MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary May 31, 2013

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

May

14840.00

15542.00

14687.00

15116.00

50%

86%

15542.00

16274.70

15116.00

#OEX

Higher

May

719.00

757.60

712.05

733.65

47%

85%

757.60

790.62

733.65

#NDX

Higher

May

2887.40

3053.50

2868.80

2981.80

61%

94%

3053.50

3201.38

2981.80

#RUT

Higher

May

947.45

1008.25

924.20

984.15

71%

86%

1008.25

1057.01

984.15

#MID

Higher

May

1160.00

1223.35

1138.50

1184.30

54%

90%

1223.35

1276.02

1184.30

SPU3

Higher

May

1586.20

1678.00

1571.20

1623.30

49%

84%

1678.00

1743.31

1623.30

EUU3

Lower

May

131.75

132.50

128.10

129.90

41%

88%

128.10

124.72

129.90

DXU3

Higher

May

82.010

84.835

81.510

83.670

65%

88%

84.835

86.704

83.670

HGN3

Higher

May

318.75

341.80

304.25

329.25

67%

89%

341.80

374.43

329.25

HGU3

Higher

May

320.10

343.05

306.90

330.75

66%

85%

343.05

379.94

330.75

RBV3

Higher

May

257.42

269.87

248.36

257.50

42%

85%

269.87

288.93

257.50

NGU3

Lower

May

4.414

4.517

3.957

3.997

91%

3.957

3.302

3.997

NGV3

Lower

May

4.424

4.525

3.974

4.010

90%

3.974

3.346

4.010

SX3

Higher

May

1223.50

1314.75

1197.25

1304.25

91%

95%

1314.75

1488.66

1304.25

SF4

Higher

May

1230.75

1319.50

1207.75

1310.00

91%

95%

1319.50

1499.57

1310.00

BOU3

Lower

May

48.83

50.14

47.85

48.21

16%

87%

47.85

43.60

48.21

BOV3

Lower

May

48.55

49.75

47.61

47.94

15%

91%

47.61

43.59

47.94

BOZ3

Lower

May

48.37

49.53

47.39

47.81

20%

91%

47.39

43.61

47.81

BOF4

Lower

May

48.27

49.43

47.24

47.74

23%

91%

47.24

43.67

47.74

SMZ3

Higher

May

343.30

388.30

335.70

384.90

94%

84%

388.30

441.28

384.90

SMF4

Higher

May

345.10

389.10

338.20

385.70

93%

88%

389.10

438.43

385.70

WU3

Lower

May

740.25

744.00

681.50

715.50

54%

88%

681.50

620.57

715.50

WZ3

Lower

May

753.75

758.25

697.00

730.00

54%

88%

697.00

637.65

730.00

KWU3

Lower

May

798.00

803.75

738.50

760.00

33%

94%

738.50

676.34

760.00

KWZ3

Lower

May

812.75

817.75

754.00

778.75

39%

94%

754.00

694.05

778.75

OU3

Lower

May

374.25

347.00

370.25

85%

86%

347.00

303.08

370.25

OZ3

Lower

May

368.00

346.00

363.50

80%

90%

346.00

304.09

363.50

LEV3

Higher

May

82.350

83.900

79.180

83.800

98%

90%

83.900

90.849

83.800

CCZ3

Lower

May

2381

2449

2207

2209

85%

2207

2061

2209

LBU3

Lower

May

346.9

347.1

282.0

311.5

45%

94%

282.0

247.5

311.5

LBX3

Lower

May

339.8

341.3

285.5

315.3

53%

100%

285.5

257.5

315.3

CTZ3

Lower

May

86.28

87.25

82.00

82.06

86%

82.00

76.62

82.06

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 14840.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 15116.00(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 14687.00(Month Low) to 15542.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #DJ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 15542.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 16274.70(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 719.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 733.65(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 712.05(Month Low) to 757.60(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #OEX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 757.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 790.62(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2887.40(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2981.80(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 2868.80(Month Low) to 3053.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in May than April in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #NDX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 3053.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 3201.38(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 947.45(Prev Close), the market ended May at 984.15(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 924.20(Month Low) to 1008.25(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #RUT went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 1008.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1057.01(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1160.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1184.30(Month Close), that being 54%(Pct Range) off of 1138.50(Month Low) to 1223.35(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #MID went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1223.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1276.02(Average Objective).
September S & P 500(CME): The SPU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1586.20(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1623.30(Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 1571.20(Month Low) to 1678.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SPU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 1678.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1743.31(Average Objective).
September EuroFX(CME): The EUU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 131.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 129.90(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 128.10(Month Low) to 132.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September EuroFX(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, EUU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUU should penetrate 128.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 124.72(Average Objective).
September US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 82.010(Prev Close), the market ended May at 83.670(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 81.510(Month Low) to 84.835(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in May than April in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, DXU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should exceed 84.835(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 86.704(Average Objective).
July Copper(CMX): The HGN3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 318.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 329.25(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 304.25(Month Low) to 341.80(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Copper(CMX) also closed higher in May than April in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HGN went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGN should exceed 341.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 374.43(Average Objective).
September Copper(CMX): The HGU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 320.10(Prev Close), the market ended May at 330.75(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 306.90(Month Low) to 343.05(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Copper(CMX) also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, HGU went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGU should exceed 343.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 379.94(Average Objective).
October Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBV3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 257.42(Prev Close), the market ended May at 257.50(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 248.36(Month Low) to 269.87(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in May than April in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RBV went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBV should exceed 269.87(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 288.93(Average Objective).
September Natural Gas(NYM): The NGU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 4.414(Prev Close), the market ended May at 3.997(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 3.957(Month Low) to 4.517(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in May than April in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, NGU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should penetrate 3.957(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 3.302(Average Objective).
October Natural Gas(NYM): The NGV3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 4.424(Prev Close), the market ended May at 4.010(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 3.974(Month Low) to 4.525(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in May than April in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, NGV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGV should penetrate 3.974(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 3.346(Average Objective).
