MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Apr 30, 2014

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Apr

14579.00

14888.00

14434.00

14840.00

89%

14888.00

15531.58

15500.00

#OEX

Higher

Apr

704.55

719.10

692.75

719.00

100%

92%

719.10

753.48

755.25

#NDX

Higher

Apr

2818.70

2887.90

2731.00

2887.40

100%

94%

2887.90

3118.15

3090.20

#MID

Higher

Apr

1153.70

1160.00

1101.05

1160.00

100%

86%

1160.00

1230.37

1231.90

#VLE

Higher

Apr

3548.80

3579.10

3397.60

3579.10

100%

89%

3579.10

3793.95

3917.10

#SSNI

Higher

Apr

12398

13984

11806

13861

94%

95%

13984

14716

13668

#SP

Higher

Apr

1569.20

1597.55

1536.05

1597.55

100%

87%

1597.55

1671.90

1685.75

SPU4

Higher

Apr

1857.60

1884.00

1801.30

1870.50

84%

95%

1884.00

1967.02

1870.50

USU4

Higher

Apr

132~100

134~170

131~000

134~050

89%

94%

134~170

142~014

134~050

TYU4

Higher

Apr

122~180

124~005

122~000

123~170

76%

93%

124~005

128~094

123~170

ADU4

Higher

Apr

91.68

93.55

91.07

92.09

41%

84%

93.55

97.13

92.09

RBQ4

Higher

Apr

284.88

296.94

275.63

288.79

62%

84%

296.94

324.36

288.79

RBU4

Higher

Apr

281.07

291.95

272.12

284.24

61%

86%

291.95

315.79

284.24

NGQ4

Higher

Apr

4.442

4.870

4.300

4.838

94%

93%

4.870

5.503

4.838

NGU4

Higher

Apr

4.420

4.845

4.280

4.813

94%

93%

4.845

5.484

4.813

CN4

Higher

Apr

506.75

524.25

490.75

519.00

84%

88%

524.25

573.78

519.00

CU4

Higher

Apr

502.00

519.75

488.50

513.25

79%

89%

519.75

570.75

513.25

CZ4

Higher

Apr

498.25

517.00

487.50

509.25

74%

91%

517.00

575.30

509.25

RRN4

Lower

Apr

15.66

15.70

15.20

15.56

71%

90%

15.20

14.18

15.56

LEQ4

Lower

Apr

123.585

125.180

112.150

121.950

75%

100%

112.150

102.577

121.950

SBN4

Lower

Apr

18.13

18.15

17.18

17.72

56%

85%

17.18

14.76

17.72

SBV4

Lower

Apr

18.55

18.67

17.77

18.35

64%

84%

17.77

15.38

18.35

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 14579.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 14840.00(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 14434.00(Month Low) to 14888.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in April than March in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #DJ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 14888.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 15531.58(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 704.55(Prev Close), the market ended April at 719.00(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 692.75(Month Low) to 719.10(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in April than March in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #OEX went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 719.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 753.48(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2818.70(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2887.40(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 2731.00(Month Low) to 2887.90(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #NDX went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 2887.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 3118.15(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1153.70(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1160.00(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 1101.05(Month Low) to 1160.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in April than March in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #MID went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1160.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1230.37(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 3548.80(Prev Close), the market ended April at 3579.10(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 3397.60(Month Low) to 3579.10(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #VLE went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 3579.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 3793.95(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 12398(Prev Close), the market ended April at 13861(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 11806(Month Low) to 13984(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #SSNI went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 13984(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 14716(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1569.20(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1597.55(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 1536.05(Month Low) to 1597.55(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in April than March in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, the #SP went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1597.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 1671.90(Average Objective).
September S & P 500(CME): The SPU4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1857.60(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1870.50(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 1801.30(Month Low) to 1884.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SPU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 1884.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1967.02(Average Objective).
September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USU4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 132~100(Prev Close), the market ended April at 134~050(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 131~000(Month Low) to 134~170(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, USU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should exceed 134~170(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 142~014(Average Objective).
September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYU4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 122~180(Prev Close), the market ended April at 123~170(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 122~000(Month Low) to 124~005(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, TYU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should exceed 124~005(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 128~094(Average Objective).
September Australian Dollar(CME): The ADU4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 91.68(Prev Close), the market ended April at 92.09(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 91.07(Month Low) to 93.55(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, ADU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADU should exceed 93.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 97.13(Average Objective).
August Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBQ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 284.88(Prev Close), the market ended April at 288.79(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 275.63(Month Low) to 296.94(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, RBQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBQ should exceed 296.94(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 324.36(Average Objective).
September Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBU4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 281.07(Prev Close), the market ended April at 284.24(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 272.12(Month Low) to 291.95(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, RBU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBU should exceed 291.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 315.79(Average Objective).
August Natural Gas(NYM): The NGQ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 4.442(Prev Close), the market ended April at 4.838(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 4.300(Month Low) to 4.870(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NGQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 4.870(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 5.503(Average Objective).
September Natural Gas(NYM): The NGU4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 4.420(Prev Close), the market ended April at 4.813(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 4.280(Month Low) to 4.845(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, NGU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should exceed 4.845(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 5.484(Average Objective).
July Corn(CBOT): The CN4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 506.75(Prev Close), the market ended April at 519.00(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 490.75(Month Low) to 524.25(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CN went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should exceed 524.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 573.78(Average Objective).
September Corn(CBOT): The CU4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 502.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 513.25(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 488.50(Month Low) to 519.75(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should exceed 519.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 570.75(Average Objective).
December Corn(CBOT): The CZ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 498.25(Prev Close), the market ended April at 509.25(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 487.50(Month Low) to 517.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CZ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should exceed 517.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 575.30(Average Objective).
July Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRN4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 15.66(Prev Close), the market ended April at 15.56(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 15.20(Month Low) to 15.70(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, RRN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRN should penetrate 15.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 14.18(Average Objective).
August Lean Hogs(CME): The LEQ4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 123.585(Prev Close), the market ended April at 121.950(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 112.150(Month Low) to 125.180(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, LEQ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEQ should penetrate 112.150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 102.577(Average Objective).
July Sugar #11(ICE): The SBN4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 18.13(Prev Close), the market ended April at 17.72(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 17.18(Month Low) to 18.15(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Sugar #11(ICE) also closed lower in April than March in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SBN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBN should penetrate 17.18(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 14.76(Average Objective).
October Sugar #11(ICE): The SBV4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 18.55(Prev Close), the market ended April at 18.35(Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 17.77(Month Low) to 18.67(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed lower in April than March in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SBV went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should penetrate 17.77(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 15.38(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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