MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Nov 30, 2012

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#TRAN

Higher

Nov

5085.00

5213.50

4838.10

5119.10

75%

90%

5213.50

5646.33

5119.10

#NDX

Higher

Nov

2647.90

2701.90

2494.40

2677.90

88%

100%

2701.90

2963.11

2677.90

#RUT

Higher

Nov

818.75

830.55

763.55

821.90

87%

95%

830.55

887.14

821.90

#MID

Higher

Nov

980.45

1005.60

940.90

1000.15

92%

95%

1005.60

1066.13

1000.15

#VLE

Higher

Nov

3023.10

3090.30

2871.80

3072.80

92%

100%

3090.30

3273.66

3072.80

#SP

Higher

Nov

1412.15

1434.25

1343.35

1416.20

80%

90%

1434.25

1510.77

1416.20

SPH3

Higher

Nov

1400.00

1423.40

1336.50

1407.80

82%

100%

1423.40

1494.56

1407.80

SPM3

Higher

Nov

1392.90

1416.30

1329.50

1401.10

82%

100%

1416.30

1487.22

1401.10

NDH3

Higher

Nov

2634.00

2679.00

2515.00

2669.30

94%

100%

2679.00

2909.15

2669.30

USH3

Higher

Nov

147~300

151~100

146~080

150~020

75%

85%

151~100

156~286

150~020

TYH3

Higher

Nov

132~150

133~275

131~245

133~205

90%

94%

133~275

137~077

133~205

EDM3

Higher

Nov

99.660

99.680

99.640

99.665

63%

93%

99.680

100.408

99.665

EUH3

Higher

Nov

129.79

130.43

126.80

130.13

92%

86%

130.43

136.09

130.13

JYH3

Lower

Nov

125.54

126.58

120.88

121.49

11%

89%

120.88

116.75

121.49

CDH3

Higher

Nov

99.67

100.95

99.19

100.46

72%

92%

100.95

102.75

100.46

SIH3

Higher

Nov

3239.1

3449.0

3079.0

3327.9

67%

85%

3449.0

3967.6

3327.9

SIK3

Higher

Nov

3242.8

3452.0

3096.0

3332.7

66%

85%

3452.0

3968.9

3332.7

SIN3

Higher

Nov

3246.0

3455.0

3099.8

3336.8

67%

85%

3455.0

3966.3

3336.8

PAH3

Higher

Nov

611.40

692.50

599.70

688.20

95%

88%

692.50

818.74

688.20

HGH3

Higher

Nov

352.85

365.15

341.40

365.00

99%

91%

365.15

403.96

365.00

HGK3

Higher

Nov

353.60

366.05

343.75

365.90

99%

91%

366.05

401.64

365.90

CLG3

Higher

Nov

87.28

90.31

85.16

89.49

84%

86%

90.31

102.57

89.49

CLH3

Higher

Nov

87.83

90.82

85.80

90.13

86%

90.82

102.00

90.13

CLJ3

Higher

Nov

88.31

91.29

86.42

90.68

87%

86%

91.29

101.65

90.68

CLK3

Higher

Nov

88.72

91.71

86.89

91.12

88%

85%

91.71

102.48

91.12

CLM3

Higher

Nov

89.04

92.03

87.22

91.43

88%

85%

92.03

102.33

91.43

BOV3

Lower

Nov

51.36

52.04

48.44

50.39

54%

84%

48.44

46.26

50.39

WH3

Lower

Nov

879.25

929.75

845.00

863.50

22%

87%

845.00

777.49

863.50

WK3

Lower

Nov

886.25

933.50

851.25

872.00

25%

88%

851.25

789.65

872.00

KWK3

Lower

Nov

925.75

967.00

893.50

922.25

39%

85%

893.50

829.20

922.25

LCG3

Higher

Nov

129.885

132.930

128.150

130.400

47%

89%

132.930

140.117

130.400

LCJ3

Higher

Nov

133.985

136.635

132.280

134.575

53%

86%

136.635

143.983

134.575

LCM3

Higher

Nov

130.150

132.550

128.750

130.780

53%

87%

132.550

138.262

130.780

LEK3

Higher

Nov

97.750

99.200

94.950

98.850

92%

90%

99.200

101.817

98.850

LBH3

Higher

Nov

337.3

349.5

325.3

344.9

81%

85%

349.5

381.1

344.9

Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 5085.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 5119.10(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 4838.10(Month Low) to 5213.50(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in November than October in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, the #TRAN went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 5213.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 5646.33(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 2647.90(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2677.90(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 2494.40(Month Low) to 2701.90(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in November than October in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #NDX went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 2701.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 2963.11(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 818.75(Prev Close), the market ended November at 821.90(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 763.55(Month Low) to 830.55(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in November than October in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #RUT went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 830.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 887.14(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 980.45(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1000.15(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 940.90(Month Low) to 1005.60(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in November than October in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #MID went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1005.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1066.13(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 3023.10(Prev Close), the market ended November at 3072.80(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 2871.80(Month Low) to 3090.30(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #VLE went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 3090.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 3273.66(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1412.15(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1416.20(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 1343.35(Month Low) to 1434.25(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in November than October in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, the #SP went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1434.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 1510.77(Average Objective).
March S & P 500(CME): The SPH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1400.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1407.80(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 1336.50(Month Low) to 1423.40(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SPH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPH should exceed 1423.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1494.56(Average Objective).
June S & P 500(CME): The SPM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1392.90(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1401.10(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 1329.50(Month Low) to 1416.30(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SPM went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should exceed 1416.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1487.22(Average Objective).
