MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Oct 31, 2013

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Oct

15130.00

15721.00

14719.00

15546.00

83%

88%

15721.00

16589.30

15546.00

#TRAN

Higher

Oct

29.30

3272.60

33.90

421.80

12%

90%

3272.60

3312.42

421.80

#UTIL

Higher

Oct

482.29

509.30

476.97

499.87

71%

89%

509.30

533.69

499.87

#NDX

Higher

Oct

3218.20

3408.30

3117.70

3377.70

89%

88%

3408.30

3771.26

3377.70

#SP

Higher

Oct

1681.55

1775.20

1646.45

1756.55

86%

85%

1775.20

1883.16

1756.55

USH4

Higher

Oct

131~290

134~080

130~110

133~120

78%

89%

134~080

139~235

133~120

TYH4

Higher

Oct

125~025

126~250

124~070

126~030

73%

95%

126~250

129~289

126~030

EUH4

Higher

Oct

135.31

138.34

134.79

135.94

32%

88%

138.34

143.42

135.94

JYH4

Lower

Oct

101.94

103.58

101.14

101.79

27%

85%

101.14

97.38

101.79

ADH4

Higher

Oct

92.26

96.61

91.99

93.75

38%

88%

96.61

100.33

93.75

PLJ4

Higher

Oct

1416.6

1483.0

1364.3

1450.7

73%

84%

1483.0

1613.0

1450.7

CLG4

Lower

Oct

100.16

102.52

95.96

96.66

11%

93%

95.96

84.98

96.66

CLH4

Lower

Oct

99.13

101.81

95.54

96.47

15%

93%

95.54

85.15

96.47

CLJ4

Lower

Oct

98.14

101.00

94.97

96.10

19%

94%

94.97

85.12

96.10

CLK4

Lower

Oct

97.27

100.11

94.51

95.61

20%

94%

94.51

85.32

95.61

LEJ4

Higher

Oct

89.250

96.450

88.280

93.385

62%

88%

96.450

104.152

93.385

KCH4

Lower

Oct

116.85

121.05

108.40

108.55

85%

108.40

98.87

108.55

CCH4

Higher

Oct

2643

2775

2566

2688

58%

87%

2775

3022

2688

CCK4

Higher

Oct

2643

2772

2562

2686

59%

93%

2772

3013

2686

LBH4

Higher

Oct

353.0

380.5

343.0

375.2

86%

88%

380.5

414.7

375.2

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 15130.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 15546.00(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 14719.00(Month Low) to 15721.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in October than September in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #DJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 15721.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 16589.30(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 29.30(Prev Close), the market ended October at 421.80(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 33.90(Month Low) to 3272.60(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in October than September in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, the #TRAN went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 3272.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 3312.42(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 482.29(Prev Close), the market ended October at 499.87(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 476.97(Month Low) to 509.30(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in October than September in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #UTIL went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 509.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 533.69(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 3218.20(Prev Close), the market ended October at 3377.70(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 3117.70(Month Low) to 3408.30(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in October than September in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #NDX went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 3408.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 3771.26(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1681.55(Prev Close), the market ended October at 1756.55(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 1646.45(Month Low) to 1775.20(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in October than September in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #SP went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1775.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1883.16(Average Objective).
March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 131~290(Prev Close), the market ended October at 133~120(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 130~110(Month Low) to 134~080(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, USH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USH should exceed 134~080(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 139~235(Average Objective).
March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 125~025(Prev Close), the market ended October at 126~030(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 124~070(Month Low) to 126~250(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, TYH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 126~250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 129~289(Average Objective).
March EuroFX(CME): The EUH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 135.31(Prev Close), the market ended October at 135.94(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 134.79(Month Low) to 138.34(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March EuroFX(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, EUH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUH should exceed 138.34(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 143.42(Average Objective).
March Japanese Yen(CME): The JYH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 101.94(Prev Close), the market ended October at 101.79(Month Close), that being 27%(Pct Range) off of 101.14(Month Low) to 103.58(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, JYH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 101.14(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 97.38(Average Objective).
March Australian Dollar(CME): The ADH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 92.26(Prev Close), the market ended October at 93.75(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 91.99(Month Low) to 96.61(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, ADH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADH should exceed 96.61(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 100.33(Average Objective).
April Platinum(NYMEX): The PLJ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1416.6(Prev Close), the market ended October at 1450.7(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 1364.3(Month Low) to 1483.0(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Platinum(NYMEX) also closed higher in October than September in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, PLJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLJ should exceed 1483.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1613.0(Average Objective).
February Crude Oil(NYM): The CLG4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 100.16(Prev Close), the market ended October at 96.66(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 95.96(Month Low) to 102.52(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CLG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLG should penetrate 95.96(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 84.98(Average Objective).
March Crude Oil(NYM): The CLH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 99.13(Prev Close), the market ended October at 96.47(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 95.54(Month Low) to 101.81(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CLH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLH should penetrate 95.54(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 85.15(Average Objective).
April Crude Oil(NYM): The CLJ4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 98.14(Prev Close), the market ended October at 96.10(Month Close), that being 19%(Pct Range) off of 94.97(Month Low) to 101.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CLJ went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLJ should penetrate 94.97(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 85.12(Average Objective).
May Crude Oil(NYM): The CLK4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 97.27(Prev Close), the market ended October at 95.61(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 94.51(Month Low) to 100.11(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CLK went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLK should penetrate 94.51(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 85.32(Average Objective).
April Lean Hogs(CME): The LEJ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 89.250(Prev Close), the market ended October at 93.385(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 88.280(Month Low) to 96.450(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, LEJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEJ should exceed 96.450(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 104.152(Average Objective).
March Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 116.85(Prev Close), the market ended October at 108.55(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 108.40(Month Low) to 121.05(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in October than September in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, KCH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should penetrate 108.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 98.87(Average Objective).
March Cocoa(ICE): The CCH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2643(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2688(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 2566(Month Low) to 2775(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CCH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should exceed 2775(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 3022(Average Objective).
May Cocoa(ICE): The CCK4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2643(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2686(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 2562(Month Low) to 2772(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CCK went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCK should exceed 2772(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 3013(Average Objective).
March Lumber(CME): The LBH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 353.0(Prev Close), the market ended October at 375.2(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 343.0(Month Low) to 380.5(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Lumber(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, LBH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBH should exceed 380.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 414.7(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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