MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Jul 31, 2014

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Jul

14910.00

15634.00

14859.00

15500.00

83%

84%

15634.00

16294.55

15546.00

#UTIL

Higher

Jul

485.90

510.43

472.38

503.97

83%

88%

530.63

499.87

#OEX

Higher

Jul

720.60

762.05

720.50

755.25

84%

89%

762.05

793.58

783.40

#NDX

Higher

Jul

2909.60

3110.00

2913.50

3090.20

90%

88%

3110.00

3319.34

3377.70

#RUT

Higher

Jul

977.50

1056.85

977.45

1045.25

85%

94%

1056.85

1116.74

1100.15

#MID

Higher

Jul

1160.80

1243.05

1163.35

1231.90

86%

100%

1243.05

1304.40

1289.20

#VLE

Higher

Jul

3680.90

3951.40

3680.80

3917.10

87%

94%

3951.40

4128.70

4151.00

#SP

Higher

Jul

1606.30

1698.80

1604.55

1685.75

86%

95%

1698.80

1776.28

1756.55

USZ4

Higher

Jul

135~240

137~190

133~080

135~310

63%

95%

137~190

143~292

135~310

ADZ4

Lower

Jul

93.17

93.94

91.95

92.07

85%

91.95

88.09

92.07

NGX4

Lower

Jul

4.464

4.487

3.786

3.925

20%

85%

3.786

3.252

3.925

NGZ4

Lower

Jul

4.532

4.555

3.877

4.005

19%

92%

3.877

3.445

4.005

NGF5

Lower

Jul

4.587

4.611

3.950

4.075

19%

92%

3.950

3.526

4.075

WZ4

Lower

Jul

598.25

605.00

542.25

550.25

13%

90%

542.25

498.12

550.25

WH5

Lower

Jul

619.25

629.25

566.50

572.25

85%

566.50

521.04

572.25

KWH5

Lower

Jul

711.25

710.25

634.75

644.25

13%

88%

634.75

584.72

644.25

LCV4

Higher

Jul

153.135

160.750

149.450

157.325

70%

89%

160.750

167.889

157.325

FCX4

Higher

Jul

214.030

223.530

208.030

219.985

77%

85%

223.530

233.314

219.985

LEZ4

Lower

Jul

98.600

105.500

93.250

94.180

84%

93.250

86.312

94.180

KCZ4

Higher

Jul

178.70

200.00

163.10

198.75

97%

86%

200.00

217.69

198.75

CTV4

Lower

Jul

73.38

73.28

61.90

62.09

88%

61.90

57.24

62.09

CTZ4

Lower

Jul

73.51

73.70

62.32

62.87

87%

62.32

57.89

62.87

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 14910.00(Prev Close), the market ended July at 15500.00(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 14859.00(Month Low) to 15634.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in July than June in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #DJ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 15634.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 16294.55(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 485.90(Prev Close), the market ended July at 503.97(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 472.38(Month Low) to 510.43(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in July than June in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #UTIL went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 510.43(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 530.63(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 720.60(Prev Close), the market ended July at 755.25(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 720.50(Month Low) to 762.05(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in July than June in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #OEX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 762.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 793.58(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2909.60(Prev Close), the market ended July at 3090.20(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 2913.50(Month Low) to 3110.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #NDX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 3110.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 3319.34(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 977.50(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1045.25(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 977.45(Month Low) to 1056.85(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #RUT went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 1056.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1116.74(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1160.80(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1231.90(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 1163.35(Month Low) to 1243.05(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, the #MID went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1243.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 1304.40(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 3680.90(Prev Close), the market ended July at 3917.10(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 3680.80(Month Low) to 3951.40(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #VLE went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 3951.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 4128.70(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1606.30(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1685.75(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 1604.55(Month Low) to 1698.80(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #SP went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1698.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1776.28(Average Objective).
December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 135~240(Prev Close), the market ended July at 135~310(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 133~080(Month Low) to 137~190(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, USZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 137~190(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 143~292(Average Objective).
December Australian Dollar(CME): The ADZ4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 93.17(Prev Close), the market ended July at 92.07(Month Close), that being 6%(Pct Range) off of 91.95(Month Low) to 93.94(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Australian Dollar(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, ADZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADZ should penetrate 91.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 88.09(Average Objective).
November Natural Gas(NYM): The NGX4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 4.464(Prev Close), the market ended July at 3.925(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 3.786(Month Low) to 4.487(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGX went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGX should penetrate 3.786(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 3.252(Average Objective).
December Natural Gas(NYM): The NGZ4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 4.532(Prev Close), the market ended July at 4.005(Month Close), that being 19%(Pct Range) off of 3.877(Month Low) to 4.555(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in July than June in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, NGZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 3.877(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 3.445(Average Objective).
January Natural Gas(NYM): The NGF5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 4.587(Prev Close), the market ended July at 4.075(Month Close), that being 19%(Pct Range) off of 3.950(Month Low) to 4.611(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGF went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should penetrate 3.950(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 3.526(Average Objective).
December Wheat(CBOT): The WZ4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 598.25(Prev Close), the market ended July at 550.25(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 542.25(Month Low) to 605.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, WZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should penetrate 542.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 498.12(Average Objective).
March Wheat(CBOT): The WH5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 619.25(Prev Close), the market ended July at 572.25(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 566.50(Month Low) to 629.25(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, WH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WH should penetrate 566.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 521.04(Average Objective).
March Wheat(KCBT): The KWH5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 711.25(Prev Close), the market ended July at 644.25(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 634.75(Month Low) to 710.25(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, KWH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWH should penetrate 634.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 584.72(Average Objective).
October Live Cattle(CME): The LCV4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 153.135(Prev Close), the market ended July at 157.325(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 149.450(Month Low) to 160.750(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, LCV went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 160.750(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 167.889(Average Objective).
November Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCX4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 214.030(Prev Close), the market ended July at 219.985(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 208.030(Month Low) to 223.530(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, FCX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCX should exceed 223.530(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 233.314(Average Objective).
December Lean Hogs(CME): The LEZ4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 98.600(Prev Close), the market ended July at 94.180(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 93.250(Month Low) to 105.500(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LEZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEZ should penetrate 93.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 86.312(Average Objective).
December Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 178.70(Prev Close), the market ended July at 198.75(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 163.10(Month Low) to 200.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed higher in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, KCZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCZ should exceed 200.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 217.69(Average Objective).
October Cotton(ICE): The CTV4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 73.38(Prev Close), the market ended July at 62.09(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 61.90(Month Low) to 73.28(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, CTV went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTV should penetrate 61.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 57.24(Average Objective).
December Cotton(ICE): The CTZ4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 73.51(Prev Close), the market ended July at 62.87(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 62.32(Month Low) to 73.70(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CTZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should penetrate 62.32(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 57.89(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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