March NASDAQ 100(CME): The NDH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 2634.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2669.30(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 2515.00(Month Low) to 2679.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, NDH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDH should exceed 2679.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2909.15(Average Objective).
March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 147~300(Prev Close), the market ended November at 150~020(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 146~080(Month Low) to 151~100(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in November than October in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, USH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USH should exceed 151~100(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 156~286(Average Objective).
March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 132~150(Prev Close), the market ended November at 133~205(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 131~245(Month Low) to 133~275(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in November than October in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, TYH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 133~275(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 137~077(Average Objective).
June Eurodollars(CME): The EDM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 99.660(Prev Close), the market ended November at 99.665(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 99.640(Month Low) to 99.680(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, EDM went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 99.680(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 100.408(Average Objective).
March EuroFX(CME): The EUH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 129.79(Prev Close), the market ended November at 130.13(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 126.80(Month Low) to 130.43(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March EuroFX(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, EUH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUH should exceed 130.43(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 136.09(Average Objective).
March Japanese Yen(CME): The JYH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 125.54(Prev Close), the market ended November at 121.49(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 120.88(Month Low) to 126.58(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, JYH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 120.88(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 116.75(Average Objective).
March Canadian Dollar(CME): The CDH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 99.67(Prev Close), the market ended November at 100.46(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 99.19(Month Low) to 100.95(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, CDH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDH should exceed 100.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 102.75(Average Objective).
March Silver(CMX): The SIH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 3239.1(Prev Close), the market ended November at 3327.9(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 3079.0(Month Low) to 3449.0(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Silver(CMX) also closed higher in November than October in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SIH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIH should exceed 3449.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 3967.6(Average Objective).
May Silver(CMX): The SIK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 3242.8(Prev Close), the market ended November at 3332.7(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 3096.0(Month Low) to 3452.0(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Silver(CMX) also closed higher in November than October in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SIK went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIK should exceed 3452.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 3968.9(Average Objective).
July Silver(CMX): The SIN3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 3246.0(Prev Close), the market ended November at 3336.8(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 3099.8(Month Low) to 3455.0(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Silver(CMX) also closed higher in November than October in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SIN went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIN should exceed 3455.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 3966.3(Average Objective).
March Palladium(NYMEX): The PAH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 611.40(Prev Close), the market ended November at 688.20(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 599.70(Month Low) to 692.50(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in November than October in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, PAH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAH should exceed 692.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 818.74(Average Objective).
March Copper(CMX): The HGH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 352.85(Prev Close), the market ended November at 365.00(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 341.40(Month Low) to 365.15(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Copper(CMX) also closed higher in November than October in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, HGH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGH should exceed 365.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 403.96(Average Objective).
May Copper(CMX): The HGK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 353.60(Prev Close), the market ended November at 365.90(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 343.75(Month Low) to 366.05(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Copper(CMX) also closed higher in November than October in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, HGK went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGK should exceed 366.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 401.64(Average Objective).