November Soybeans(CBOT): The SX3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1223.50(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1304.25(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 1197.25(Month Low) to 1314.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SX went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should exceed 1314.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1488.66(Average Objective).
January Soybeans(CBOT): The SF4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 1230.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 1310.00(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 1207.75(Month Low) to 1319.50(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SF went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SF should exceed 1319.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1499.57(Average Objective).
September Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 48.83(Prev Close), the market ended May at 48.21(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 47.85(Month Low) to 50.14(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, BOU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOU should penetrate 47.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 43.60(Average Objective).
October Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOV3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 48.55(Prev Close), the market ended May at 47.94(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 47.61(Month Low) to 49.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, BOV went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOV should penetrate 47.61(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 43.59(Average Objective).
December Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 48.37(Prev Close), the market ended May at 47.81(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 47.39(Month Low) to 49.53(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, BOZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOZ should penetrate 47.39(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 43.61(Average Objective).
January Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOF4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 48.27(Prev Close), the market ended May at 47.74(Month Close), that being 23%(Pct Range) off of 47.24(Month Low) to 49.43(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, BOF went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOF should penetrate 47.24(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 43.67(Average Objective).
December Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 343.30(Prev Close), the market ended May at 384.90(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 335.70(Month Low) to 388.30(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SMZ went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMZ should exceed 388.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 441.28(Average Objective).
January Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMF4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 345.10(Prev Close), the market ended May at 385.70(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 338.20(Month Low) to 389.10(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in May than April in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SMF went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMF should exceed 389.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 438.43(Average Objective).
September Wheat(CBOT): The WU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 740.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 715.50(Month Close), that being 54%(Pct Range) off of 681.50(Month Low) to 744.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, WU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WU should penetrate 681.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 620.57(Average Objective).
December Wheat(CBOT): The WZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 753.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 730.00(Month Close), that being 54%(Pct Range) off of 697.00(Month Low) to 758.25(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, WZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should penetrate 697.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 637.65(Average Objective).
September Wheat(KCBT): The KWU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 798.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 760.00(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 738.50(Month Low) to 803.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in May than April in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, KWU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should penetrate 738.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 676.34(Average Objective).
December Wheat(KCBT): The KWZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 812.75(Prev Close), the market ended May at 778.75(Month Close), that being 39%(Pct Range) off of 754.00(Month Low) to 817.75(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in May than April in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, KWZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWZ should penetrate 754.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 694.05(Average Objective).
September Oats(CBOT): The OU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 374.25(Prev Close), the market ended May at 370.25(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 347.00(Month Low) to 374.25(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, OU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OU should penetrate 347.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 303.08(Average Objective).
December Oats(CBOT): The OZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 368.00(Prev Close), the market ended May at 363.50(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 346.00(Month Low) to 368.00(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in May than April in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, OZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OZ should penetrate 346.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 304.09(Average Objective).
October Lean Hogs(CME): The LEV3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 82.350(Prev Close), the market ended May at 83.800(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 79.180(Month Low) to 83.900(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in May than April in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LEV went on to exceed the May high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEV should exceed 83.900(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 90.849(Average Objective).
December Cocoa(ICE): The CCZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 2381(Prev Close), the market ended May at 2209(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 2207(Month Low) to 2449(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, CCZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should penetrate 2207(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 2061(Average Objective).
September Lumber(CME): The LBU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 346.9(Prev Close), the market ended May at 311.5(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 282.0(Month Low) to 347.1(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Lumber(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, LBU went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBU should penetrate 282.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 247.5(Average Objective).
November Lumber(CME): The LBX3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 339.8(Prev Close), the market ended May at 315.3(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 285.5(Month Low) to 341.3(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Lumber(CME) also closed lower in May than April in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, LBX went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBX should penetrate 285.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 257.5(Average Objective).
December Cotton(ICE): The CTZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for May(Month). Compared to April's 86.28(Prev Close), the market ended May at 82.06(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 82.00(Month Low) to 87.25(Month High).

In comparing the April/May closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in May than April in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CTZ went on to penetrate the May low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should penetrate 82.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of July. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 76.62(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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