MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Jan 31, 2013

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Jan

13104.00

13970.00

13104.00

13861.00

87%

93%

13970.00

14719.57

13861.00

#TRAN

Higher

Jan

5306.80

5884.60

5307.60

5804.20

86%

92%

5884.60

6313.99

5804.20

#MID

Higher

Jan

1020.45

1097.40

1020.45

1093.40

95%

1097.40

1155.23

1093.40

#VLE

Higher

Jan

3164.70

3393.40

3164.50

3380.00

94%

3393.40

3584.00

3380.00

#SSNI

Higher

Jan

10395

11145

10399

11139

99%

89%

11145

11930

11139

#SP

Higher

Jan

1426.20

1509.95

1426.20

1498.10

86%

92%

1509.95

1592.37

1498.10

SPH3

Higher

Jan

1420.10

1505.90

1439.30

1493.30

81%

85%

1505.90

1576.93

1493.30

SPM3

Higher

Jan

1413.30

1498.60

1437.30

1486.80

81%

90%

1498.60

1581.25

1486.80

EDU3

Lower

Jan

99.655

99.685

99.580

99.635

52%

85%

99.580

99.173

99.635

JYM3

Lower

Jan

115.58

109.16

109.53

86%

109.16

105.13

109.53

PLJ3

Higher

Jan

1542.4

1706.8

1539.0

1675.4

81%

93%

1706.8

1871.8

1675.4

HGK3

Higher

Jan

366.20

378.60

361.50

374.50

76%

96%

378.60

422.58

374.50

HGN3

Higher

Jan

367.20

379.65

362.85

375.65

76%

96%

379.65

421.96

375.65

HGU3

Higher

Jan

368.00

380.35

364.10

376.60

77%

96%

380.35

420.46

376.60

CLJ3

Higher

Jan

92.73

98.66

92.41

97.96

89%

88%

98.66

110.32

97.96

CLK3

Higher

Jan

93.16

99.01

92.80

98.41

90%

94%

99.01

110.75

98.41

CLM3

Higher

Jan

93.49

99.31

93.05

98.77

91%

94%

99.31

110.16

98.77

CLN3

Higher

Jan

93.70

99.36

93.25

98.99

94%

99.36

110.15

98.99

CLQ3

Higher

Jan

93.76

99.18

93.29

98.94

96%

87%

99.18

110.70

98.94

HOK3

Higher

Jan

302.38

315.35

298.24

314.95

98%

86%

315.35

352.46

314.95

RBK3

Higher

Jan

289.40

315.00

287.57

314.50

98%

94%

315.00

352.60

314.50

RBM3

Higher

Jan

286.22

309.60

284.18

309.19

98%

89%

309.60

348.43

309.19

RBN3

Higher

Jan

282.38

304.18

280.26

303.88

99%

89%

304.18

340.21

303.88

RBQ3

Higher

Jan

278.18

298.95

276.50

298.62

99%

88%

298.95

339.67

298.62

NGJ3

Lower

Jan

3.403

3.670

3.150

3.392

47%

92%

3.150

2.780

3.392

NGM3

Higher

Jan

3.508

3.763

3.204

3.515

56%

90%

3.763

4.322

3.515

NGN3

Higher

Jan

3.562

3.810

3.336

3.574

50%

91%

3.810

4.338

3.574

NGQ3

Higher

Jan

3.590

3.829

3.365

3.599

50%

91%

3.829

4.341

3.599

SX3

Higher

Jan

1302.75

1338.50

1259.25

1327.75

86%

88%

1338.50

1425.53

1327.75

BOK3

Higher

Jan

50.18

53.40

49.51

53.28

97%

86%

53.40

60.10

53.28

SMV3

Lower

Jan

369.80

375.90

355.60

369.50

68%

86%

355.60

333.13

369.50

CN3

Higher

Jan

697.25

736.75

672.00

733.25

95%

85%

736.75

797.51

733.25

CU3

Lower

Jan

621.25

627.25

592.00

615.25

66%

100%

592.00

563.62

615.25

CZ3

Lower

Jan

599.75

605.00

570.00

591.00

60%

100%

570.00

543.94

591.00

WK3

Higher

Jan

787.75

808.50

745.25

788.00

68%

85%

808.50

862.83

788.00

WN3

Lower

Jan

793.75

813.25

752.25

793.25

67%

92%

752.25

702.51

793.25

WU3

Lower

Jan

807.00

821.75

765.25

801.50

64%

91%

765.25

717.81

801.50

WZ3

Lower

Jan

820.75

834.50

779.00

815.00

65%

95%

779.00

730.13

815.00

KWU3

Higher

Jan

859.75

879.25

816.25

867.50

81%

89%

879.25

947.39

867.50

OK3

Higher

Jan

354.50

376.25

335.00

367.00

78%

86%

376.25

412.11

367.00

ON3

Higher

Jan

357.75

378.00

340.25

372.00

84%

85%

378.00

408.91

372.00

RRU3

Higher

Jan

15.40

15.70

15.29

15.68

95%

90%

15.70

17.01

15.68

LEK3

Higher

Jan

95.730

97.280

94.150

96.385

71%

100%

97.280

100.112

96.385

LEQ3

Higher

Jan

96.500

98.250

95.150

97.180

65%

86%

98.250

105.527

97.180

LBN3

Lower

Jan

360.3

375.2

338.3

354.9

45%

88%

338.3

315.5

354.9

CTV3

Higher

Jan

78.55

82.06

77.59

81.69

92%

88%

82.06

88.38

81.69

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 13104.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 13861.00(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 13104.00(Month Low) to 13970.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in January than December in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #DJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 13970.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 14719.57(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 5306.80(Prev Close), the market ended January at 5804.20(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 5307.60(Month Low) to 5884.60(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #TRAN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 5884.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 6313.99(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1020.45(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1093.40(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 1020.45(Month Low) to 1097.40(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #MID went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1097.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1155.23(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 3164.70(Prev Close), the market ended January at 3380.00(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 3164.50(Month Low) to 3393.40(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in January than December in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #VLE went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 3393.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 3584.00(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 10395(Prev Close), the market ended January at 11139(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 10399(Month Low) to 11145(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in January than December in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #SSNI went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 11145(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 11930(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1426.20(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1498.10(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 1426.20(Month Low) to 1509.95(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #SP went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1509.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 1592.37(Average Objective).
March S & P 500(CME): The SPH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1420.10(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1493.30(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 1439.30(Month Low) to 1505.90(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SPH went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPH should exceed 1505.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1576.93(Average Objective).
June S & P 500(CME): The SPM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1413.30(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1486.80(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 1437.30(Month Low) to 1498.60(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SPM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should exceed 1498.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1581.25(Average Objective).
September Eurodollars(CME): The EDU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 99.655(Prev Close), the market ended January at 99.635(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 99.580(Month Low) to 99.685(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, EDU went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should penetrate 99.580(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 99.173(Average Objective).
June Japanese Yen(CME): The JYM3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 115.58(Prev Close), the market ended January at 109.53(Month Close), that being 6%(Pct Range) off of 109.16(Month Low) to 115.58(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, JYM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYM should penetrate 109.16(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 105.13(Average Objective).