February Crude Oil(NYM): The CLG3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 87.28(Prev Close), the market ended November at 89.49(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 85.16(Month Low) to 90.31(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in November than October in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CLG went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLG should exceed 90.31(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 102.57(Average Objective).
March Crude Oil(NYM): The CLH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 87.83(Prev Close), the market ended November at 90.13(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 85.80(Month Low) to 90.82(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in November than October in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CLH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLH should exceed 90.82(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 102.00(Average Objective).
April Crude Oil(NYM): The CLJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 88.31(Prev Close), the market ended November at 90.68(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 86.42(Month Low) to 91.29(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in November than October in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CLJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLJ should exceed 91.29(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 101.65(Average Objective).
May Crude Oil(NYM): The CLK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 88.72(Prev Close), the market ended November at 91.12(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 86.89(Month Low) to 91.71(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in November than October in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, CLK went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLK should exceed 91.71(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 102.48(Average Objective).
June Crude Oil(NYM): The CLM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 89.04(Prev Close), the market ended November at 91.43(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 87.22(Month Low) to 92.03(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in November than October in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, CLM went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLM should exceed 92.03(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 102.33(Average Objective).
October Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOV3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 51.36(Prev Close), the market ended November at 50.39(Month Close), that being 54%(Pct Range) off of 48.44(Month Low) to 52.04(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, BOV went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOV should penetrate 48.44(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 46.26(Average Objective).
March Wheat(CBOT): The WH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 879.25(Prev Close), the market ended November at 863.50(Month Close), that being 22%(Pct Range) off of 845.00(Month Low) to 929.75(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in November than October in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, WH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WH should penetrate 845.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 777.49(Average Objective).
May Wheat(CBOT): The WK3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 886.25(Prev Close), the market ended November at 872.00(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 851.25(Month Low) to 933.50(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in November than October in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, WK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WK should penetrate 851.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 789.65(Average Objective).
May Wheat(KCBT): The KWK3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 925.75(Prev Close), the market ended November at 922.25(Month Close), that being 39%(Pct Range) off of 893.50(Month Low) to 967.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in November than October in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, KWK went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should penetrate 893.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 829.20(Average Objective).
February Live Cattle(CME): The LCG3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 129.885(Prev Close), the market ended November at 130.400(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 128.150(Month Low) to 132.930(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, LCG went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCG should exceed 132.930(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 140.117(Average Objective).
April Live Cattle(CME): The LCJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 133.985(Prev Close), the market ended November at 134.575(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 132.280(Month Low) to 136.635(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, LCJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCJ should exceed 136.635(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 143.983(Average Objective).
June Live Cattle(CME): The LCM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 130.150(Prev Close), the market ended November at 130.780(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 128.750(Month Low) to 132.550(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, LCM went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCM should exceed 132.550(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 138.262(Average Objective).
May Lean Hogs(CME): The LEK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 97.750(Prev Close), the market ended November at 98.850(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 94.950(Month Low) to 99.200(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 11 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, LEK went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEK should exceed 99.200(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 101.817(Average Objective).
March Lumber(CME): The LBH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 337.3(Prev Close), the market ended November at 344.9(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 325.3(Month Low) to 349.5(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Lumber(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, LBH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBH should exceed 349.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 381.1(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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