MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Feb 28, 2013

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Feb

13861.00

14149.00

13784.00

14054.00

74%

96%

14149.00

14937.62

14054.00

#TRAN

Higher

Feb

5804.20

6035.30

5789.20

5993.40

83%

88%

6035.30

6482.76

5993.40

#UTIL

Higher

Feb

474.00

482.34

469.35

480.41

85%

93%

482.34

502.20

480.41

#OEX

Higher

Feb

674.90

689.25

670.90

682.55

63%

89%

689.25

722.77

682.55

#NDX

Higher

Feb

2731.50

2783.20

2689.80

2738.60

52%

93%

2783.20

3021.12

2738.60

#RUT

Higher

Feb

902.10

932.00

894.25

911.10

45%

89%

932.00

993.27

911.10

#MID

Higher

Feb

1093.40

1123.75

1078.65

1102.65

53%

95%

1123.75

1187.95

1102.65

#VLE

Higher

Feb

3380.00

3476.90

3337.50

3402.40

47%

89%

3476.90

3655.26

3402.40

TYU3

Higher

Feb

130~045

131~175

129~310

131~175

100%

92%

131~175

133~041

131~175

EDM3

Higher

Feb

99.670

99.700

99.665

99.690

71%

86%

99.700

99.942

99.690

SFM3

Lower

Feb

110.11

110.61

106.82

106.88

94%

106.82

103.07

106.88

DXM3

Higher

Feb

79.390

82.245

79.090

82.188

98%

91%

82.245

84.568

82.188

GCM3

Lower

Feb

1664.1

1689.1

1556.4

1579.8

18%

89%

1556.4

1468.3

1579.8

GCQ3

Lower

Feb

1666.1

1686.4

1560.0

1581.3

17%

90%

1560.0

1476.6

1581.3

NGQ3

Higher

Feb

3.599

3.718

3.404

3.662

82%

92%

3.718

4.274

3.662

NGU3

Higher

Feb

3.605

3.721

3.420

3.667

82%

92%

3.721

4.260

3.667

SMK3

Higher

Feb

423.10

443.90

402.10

435.60

80%

90%

443.90

494.98

435.60

SMN3

Higher

Feb

417.20

438.10

397.80

429.60

79%

90%

438.10

485.15

429.60

SMQ3

Higher

Feb

405.40

420.40

384.60

411.60

75%

86%

420.40

463.86

411.60

WU3

Lower

Feb

801.50

810.00

712.00

725.25

14%

88%

712.00

669.49

725.25

WZ3

Lower

Feb

815.00

823.50

726.25

739.50

14%

88%

726.25

685.40

739.50

KWK3

Lower

Feb

849.25

858.50

732.75

752.75

16%

91%

732.75

687.99

752.75

KWN3

Lower

Feb

857.75

866.50

740.25

759.50

15%

86%

740.25

697.59

759.50

KWU3

Lower

Feb

867.50

874.25

755.75

773.00

15%

86%

755.75

714.40

773.00

KWZ3

Lower

Feb

879.25

887.00

774.75

790.00

14%

85%

774.75

734.69

790.00

RRU3

Lower

Feb

15.68

15.89

15.50

15.56

17%

85%

15.50

14.47

15.56

FCU3

Lower

Feb

161.650

162.135

153.900

156.885

36%

88%

153.900

146.254

156.885

LEK3

Lower

Feb

96.385

96.750

88.180

89.300

13%

100%

88.180

79.723

89.300

JON3

Higher

Feb

121.00

132.85

120.85

127.95

59%

84%

132.85

143.41

127.95

CTK3

Higher

Feb

83.15

85.97

81.35

85.29

85%

92%

85.97

93.31

85.29

CTN3

Higher

Feb

83.44

86.39

82.21

85.94

89%

88%

86.39

92.68

85.94

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 13861.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 14054.00(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 13784.00(Month Low) to 14149.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #DJ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 14149.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 14937.62(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 5804.20(Prev Close), the market ended February at 5993.40(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 5789.20(Month Low) to 6035.30(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #TRAN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 6035.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 6482.76(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 474.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 480.41(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 469.35(Month Low) to 482.34(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in February than January in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #UTIL went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 482.34(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 502.20(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 674.90(Prev Close), the market ended February at 682.55(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 670.90(Month Low) to 689.25(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #OEX went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 689.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 722.77(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 2731.50(Prev Close), the market ended February at 2738.60(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 2689.80(Month Low) to 2783.20(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #NDX went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 2783.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 3021.12(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 902.10(Prev Close), the market ended February at 911.10(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 894.25(Month Low) to 932.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #RUT went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 932.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 993.27(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1093.40(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1102.65(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 1078.65(Month Low) to 1123.75(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #MID went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1123.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1187.95(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 3380.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 3402.40(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 3337.50(Month Low) to 3476.90(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #VLE went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 3476.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 3655.26(Average Objective).
September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 130~045(Prev Close), the market ended February at 131~175(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 129~310(Month Low) to 131~175(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, TYU went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYU should exceed 131~175(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 133~041(Average Objective).
June Eurodollars(CME): The EDM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 99.670(Prev Close), the market ended February at 99.690(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 99.665(Month Low) to 99.700(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, EDM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 99.700(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 99.942(Average Objective).
June Swiss Franc(CME): The SFM3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 110.11(Prev Close), the market ended February at 106.88(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 106.82(Month Low) to 110.61(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, SFM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFM should penetrate 106.82(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 103.07(Average Objective).
June US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 79.390(Prev Close), the market ended February at 82.188(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 79.090(Month Low) to 82.245(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, DXM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXM should exceed 82.245(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 84.568(Average Objective).
June Gold(CMX): The GCM3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1664.1(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1579.8(Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 1556.4(Month Low) to 1689.1(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Gold(CMX) also closed lower in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, GCM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCM should penetrate 1556.4(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1468.3(Average Objective).
