MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Jan 31, 2014

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Jan

13104.00

13970.00

13104.00

13861.00

87%

93%

13970.00

14720.07

14840.00

#TRAN

Higher

Jan

5307.00

5885.00

5308.00

5804.00

86%

93%

5885.00

6318.10

6178.00

#RUT

Higher

Jan

849.35

907.90

849.35

902.10

90%

84%

907.90

962.02

947.45

#MID

Higher

Jan

1020.45

1097.40

1020.45

1093.40

95%

1097.40

1155.94

1160.00

#VLE

Higher

Jan

3164.70

3393.40

3164.50

3380.00

94%

95%

3393.40

3582.93

3579.10

#SSNI

Higher

Jan

10395

11145

10399

11139

99%

89%

11145

11981

13861

#SP

Higher

Jan

1426.20

1509.95

1426.20

1498.10

86%

93%

1509.95

1592.31

1597.55

SPM4

Lower

Jan

1834.50

1838.00

1757.50

1774.70

21%

90%

1757.50

1666.34

1774.70

SFM4

Lower

Jan

112.67

109.46

110.34

27%

84%

109.46

104.88

110.34

PLJ4

Higher

Jan

1373.8

1473.0

1364.6

1375.7

10%

93%

1473.0

1605.3

1375.7

NGK4

Higher

Jan

4.095

4.488

3.850

4.379

83%

90%

4.488

5.225

4.379

NGM4

Higher

Jan

4.114

4.499

3.874

4.396

84%

91%

4.499

5.210

4.396

NGN4

Higher

Jan

4.145

4.521

3.910

4.418

83%

92%

4.521

5.186

4.418

NGQ4

Higher

Jan

4.157

4.483

3.921

4.415

88%

92%

4.483

5.122

4.415

SMN4

Lower

Jan

400.90

414.90

390.70

400.50

40%

100%

390.70

368.69

400.50

SMQ4

Lower

Jan

389.50

399.90

380.70

386.20

29%

95%

380.70

359.82

386.20

CK4

Higher

Jan

430.25

443.00

414.50

439.50

88%

86%

443.00

476.49

439.50

CN4

Higher

Jan

437.00

450.00

421.75

444.00

79%

90%

450.00

484.82

444.00

WK4

Lower

Jan

612.00

617.75

553.50

558.25

88%

553.50

511.29

558.25

WN4

Lower

Jan

616.75

620.50

557.25

561.50

96%

557.25

520.19

561.50

KWK4

Lower

Jan

643.00

651.75

605.00

611.00

13%

94%

605.00

570.27

611.00

KWN4

Lower

Jan

643.50

650.50

599.00

602.75

94%

599.00

562.67

602.75

OK4

Higher

Jan

325.25

387.75

315.75

361.25

63%

87%

387.75

424.03

361.25

ON4

Higher

Jan

320.00

361.75

311.00

331.75

41%

86%

361.75

389.71

331.75

RRN4

Lower

Jan

15.28

15.47

15.09

15.16

17%

92%

15.09

13.63

15.16

FCJ4

Higher

Jan

168.100

171.280

167.000

169.680

63%

85%

171.280

180.375

169.680

FCK4

Higher

Jan

168.680

171.800

167.600

170.080

59%

85%

171.800

181.007

170.080

LEK4

Higher

Jan

98.200

102.700

98.000

102.700

100%

88%

102.700

105.717

102.700

CCK4

Higher

Jan

2716

2939

2636

2922

94%

2939

3241

2922

CCN4

Higher

Jan

2724

2940

2643

2924

95%

88%

2940

3226

2924

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 13104.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 13861.00(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 13104.00(Month Low) to 13970.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in January than December in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, the #DJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 13970.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 14720.07(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 5307.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 5804.00(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 5308.00(Month Low) to 5885.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in January than December in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #TRAN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 5885.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 6318.10(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 849.35(Prev Close), the market ended January at 902.10(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 849.35(Month Low) to 907.90(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #RUT went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 907.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 962.02(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1020.45(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1093.40(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 1020.45(Month Low) to 1097.40(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #MID went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1097.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1155.94(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 3164.70(Prev Close), the market ended January at 3380.00(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 3164.50(Month Low) to 3393.40(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #VLE went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 3393.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 3582.93(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 10395(Prev Close), the market ended January at 11139(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 10399(Month Low) to 11145(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #SSNI went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 11145(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 11981(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1426.20(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1498.10(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 1426.20(Month Low) to 1509.95(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in January than December in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #SP went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1509.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 1592.31(Average Objective).
June S & P 500(CME): The SPM4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1834.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1774.70(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 1757.50(Month Low) to 1838.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, SPM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should penetrate 1757.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 1666.34(Average Objective).
June Swiss Franc(CME): The SFM4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 112.67(Prev Close), the market ended January at 110.34(Month Close), that being 27%(Pct Range) off of 109.46(Month Low) to 112.67(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SFM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFM should penetrate 109.46(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 104.88(Average Objective).
April Platinum(NYMEX): The PLJ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1373.8(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1375.7(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 1364.6(Month Low) to 1473.0(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Platinum(NYMEX) also closed higher in January than December in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, PLJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLJ should exceed 1473.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 1605.3(Average Objective).
May Natural Gas(NYM): The NGK4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 4.095(Prev Close), the market ended January at 4.379(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 3.850(Month Low) to 4.488(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, NGK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGK should exceed 4.488(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 5.225(Average Objective).
June Natural Gas(NYM): The NGM4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 4.114(Prev Close), the market ended January at 4.396(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 3.874(Month Low) to 4.499(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, NGM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGM should exceed 4.499(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 5.210(Average Objective).
July Natural Gas(NYM): The NGN4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 4.145(Prev Close), the market ended January at 4.418(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 3.910(Month Low) to 4.521(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, NGN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGN should exceed 4.521(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 5.186(Average Objective).
