|
MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary |
|
ScenarioSM Summary Jun 30, 2012 |
Historical Data |
Scenario Data |
Current Market Data |
Mkt |
Cond |
Month |
Prev Close |
Month High |
Month Low |
Month Close |
Pct Range |
Total Years |
Cond Years |
Action Years |
Pct |
Scenario Objective |
Average Objective |
Last Price |
#DJ |
Higher |
Jun |
12393.00 |
12899.00 |
12035.00 |
12880.00 |
98% |
45 |
20 |
17 |
85% |
12899.00 |
13525.55 |
12880.00 |
#UTIL |
Higher |
Jun |
468.04 |
486.39 |
463.71 |
481.36 |
78% |
42 |
22 |
19 |
86% |
486.39 |
507.94 |
481.36 |
SFU2 |
Higher |
Jun |
103.22 |
109.02 |
102.80 |
105.61 |
45% |
37 |
19 |
17 |
89% |
109.02 |
115.55 |
105.61 |
SFZ2 |
Higher |
Jun |
103.50 |
107.30 |
103.50 |
105.89 |
63% |
37 |
18 |
16 |
89% |
107.30 |
114.11 |
105.89 |
BPU2 |
Higher |
Jun |
154.04 |
157.73 |
152.66 |
156.77 |
81% |
37 |
21 |
18 |
86% |
157.73 |
163.69 |
156.77 |
BPZ2 |
Higher |
Jun |
153.99 |
157.43 |
153.45 |
156.73 |
82% |
37 |
21 |
19 |
90% |
157.43 |
163.23 |
156.73 |
ADU2 |
Higher |
Jun |
96.56 |
101.85 |
94.99 |
101.69 |
98% |
25 |
14 |
12 |
86% |
101.85 |
105.38 |
101.69 |
DXU2 |
Lower |
Jun |
83.525 |
84.000 |
81.390 |
81.752 |
14% |
26 |
14 |
13 |
93% |
81.390 |
78.623 |
81.752 |
DXZ2 |
Lower |
Jun |
83.935 |
83.752 |
81.745 |
82.132 |
19% |
26 |
14 |
13 |
93% |
81.745 |
79.041 |
82.132 |
PLV2 |
Higher |
Jun |
1422.0 |
1508.7 |
1385.3 |
1452.4 |
54% |
44 |
16 |
14 |
88% |
1508.7 |
1637.2 |
1452.4 |
PLF3 |
Higher |
Jun |
1425.4 |
1506.5 |
1391.0 |
1456.2 |
56% |
42 |
13 |
12 |
92% |
1506.5 |
1631.4 |
1456.2 |
HGU2 |
Higher |
Jun |
337.35 |
351.50 |
324.95 |
349.65 |
93% |
45 |
22 |
21 |
95% |
351.50 |
383.55 |
349.65 |
HGZ2 |
Higher |
Jun |
338.25 |
352.25 |
326.25 |
350.65 |
94% |
44 |
22 |
21 |
95% |
352.25 |
385.66 |
350.65 |
HGH3 |
Higher |
Jun |
339.00 |
351.65 |
329.00 |
351.40 |
99% |
43 |
19 |
18 |
95% |
351.65 |
381.81 |
351.40 |
HOU2 |
Lower |
Jun |
272.49 |
274.62 |
251.56 |
271.16 |
85% |
32 |
16 |
14 |
88% |
251.56 |
233.84 |
271.16 |
SU2 |
Higher |
Jun |
1293.75 |
1455.00 |
1272.00 |
1450.25 |
97% |
45 |
21 |
18 |
86% |
1455.00 |
1647.43 |
1450.25 |
SX2 |
Higher |
Jun |
1270.25 |
1439.75 |
1244.75 |
1427.75 |
94% |
45 |
20 |
17 |
85% |
1439.75 |
1625.54 |
1427.75 |
SF3 |
Higher |
Jun |
1273.25 |
1437.25 |
1249.50 |
1426.50 |
94% |
45 |
20 |
17 |
85% |
1437.25 |
1618.98 |
1426.50 |
SH3 |
Higher |
Jun |
1253.25 |
1395.25 |
1232.75 |
1387.25 |
95% |
45 |
20 |
17 |
85% |
1395.25 |
1564.80 |
1387.25 |
LCV2 |
Higher |
Jun |
123.700 |
125.800 |
119.650 |
124.400 |
77% |
45 |
23 |
22 |
96% |
125.800 |
133.490 |
124.400 |
LCZ2 |
Higher |
Jun |
126.500 |
129.100 |
122.930 |
127.400 |
72% |
45 |
24 |
22 |
92% |
129.100 |
136.427 |
127.400 |
LCG3 |
Higher |
Jun |
128.235 |
130.885 |
125.385 |
129.450 |
74% |
45 |
27 |
25 |
93% |
130.885 |
137.603 |
129.450 |
JOF3 |
Higher |
Jun |
117.00 |
121.75 |
110.00 |
121.00 |
94% |
44 |
16 |
14 |
88% |
121.75 |
130.90 |
121.00 |
SBV2 |
Higher |
Jun |
19.78 |
21.39 |
19.24 |
21.01 |
82% |
45 |
23 |
20 |
87% |
21.39 |
24.29 |
21.01 |
SBH3 |
Higher |
Jun |
20.75 |
21.87 |
20.25 |
21.50 |
77% |
45 |
24 |
21 |
88% |
21.87 |
24.57 |
21.50 |
CCZ2 |
Higher |
Jun |
2104 |
2321 |
2050 |
2304 |
94% |
45 |
22 |
19 |
86% |
2321 |
2576 |
2304 |
LBU2 |
Lower |
Jun |
279.0 |
286.9 |
256.5 |
271.6 |
50% |
39 |
20 |
17 |
85% |
256.5 |
225.8 |
271.6 |
CTV2 |
Lower |
Jun |
71.85 |
75.00 |
65.00 |
71.57 |
66% |
45 |
21 |
18 |
86% |
65.00 |
57.89 |
71.57 |
- DJIA Index
- The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 12393.00(Prev Close), the market ended June at 12880.00(Month Close),
that being 98%(Pct Range) off of
12035.00(Month Low) to 12899.00(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed
higher in June than May in 20(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 20, the #DJ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 12899.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 13525.55(Average Objective).
- Dow Jones Utilities
- The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 468.04(Prev Close), the market ended June at 481.36(Month Close),
that being 78%(Pct Range) off of
463.71(Month Low) to 486.39(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed
higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 22, the #UTIL went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 486.39(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move
toward 507.94(Average Objective).
