(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1176.0(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 1132.1(Month Low) to 1208.0(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Gold(CMX) also closed higher in November than October in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, GCJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCJ should exceed 1208.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1270.8(Average Objective).
March Silver(CMX): The SIH5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1616.3(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1555.6(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 1508.5(Month Low) to 1675.5(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Silver(CMX) also closed lower in November than October in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SIH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIH should penetrate 1508.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1386.4(Average Objective).
March Palladium(NYMEX): The PAH5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 792.30(Prev Close), the market ended November at 813.30(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 748.65(Month Low) to 816.10(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in November than October in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, PAH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAH should exceed 816.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 961.03(Average Objective).
March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOH5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 249.62(Prev Close), the market ended November at 213.28(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 212.42(Month Low) to 251.14(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, HOH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should penetrate 212.42(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 189.47(Average Objective).
April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOJ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 248.71(Prev Close), the market ended November at 212.18(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 211.41(Month Low) to 250.10(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, HOJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should penetrate 211.41(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 186.19(Average Objective).
April RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBJ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 237.73(Prev Close), the market ended November at 204.16(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 203.40(Month Low) to 238.58(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RBJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBJ should penetrate 203.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 181.27(Average Objective).
May RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBK5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 238.45(Prev Close), the market ended November at 204.86(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 203.98(Month Low) to 239.48(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RBK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBK should penetrate 203.98(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 182.90(Average Objective).
February Live Cattle(CME): The LCG5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 166.100(Prev Close), the market ended November at 169.235(Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 165.550(Month Low) to 172.750(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, LCG went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCG should exceed 172.750(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 182.143(Average Objective).
April Live Cattle(CME): The LCJ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 165.600(Prev Close), the market ended November at 169.000(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 164.780(Month Low) to 171.100(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, LCJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCJ should exceed 171.100(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 180.283(Average Objective).
June Live Cattle(CME): The LCM5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 155.700(Prev Close), the market ended November at 161.300(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 155.325(Month Low) to 162.930(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, LCM went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCM should exceed 162.930(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 169.980(Average Objective).
January Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCF5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 228.485(Prev Close), the market ended November at 231.080(Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 228.050(Month Low) to 238.350(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, FCF went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCF should exceed 238.350(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 248.484(Average Objective).
March Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCH5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 225.750(Prev Close), the market ended November at 230.200(Month Close), that being 44%(Pct Range) off of 225.300(Month Low) to 236.550(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, FCH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCH should exceed 236.550(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 248.359(Average Objective).
April Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCJ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 226.000(Prev Close), the market ended November at 230.780(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 225.635(Month Low) to 236.550(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, FCJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCJ should exceed 236.550(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 247.264(Average Objective).
May Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCK5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 225.580(Prev Close), the market ended November at 230.850(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 225.450(Month Low) to 236.330(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, FCK went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCK should exceed 236.330(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 246.858(Average Objective).

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