August Natural Gas(NYM): The NGQ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 4.157(Prev Close), the market ended January at 4.415(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 3.921(Month Low) to 4.483(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, NGQ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 4.483(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 5.122(Average Objective).
July Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMN4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 400.90(Prev Close), the market ended January at 400.50(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 390.70(Month Low) to 414.90(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SMN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMN should penetrate 390.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 368.69(Average Objective).
August Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMQ4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 389.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 386.20(Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 380.70(Month Low) to 399.90(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SMQ went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMQ should penetrate 380.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 359.82(Average Objective).
May Corn(CBOT): The CK4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 430.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 439.50(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 414.50(Month Low) to 443.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CK should exceed 443.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 476.49(Average Objective).
July Corn(CBOT): The CN4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 437.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 444.00(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 421.75(Month Low) to 450.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should exceed 450.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 484.82(Average Objective).
May Wheat(CBOT): The WK4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 612.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 558.25(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 553.50(Month Low) to 617.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, WK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WK should penetrate 553.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 511.29(Average Objective).
July Wheat(CBOT): The WN4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 616.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 561.50(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 557.25(Month Low) to 620.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, WN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WN should penetrate 557.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 520.19(Average Objective).
May Wheat(KCBT): The KWK4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 643.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 611.00(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 605.00(Month Low) to 651.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in January than December in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, KWK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should penetrate 605.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 570.27(Average Objective).
July Wheat(KCBT): The KWN4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 643.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 602.75(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 599.00(Month Low) to 650.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in January than December in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, KWN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWN should penetrate 599.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 562.67(Average Objective).
May Oats(CBOT): The OK4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 325.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 361.25(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 315.75(Month Low) to 387.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Oats(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, OK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OK should exceed 387.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 424.03(Average Objective).
July Oats(CBOT): The ON4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 320.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 331.75(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 311.00(Month Low) to 361.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Oats(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, ON went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ON should exceed 361.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 389.71(Average Objective).
July Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRN4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 15.28(Prev Close), the market ended January at 15.16(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 15.09(Month Low) to 15.47(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RRN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRN should penetrate 15.09(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 13.63(Average Objective).
April Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCJ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 168.100(Prev Close), the market ended January at 169.680(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 167.000(Month Low) to 171.280(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, FCJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCJ should exceed 171.280(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 180.375(Average Objective).
May Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCK4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 168.680(Prev Close), the market ended January at 170.080(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 167.600(Month Low) to 171.800(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, FCK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCK should exceed 171.800(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 181.007(Average Objective).
May Lean Hogs(CME): The LEK4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 98.200(Prev Close), the market ended January at 102.700(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 98.000(Month Low) to 102.700(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 12 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, LEK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEK should exceed 102.700(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 105.717(Average Objective).
May Cocoa(ICE): The CCK4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2716(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2922(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 2636(Month Low) to 2939(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CCK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCK should exceed 2939(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 3241(Average Objective).
July Cocoa(ICE): The CCN4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2724(Prev Close), the market ended January at 2924(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 2643(Month Low) to 2940(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CCN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCN should exceed 2940(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 3226(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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