- September Swiss Franc(CME)
- The SFU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 103.22(Prev Close), the market ended June at 105.61(Month Close),
that being 45%(Pct Range) off of
102.80(Month Low) to 109.02(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Swiss Franc(CME) also closed
higher in June than May in 19(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 19, SFU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFU should exceed 109.02(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 115.55(Average Objective).
- December Swiss Franc(CME)
- The SFZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 103.50(Prev Close), the market ended June at 105.89(Month Close),
that being 63%(Pct Range) off of
103.50(Month Low) to 107.30(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Swiss Franc(CME) also closed
higher in June than May in 18(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 18, SFZ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFZ should exceed 107.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move
toward 114.11(Average Objective).
- September British Pound(CME)
- The BPU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 154.04(Prev Close), the market ended June at 156.77(Month Close),
that being 81%(Pct Range) off of
152.66(Month Low) to 157.73(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September British Pound(CME) also closed
higher in June than May in 21(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 21, BPU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BPU should exceed 157.73(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move
toward 163.69(Average Objective).
- December British Pound(CME)
- The BPZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 153.99(Prev Close), the market ended June at 156.73(Month Close),
that being 82%(Pct Range) off of
153.45(Month Low) to 157.43(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December British Pound(CME) also closed
higher in June than May in 21(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 21, BPZ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BPZ should exceed 157.43(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move
toward 163.23(Average Objective).
- September Australian Dollar(CME)
- The ADU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 96.56(Prev Close), the market ended June at 101.69(Month Close),
that being 98%(Pct Range) off of
94.99(Month Low) to 101.85(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Australian Dollar(CME) also closed
higher in June than May in 14(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 14, ADU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADU should exceed 101.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move
toward 105.38(Average Objective).
- September US Dollar Index(ICE)
- The DXU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 83.525(Prev Close), the market ended June at 81.752(Month Close),
that being 14%(Pct Range) off of
81.390(Month Low) to 84.000(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed
lower in June than May in 14(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 14, DXU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should penetrate 81.390(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move
toward 78.623(Average Objective).
- December US Dollar Index(ICE)
- The DXZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 83.935(Prev Close), the market ended June at 82.132(Month Close),
that being 19%(Pct Range) off of
81.745(Month Low) to 83.752(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed
lower in June than May in 14(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 14, DXZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should penetrate 81.745(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move
toward 79.041(Average Objective).
- October Platinum(NYMEX)
- The PLV2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 1422.0(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1452.4(Month Close),
that being 54%(Pct Range) off of
1385.3(Month Low) to 1508.7(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Platinum(NYMEX) also closed
higher in June than May in 16(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 16, PLV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLV should exceed 1508.7(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move
toward 1637.2(Average Objective).