April Platinum(NYMEX): The PLJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1542.4(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1675.4(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 1539.0(Month Low) to 1706.8(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Platinum(NYMEX) also closed higher in January than December in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, PLJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLJ should exceed 1706.8(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 1871.8(Average Objective).
June Palladium(NYMEX): The PAM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 49.29(Prev Close), the market ended January at 91.74(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 10.49(Month Low) to 104.64(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in January than December in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, PAM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAM should exceed 104.64(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 119.43(Average Objective).
May Copper(CMX): The HGK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 366.20(Prev Close), the market ended January at 374.50(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 361.50(Month Low) to 378.60(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Copper(CMX) also closed higher in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, HGK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGK should exceed 378.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 422.58(Average Objective).
July Copper(CMX): The HGN3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 367.20(Prev Close), the market ended January at 375.65(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 362.85(Month Low) to 379.65(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Copper(CMX) also closed higher in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, HGN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGN should exceed 379.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 421.96(Average Objective).
September Copper(CMX): The HGU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 368.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 376.60(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 364.10(Month Low) to 380.35(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Copper(CMX) also closed higher in January than December in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, HGU went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGU should exceed 380.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 420.46(Average Objective).
April Crude Oil(NYM): The CLJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 92.73(Prev Close), the market ended January at 97.96(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 92.41(Month Low) to 98.66(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CLJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLJ should exceed 98.66(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 110.32(Average Objective).
May Crude Oil(NYM): The CLK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 93.16(Prev Close), the market ended January at 98.41(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 92.80(Month Low) to 99.01(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CLK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLK should exceed 99.01(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 110.75(Average Objective).
June Crude Oil(NYM): The CLM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 93.49(Prev Close), the market ended January at 98.77(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 93.05(Month Low) to 99.31(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CLM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLM should exceed 99.31(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 110.16(Average Objective).
July Crude Oil(NYM): The CLN3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 93.70(Prev Close), the market ended January at 98.99(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 93.25(Month Low) to 99.36(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CLN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLN should exceed 99.36(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 110.15(Average Objective).
August Crude Oil(NYM): The CLQ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 93.76(Prev Close), the market ended January at 98.94(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 93.29(Month Low) to 99.18(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CLQ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLQ should exceed 99.18(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 110.70(Average Objective).
May Heating Oil(NYM): The HOK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 302.38(Prev Close), the market ended January at 314.95(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 298.24(Month Low) to 315.35(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, HOK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOK should exceed 315.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 352.46(Average Objective).
May Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 289.40(Prev Close), the market ended January at 314.50(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 287.57(Month Low) to 315.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in January than December in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, RBK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBK should exceed 315.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 352.60(Average Objective).
June Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 286.22(Prev Close), the market ended January at 309.19(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 284.18(Month Low) to 309.60(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, RBM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBM should exceed 309.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 348.43(Average Objective).
July Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBN3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 282.38(Prev Close), the market ended January at 303.88(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 280.26(Month Low) to 304.18(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, RBN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBN should exceed 304.18(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 340.21(Average Objective).
August Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBQ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 278.18(Prev Close), the market ended January at 298.62(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 276.50(Month Low) to 298.95(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in January than December in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, RBQ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBQ should exceed 298.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 339.67(Average Objective).
April Natural Gas(NYM): The NGJ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 3.403(Prev Close), the market ended January at 3.392(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 3.150(Month Low) to 3.670(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in January than December in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, NGJ went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGJ should penetrate 3.150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2.780(Average Objective).
June Natural Gas(NYM): The NGM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 3.508(Prev Close), the market ended January at 3.515(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 3.204(Month Low) to 3.763(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, NGM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGM should exceed 3.763(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 4.322(Average Objective).
July Natural Gas(NYM): The NGN3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 3.562(Prev Close), the market ended January at 3.574(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 3.336(Month Low) to 3.810(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, NGN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGN should exceed 3.810(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 4.338(Average Objective).
