MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Sep 30, 2014

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Sep

14810.00

15710.00

14777.00

15130.00

38%

88%

15710.00

16525.65

16577.00

#TRAN

Higher

Sep

6250.00

6755.00

6240.00

6582.00

66%

100%

6755.00

7334.14

7401.00

#UTIL

Higher

Sep

477.87

497.98

467.93

482.29

48%

92%

497.98

523.08

490.57

#OEX

Higher

Sep

730.90

772.00

730.80

748.10

42%

93%

772.00

814.77

823.80

#NDX

Higher

Sep

3073.80

3248.50

3077.10

3218.20

82%

94%

3248.50

3520.64

3592.00

#VLE

Higher

Sep

3800.50

4063.40

3798.50

4011.30

80%

88%

4063.40

4273.12

4379.50

#SSNI

Higher

Sep

13389

14818

13408

14456

74%

100%

14818

15643

16291

#SP

Higher

Sep

1632.95

1729.85

1633.40

1681.55

50%

90%

1729.85

1835.39

1848.35

EDZ4

Higher

Sep

99.745

99.765

99.735

99.755

67%

91%

99.765

100.125

99.755

EDH5

Higher

Sep

99.645

99.675

99.610

99.665

85%

96%

99.675

100.113

99.665

EUZ4

Lower

Sep

131.43

131.70

125.78

126.35

10%

100%

125.78

121.44

126.35

JYZ4

Lower

Sep

96.13

91.07

91.20

94%

91.07

87.89

91.20

CDZ4

Lower

Sep

91.75

92.18

88.97

89.08

100%

88.97

87.55

89.08

DXZ4

Higher

Sep

82.890

86.335

82.820

86.048

92%

100%

86.335

89.199

86.048

HGZ4

Lower

Sep

316.05

321.20

300.60

300.75

84%

300.60

275.80

300.75

HOF5

Lower

Sep

287.75

288.56

265.24

266.36

86%

265.24

245.27

266.36

NGF5

Lower

Sep

4.266

4.306

3.990

4.252

83%

90%

3.990

3.438

4.252

NGG5

Lower

Sep

4.248

4.280

3.987

4.236

85%

91%

3.987

3.541

4.236

NGG5

Lower

Sep

4.248

4.280

3.987

4.236

85%

91%

3.987

3.541

4.236

NGH5

Lower

Sep

4.170

4.202

3.924

4.155

83%

90%

3.924

3.520

4.155

SF5

Lower

Sep

1032.50

1045.50

914.00

921.25

89%

914.00

847.59

921.25

SH5

Lower

Sep

1040.50

1052.75

922.25

929.75

92%

922.25

857.72

929.75

BOF5

Higher

Sep

32.40

34.05

31.80

32.65

38%

84%

34.05

37.69

32.65

BOH5

Higher

Sep

32.69

34.36

32.14

32.92

35%

84%

34.36

37.90

32.92

SMZ4

Lower

Sep

350.70

362.00

297.60

298.90

88%

297.60

277.81

298.90

SMF5

Lower

Sep

347.60

357.30

296.10

297.40

89%

296.10

276.96

297.40

SMH5

Lower

Sep

345.40

353.20

294.30

295.70

85%

294.30

274.44

295.70

OZ4

Lower

Sep

342.25

357.75

326.00

335.50

30%

89%

326.00

299.48

335.50

RRX4

Higher

Sep

12.66

12.91

12.20

12.74

77%

85%

12.91

14.17

12.74

RRF5

Higher

Sep

12.86

13.08

12.40

12.90

73%

85%

13.08

14.35

12.90

LCZ4

Higher

Sep

153.950

165.080

154.180

163.485

85%

88%

165.080

172.414

163.485

LCG5

Higher

Sep

154.600

164.885

155.000

163.985

91%

93%

164.885

171.294

163.985

FCF5

Higher

Sep

210.200

229.900

210.500

228.780

94%

90%

229.900

239.403

228.780

LEZ4

Higher

Sep

92.000

99.000

90.900

94.530

45%

90%

99.000

106.801

94.530

CTH5

Lower

Sep

67.01

67.79

60.28

60.45

88%

60.28

56.17

60.45

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 14810.00(Prev Close), the market ended September at 15130.00(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 14777.00(Month Low) to 15710.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in September than August in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #DJ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 15710.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 16525.65(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 6250.00(Prev Close), the market ended September at 6582.00(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 6240.00(Month Low) to 6755.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in September than August in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #TRAN went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 6755.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 7334.14(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 477.87(Prev Close), the market ended September at 482.29(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 467.93(Month Low) to 497.98(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in September than August in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #UTIL went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 497.98(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 523.08(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 730.90(Prev Close), the market ended September at 748.10(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 730.80(Month Low) to 772.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in September than August in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #OEX went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 772.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 814.77(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 3073.80(Prev Close), the market ended September at 3218.20(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 3077.10(Month Low) to 3248.50(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in September than August in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #NDX went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 3248.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 3520.64(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 3800.50(Prev Close), the market ended September at 4011.30(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 3798.50(Month Low) to 4063.40(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in September than August in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #VLE went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 4063.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 4273.12(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 13389(Prev Close), the market ended September at 14456(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 13408(Month Low) to 14818(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in September than August in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, the #SSNI went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 14818(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 15643(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 1632.95(Prev Close), the market ended September at 1681.55(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 1633.40(Month Low) to 1729.85(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in September than August in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #SP went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1729.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1835.39(Average Objective).
December Eurodollars(CME): The EDZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 99.745(Prev Close), the market ended September at 99.755(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 99.735(Month Low) to 99.765(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, EDZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 99.765(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 100.125(Average Objective).
March Eurodollars(CME): The EDH5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 99.645(Prev Close), the market ended September at 99.665(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 99.610(Month Low) to 99.675(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, EDH went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 99.675(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 100.113(Average Objective).
December EuroFX(CME): The EUZ4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 131.43(Prev Close), the market ended September at 126.35(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 125.78(Month Low) to 131.70(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 15 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December EuroFX(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 5(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 5, EUZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 5 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUZ should penetrate 125.78(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 5 years) a potential move toward 121.44(Average Objective).
December Japanese Yen(CME): The JYZ4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 96.13(Prev Close), the market ended September at 91.20(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 91.07(Month Low) to 96.13(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, JYZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYZ should penetrate 91.07(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 87.89(Average Objective).
December Canadian Dollar(CME): The CDZ4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 91.75(Prev Close), the market ended September at 89.08(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 88.97(Month Low) to 92.18(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, CDZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDZ should penetrate 88.97(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 87.55(Average Objective).
December US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 82.890(Prev Close), the market ended September at 86.048(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 82.820(Month Low) to 86.335(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in September than August in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, DXZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should exceed 86.335(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 89.199(Average Objective).
December Copper(CMX): The HGZ4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 316.05(Prev Close), the market ended September at 300.75(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 300.60(Month Low) to 321.20(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Copper(CMX) also closed lower in September than August in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, HGZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGZ should penetrate 300.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 275.80(Average Objective).
January NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOF5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 287.75(Prev Close), the market ended September at 266.36(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 265.24(Month Low) to 288.56(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in September than August in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, HOF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOF should penetrate 265.24(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 245.27(Average Objective).
January Natural Gas(NYM): The NGF5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 4.266(Prev Close), the market ended September at 4.252(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 3.990(Month Low) to 4.306(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in September than August in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, NGF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should penetrate 3.990(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 3.438(Average Objective).
February Natural Gas(NYM): The NGG5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 4.248(Prev Close), the market ended September at 4.236(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 3.987(Month Low) to 4.280(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in September than August in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, NGG went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGG should penetrate 3.987(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 3.541(Average Objective).
February Natural Gas(NYM): The NGG5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 4.248(Prev Close), the market ended September at 4.236(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 3.987(Month Low) to 4.280(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in September than August in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, NGG went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGG should penetrate 3.987(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 3.541(Average Objective).
March Natural Gas(NYM): The NGH5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 4.170(Prev Close), the market ended September at 4.155(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 3.924(Month Low) to 4.202(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in September than August in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, NGH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGH should penetrate 3.924(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 3.520(Average Objective).
January Soybeans(CBOT): The SF5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 1032.50(Prev Close), the market ended September at 921.25(Month Close), that being 6%(Pct Range) off of 914.00(Month Low) to 1045.50(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SF should penetrate 914.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 847.59(Average Objective).
March Soybeans(CBOT): The SH5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 1040.50(Prev Close), the market ended September at 929.75(Month Close), that being 6%(Pct Range) off of 922.25(Month Low) to 1052.75(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SH should penetrate 922.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 857.72(Average Objective).
January Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOF5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 32.40(Prev Close), the market ended September at 32.65(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 31.80(Month Low) to 34.05(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in September than August in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, BOF went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOF should exceed 34.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 37.69(Average Objective).
March Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOH5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 32.69(Prev Close), the market ended September at 32.92(Month Close), that being 35%(Pct Range) off of 32.14(Month Low) to 34.36(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in September than August in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, BOH went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOH should exceed 34.36(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 37.90(Average Objective).
December Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMZ4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 350.70(Prev Close), the market ended September at 298.90(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 297.60(Month Low) to 362.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SMZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMZ should penetrate 297.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 277.81(Average Objective).
January Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMF5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 347.60(Prev Close), the market ended September at 297.40(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 296.10(Month Low) to 357.30(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SMF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMF should penetrate 296.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 276.96(Average Objective).
March Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMH5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 345.40(Prev Close), the market ended September at 295.70(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 294.30(Month Low) to 353.20(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SMH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMH should penetrate 294.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 274.44(Average Objective).
December Oats(CBOT): The OZ4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 342.25(Prev Close), the market ended September at 335.50(Month Close), that being 30%(Pct Range) off of 326.00(Month Low) to 357.75(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, OZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OZ should penetrate 326.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 299.48(Average Objective).
November Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRX4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 12.66(Prev Close), the market ended September at 12.74(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 12.20(Month Low) to 12.91(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed higher in September than August in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RRX went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRX should exceed 12.91(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 14.17(Average Objective).
January Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRF5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 12.86(Prev Close), the market ended September at 12.90(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 12.40(Month Low) to 13.08(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed higher in September than August in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RRF went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRF should exceed 13.08(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 14.35(Average Objective).
December Live Cattle(CME): The LCZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 153.950(Prev Close), the market ended September at 163.485(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 154.180(Month Low) to 165.080(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, LCZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should exceed 165.080(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 172.414(Average Objective).
February Live Cattle(CME): The LCG5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 154.600(Prev Close), the market ended September at 163.985(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 155.000(Month Low) to 164.885(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, LCG went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCG should exceed 164.885(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 171.294(Average Objective).
January Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCF5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 210.200(Prev Close), the market ended September at 228.780(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 210.500(Month Low) to 229.900(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, FCF went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCF should exceed 229.900(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 239.403(Average Objective).
December Lean Hogs(CME): The LEZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 92.000(Prev Close), the market ended September at 94.530(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 90.900(Month Low) to 99.000(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, LEZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEZ should exceed 99.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 106.801(Average Objective).
March Cotton(ICE): The CTH5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 67.01(Prev Close), the market ended September at 60.45(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 60.28(Month Low) to 67.79(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in September than August in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, CTH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTH should penetrate 60.28(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 56.17(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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