August Gold(CMX): The GCQ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1666.1(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1581.3(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 1560.0(Month Low) to 1686.4(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Gold(CMX) also closed lower in February than January in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, GCQ went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCQ should penetrate 1560.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1476.6(Average Objective).
August Natural Gas(NYM): The NGQ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 3.599(Prev Close), the market ended February at 3.662(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 3.404(Month Low) to 3.718(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 3.718(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 4.274(Average Objective).
September Natural Gas(NYM): The NGU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 3.605(Prev Close), the market ended February at 3.667(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 3.420(Month Low) to 3.721(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGU went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should exceed 3.721(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 4.260(Average Objective).
May Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 423.10(Prev Close), the market ended February at 435.60(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 402.10(Month Low) to 443.90(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SMK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMK should exceed 443.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 494.98(Average Objective).
July Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMN3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 417.20(Prev Close), the market ended February at 429.60(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 397.80(Month Low) to 438.10(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SMN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMN should exceed 438.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 485.15(Average Objective).
August Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMQ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 405.40(Prev Close), the market ended February at 411.60(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 384.60(Month Low) to 420.40(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SMQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMQ should exceed 420.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 463.86(Average Objective).
September Wheat(CBOT): The WU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 801.50(Prev Close), the market ended February at 725.25(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 712.00(Month Low) to 810.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, WU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WU should penetrate 712.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 669.49(Average Objective).
December Wheat(CBOT): The WZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 815.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 739.50(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 726.25(Month Low) to 823.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, WZ went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should penetrate 726.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 685.40(Average Objective).
May Wheat(KCBT): The KWK3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 849.25(Prev Close), the market ended February at 752.75(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 732.75(Month Low) to 858.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in February than January in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, KWK went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should penetrate 732.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 687.99(Average Objective).
July Wheat(KCBT): The KWN3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 857.75(Prev Close), the market ended February at 759.50(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 740.25(Month Low) to 866.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in February than January in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, KWN went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWN should penetrate 740.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 697.59(Average Objective).
September Wheat(KCBT): The KWU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 867.50(Prev Close), the market ended February at 773.00(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 755.75(Month Low) to 874.25(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in February than January in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, KWU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should penetrate 755.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 714.40(Average Objective).
December Wheat(KCBT): The KWZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 879.25(Prev Close), the market ended February at 790.00(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 774.75(Month Low) to 887.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in February than January in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, KWZ went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWZ should penetrate 774.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 734.69(Average Objective).
September Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 15.68(Prev Close), the market ended February at 15.56(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 15.50(Month Low) to 15.89(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RRU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should penetrate 15.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 14.47(Average Objective).
September Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 161.650(Prev Close), the market ended February at 156.885(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 153.900(Month Low) to 162.135(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, FCU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCU should penetrate 153.900(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 146.254(Average Objective).
May Lean Hogs(CME): The LEK3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 96.385(Prev Close), the market ended February at 89.300(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 88.180(Month Low) to 96.750(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 11 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 5(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 5, LEK went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 5 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEK should penetrate 88.180(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 5 years) a potential move toward 79.723(Average Objective).
July Orange Juice(ICE): The JON3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 121.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 127.95(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 120.85(Month Low) to 132.85(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Orange Juice(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, JON went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JON should exceed 132.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 143.41(Average Objective).
May Cotton(ICE): The CTK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 83.15(Prev Close), the market ended February at 85.29(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 81.35(Month Low) to 85.97(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CTK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTK should exceed 85.97(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 93.31(Average Objective).
July Cotton(ICE): The CTN3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 83.44(Prev Close), the market ended February at 85.94(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 82.21(Month Low) to 86.39(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, CTN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTN should exceed 86.39(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 92.68(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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