August Natural Gas(NYM): The NGQ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 3.590(Prev Close), the market ended January at 3.599(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 3.365(Month Low) to 3.829(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in January than December in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, NGQ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 3.829(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 4.341(Average Objective).
November Soybeans(CBOT): The SX3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1302.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1327.75(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 1259.25(Month Low) to 1338.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SX went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should exceed 1338.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1425.53(Average Objective).
May Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 50.18(Prev Close), the market ended January at 53.28(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 49.51(Month Low) to 53.40(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, BOK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOK should exceed 53.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 60.10(Average Objective).
October Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMV3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 369.80(Prev Close), the market ended January at 369.50(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 355.60(Month Low) to 375.90(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SMV went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMV should penetrate 355.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 333.13(Average Objective).
July Corn(CBOT): The CN3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 697.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 733.25(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 672.00(Month Low) to 736.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should exceed 736.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 797.51(Average Objective).
September Corn(CBOT): The CU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 621.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 615.25(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 592.00(Month Low) to 627.25(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CU went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should penetrate 592.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 563.62(Average Objective).
December Corn(CBOT): The CZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 599.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 591.00(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 570.00(Month Low) to 605.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CZ went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 570.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 543.94(Average Objective).
May Wheat(CBOT): The WK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 787.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 788.00(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 745.25(Month Low) to 808.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, WK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WK should exceed 808.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 862.83(Average Objective).
July Wheat(CBOT): The WN3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 793.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 793.25(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 752.25(Month Low) to 813.25(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, WN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WN should penetrate 752.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 702.51(Average Objective).
September Wheat(CBOT): The WU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 807.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 801.50(Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 765.25(Month Low) to 821.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, WU went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WU should penetrate 765.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 717.81(Average Objective).
December Wheat(CBOT): The WZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 820.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 815.00(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 779.00(Month Low) to 834.50(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, WZ went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should penetrate 779.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 730.13(Average Objective).
September Wheat(KCBT): The KWU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 859.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 867.50(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 816.25(Month Low) to 879.25(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed higher in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, KWU went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should exceed 879.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 947.39(Average Objective).
May Oats(CBOT): The OK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 354.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 367.00(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 335.00(Month Low) to 376.25(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Oats(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, OK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OK should exceed 376.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 412.11(Average Objective).
July Oats(CBOT): The ON3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 357.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 372.00(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 340.25(Month Low) to 378.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Oats(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, ON went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ON should exceed 378.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 408.91(Average Objective).
September Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 15.40(Prev Close), the market ended January at 15.68(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 15.29(Month Low) to 15.70(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed higher in January than December in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, RRU went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should exceed 15.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 17.01(Average Objective).
May Lean Hogs(CME): The LEK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 95.730(Prev Close), the market ended January at 96.385(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 94.150(Month Low) to 97.280(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 11 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, LEK went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEK should exceed 97.280(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 100.112(Average Objective).
August Lean Hogs(CME): The LEQ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 96.500(Prev Close), the market ended January at 97.180(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 95.150(Month Low) to 98.250(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, LEQ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEQ should exceed 98.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 105.527(Average Objective).
July Lumber(CME): The LBN3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 360.3(Prev Close), the market ended January at 354.9(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 338.3(Month Low) to 375.2(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lumber(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, LBN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBN should penetrate 338.3(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 315.5(Average Objective).
October Cotton(ICE): The CTV3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 78.55(Prev Close), the market ended January at 81.69(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 77.59(Month Low) to 82.06(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, CTV went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTV should exceed 82.06(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 88.38(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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