MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Apr 30, 2013

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Apr

14579.00

14888.00

14434.00

14840.00

89%

14888.00

15518.61

14840.00

#OEX

Higher

Apr

704.55

719.10

692.75

719.00

100%

91%

719.10

753.26

719.00

#NDX

Higher

Apr

2818.70

2887.90

2731.00

2887.40

100%

93%

2887.90

3123.08

2887.40

#MID

Higher

Apr

1153.70

1160.00

1101.05

1160.00

100%

86%

1160.00

1230.78

1160.00

#VLE

Higher

Apr

3548.80

3579.10

3397.60

3579.10

100%

89%

3579.10

3792.54

3579.10

#SSNI

Higher

Apr

12398

13984

11806

13861

94%

95%

13984

14636

13861

#SP

Higher

Apr

1569.20

1597.55

1536.05

1597.55

100%

87%

1597.55

1670.96

1597.55

SPU3

Higher

Apr

1556.60

1587.20

1527.00

1586.20

98%

95%

1587.20

1656.34

1586.20

USU3

Higher

Apr

143~170

148~130

143~090

147~200

85%

94%

148~130

157~056

147~200

TYU3

Higher

Apr

131~035

132~285

131~000

132~190

84%

93%

132~285

137~266

132~190

ADU3

Lower

Apr

102.83

104.54

101.14

102.59

43%

100%

101.14

97.14

102.59

PAU3

Lower

Apr

769.65

785.95

650.75

699.70

36%

85%

650.75

579.12

699.70

RBU3

Lower

Apr

295.47

298.25

261.33

272.08

29%

86%

261.33

245.11

272.08

NGQ3

Higher

Apr

4.130

4.514

3.986

4.420

82%

92%

4.514

5.135

4.420

NGU3

Higher

Apr

4.117

4.490

3.975

4.414

85%

93%

4.490

5.116

4.414

NGV3

Higher

Apr

4.128

4.496

3.989

4.424

86%

92%

4.496

5.031

4.424

NGZ3

Higher

Apr

4.341

4.695

4.222

4.656

92%

87%

4.695

5.165

4.656

BON3

Lower

Apr

50.35

50.73

48.08

49.22

43%

89%

48.08

44.08

49.22

BOQ3

Lower

Apr

50.34

50.76

47.97

49.04

38%

89%

47.97

44.05

49.04

BOU3

Lower

Apr

50.22

50.62

47.86

48.83

35%

84%

47.86

43.64

48.83

CN3

Lower

Apr

676.00

669.00

610.00

650.00

68%

90%

610.00

553.89

650.00

CU3

Higher

Apr

563.00

596.75

536.50

580.25

73%

88%

596.75

656.36

580.25

CZ3

Higher

Apr

538.50

570.00

517.00

556.75

75%

90%

570.00

636.35

556.75

OU3

Lower

Apr

378.25

341.00

374.25

89%

87%

341.00

305.89

374.25

RRN3

Lower

Apr

15.65

16.23

14.87

15.10

17%

100%

14.87

13.88

15.10

RRU3

Lower

Apr

15.32

15.59

14.85

15.04

26%

100%

14.85

13.87

15.04

KCU3

Lower

Apr

142.40

146.80

135.00

137.35

20%

85%

135.00

117.93

137.35

SBN3

Lower

Apr

17.70

17.97

17.25

17.60

49%

85%

17.25

14.93

17.60

SBH4

Lower

Apr

19.05

19.16

18.53

18.85

51%

86%

18.53

16.23

18.85

CTN3

Lower

Apr

89.81

91.15

82.84

87.47

56%

89%

82.84

73.64

87.47

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 14579.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 14840.00(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 14434.00(Month Low) to 14888.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in April than March in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #DJ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 14888.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 15518.61(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 704.55(Prev Close), the market ended April at 719.00(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 692.75(Month Low) to 719.10(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in April than March in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, the #OEX went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 719.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 753.26(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2818.70(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2887.40(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 2731.00(Month Low) to 2887.90(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #NDX went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 2887.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 3123.08(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1153.70(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1160.00(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 1101.05(Month Low) to 1160.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #MID went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1160.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1230.78(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 3548.80(Prev Close), the market ended April at 3579.10(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 3397.60(Month Low) to 3579.10(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #VLE went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 3579.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 3792.54(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 12398(Prev Close), the market ended April at 13861(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 11806(Month Low) to 13984(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #SSNI went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 13984(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 14636(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1569.20(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1597.55(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 1536.05(Month Low) to 1597.55(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in April than March in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, the #SP went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1597.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 1670.96(Average Objective).
September S & P 500(CME): The SPU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1556.60(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1586.20(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 1527.00(Month Low) to 1587.20(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SPU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 1587.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1656.34(Average Objective).
September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 143~170(Prev Close), the market ended April at 147~200(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 143~090(Month Low) to 148~130(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, USU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USU should exceed 148~130(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 157~056(Average Objective).
September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 131~035(Prev Close), the market ended April at 132~190(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 131~000(Month Low) to 132~285(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, TYU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should exceed 132~285(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 137~266(Average Objective).
September Australian Dollar(CME): The ADU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 102.83(Prev Close), the market ended April at 102.59(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 101.14(Month Low) to 104.54(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Australian Dollar(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, ADU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADU should penetrate 101.14(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 97.14(Average Objective).
September Palladium(NYMEX): The PAU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 769.65(Prev Close), the market ended April at 699.70(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 650.75(Month Low) to 785.95(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Palladium(NYMEX) also closed lower in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, PAU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAU should penetrate 650.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 579.12(Average Objective).
September Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 295.47(Prev Close), the market ended April at 272.08(Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 261.33(Month Low) to 298.25(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed lower in April than March in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, RBU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBU should penetrate 261.33(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 245.11(Average Objective).
August Natural Gas(NYM): The NGQ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 4.130(Prev Close), the market ended April at 4.420(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 3.986(Month Low) to 4.514(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 4.514(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 5.135(Average Objective).
September Natural Gas(NYM): The NGU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 4.117(Prev Close), the market ended April at 4.414(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 3.975(Month Low) to 4.490(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NGU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should exceed 4.490(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 5.116(Average Objective).
October Natural Gas(NYM): The NGV3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 4.128(Prev Close), the market ended April at 4.424(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 3.989(Month Low) to 4.496(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGV went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGV should exceed 4.496(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 5.031(Average Objective).
December Natural Gas(NYM): The NGZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 4.341(Prev Close), the market ended April at 4.656(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 4.222(Month Low) to 4.695(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, NGZ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should exceed 4.695(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 5.165(Average Objective).
July Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BON3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 50.35(Prev Close), the market ended April at 49.22(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 48.08(Month Low) to 50.73(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, BON went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BON should penetrate 48.08(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 44.08(Average Objective).
August Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOQ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 50.34(Prev Close), the market ended April at 49.04(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 47.97(Month Low) to 50.76(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, BOQ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOQ should penetrate 47.97(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 44.05(Average Objective).
September Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 50.22(Prev Close), the market ended April at 48.83(Month Close), that being 35%(Pct Range) off of 47.86(Month Low) to 50.62(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, BOU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOU should penetrate 47.86(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 43.64(Average Objective).
July Corn(CBOT): The CN3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 676.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 650.00(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 610.00(Month Low) to 669.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, CN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should penetrate 610.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 553.89(Average Objective).
September Corn(CBOT): The CU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 563.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 580.25(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 536.50(Month Low) to 596.75(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should exceed 596.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 656.36(Average Objective).
December Corn(CBOT): The CZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 538.50(Prev Close), the market ended April at 556.75(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 517.00(Month Low) to 570.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CZ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should exceed 570.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 636.35(Average Objective).
September Oats(CBOT): The OU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 378.25(Prev Close), the market ended April at 374.25(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 341.00(Month Low) to 378.25(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, OU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OU should penetrate 341.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 305.89(Average Objective).
July Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRN3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 15.65(Prev Close), the market ended April at 15.10(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 14.87(Month Low) to 16.23(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, RRN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRN should penetrate 14.87(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 13.88(Average Objective).
September Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 15.32(Prev Close), the market ended April at 15.04(Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 14.85(Month Low) to 15.59(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, RRU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should penetrate 14.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 13.87(Average Objective).
September Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 142.40(Prev Close), the market ended April at 137.35(Month Close), that being 20%(Pct Range) off of 135.00(Month Low) to 146.80(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, KCU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCU should penetrate 135.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 117.93(Average Objective).
July Sugar #11(ICE): The SBN3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 17.70(Prev Close), the market ended April at 17.60(Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 17.25(Month Low) to 17.97(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Sugar #11(ICE) also closed lower in April than March in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SBN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBN should penetrate 17.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 14.93(Average Objective).
March Sugar #11(ICE): The SBH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 19.05(Prev Close), the market ended April at 18.85(Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 18.53(Month Low) to 19.16(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Sugar #11(ICE) also closed lower in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SBH went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBH should penetrate 18.53(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 16.23(Average Objective).
July Cotton(ICE): The CTN3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 89.81(Prev Close), the market ended April at 87.47(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 82.84(Month Low) to 91.15(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CTN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTN should penetrate 82.84(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 73.64(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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