- January Platinum(NYMEX)
- The PLF3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 1425.4(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1456.2(Month Close),
that being 56%(Pct Range) off of
1391.0(Month Low) to 1506.5(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Platinum(NYMEX) also closed
higher in June than May in 13(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 13, PLF went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLF should exceed 1506.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move
toward 1631.4(Average Objective).
- September Copper(CMX)
- The HGU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 337.35(Prev Close), the market ended June at 349.65(Month Close),
that being 93%(Pct Range) off of
324.95(Month Low) to 351.50(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Copper(CMX) also closed
higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 22, HGU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGU should exceed 351.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move
toward 383.55(Average Objective).
- December Copper(CMX)
- The HGZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 338.25(Prev Close), the market ended June at 350.65(Month Close),
that being 94%(Pct Range) off of
326.25(Month Low) to 352.25(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Copper(CMX) also closed
higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 22, HGZ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGZ should exceed 352.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move
toward 385.66(Average Objective).
- March Copper(CMX)
- The HGH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 339.00(Prev Close), the market ended June at 351.40(Month Close),
that being 99%(Pct Range) off of
329.00(Month Low) to 351.65(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Copper(CMX) also closed
higher in June than May in 19(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 19, HGH went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGH should exceed 351.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move
toward 381.81(Average Objective).
- September Heating Oil(NYM)
- The HOU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 272.49(Prev Close), the market ended June at 271.16(Month Close),
that being 85%(Pct Range) off of
251.56(Month Low) to 274.62(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Heating Oil(NYM) also closed
lower in June than May in 16(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 16, HOU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOU should penetrate 251.56(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move
toward 233.84(Average Objective).
- September Soybeans(CBOT)
- The SU2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 1293.75(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1450.25(Month Close),
that being 97%(Pct Range) off of
1272.00(Month Low) to 1455.00(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybeans(CBOT) also closed
higher in June than May in 21(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 21, SU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SU should exceed 1455.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move
toward 1647.43(Average Objective).
- November Soybeans(CBOT)
- The SX2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 1270.25(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1427.75(Month Close),
that being 94%(Pct Range) off of
1244.75(Month Low) to 1439.75(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed
higher in June than May in 20(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 20, SX went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should exceed 1439.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 1625.54(Average Objective).
- January Soybeans(CBOT)
- The SF3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 1273.25(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1426.50(Month Close),
that being 94%(Pct Range) off of
1249.50(Month Low) to 1437.25(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybeans(CBOT) also closed
higher in June than May in 20(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 20, SF went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SF should exceed 1437.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 1618.98(Average Objective).
- March Soybeans(CBOT)
- The SH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 1253.25(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1387.25(Month Close),
that being 95%(Pct Range) off of
1232.75(Month Low) to 1395.25(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybeans(CBOT) also closed
higher in June than May in 20(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 20, SH went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SH should exceed 1395.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 1564.80(Average Objective).
- October Live Cattle(CME)
- The LCV2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 123.700(Prev Close), the market ended June at 124.400(Month Close),
that being 77%(Pct Range) off of
119.650(Month Low) to 125.800(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed
higher in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 23, LCV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 125.800(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move
toward 133.490(Average Objective).
- December Live Cattle(CME)
- The LCZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 126.500(Prev Close), the market ended June at 127.400(Month Close),
that being 72%(Pct Range) off of
122.930(Month Low) to 129.100(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed
higher in June than May in 24(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 24, LCZ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should exceed 129.100(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move
toward 136.427(Average Objective).
- February Live Cattle(CME)
- The LCG3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 128.235(Prev Close), the market ended June at 129.450(Month Close),
that being 74%(Pct Range) off of
125.385(Month Low) to 130.885(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Live Cattle(CME) also closed
higher in June than May in 27(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 27, LCG went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCG should exceed 130.885(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move
toward 137.603(Average Objective).
- January Orange Juice(ICE)
- The JOF3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 117.00(Prev Close), the market ended June at 121.00(Month Close),
that being 94%(Pct Range) off of
110.00(Month Low) to 121.75(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Orange Juice(ICE) also closed
higher in June than May in 16(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 16, JOF went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOF should exceed 121.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move
toward 130.90(Average Objective).
- October Sugar #11(ICE)
- The SBV2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 19.78(Prev Close), the market ended June at 21.01(Month Close),
that being 82%(Pct Range) off of
19.24(Month Low) to 21.39(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed
higher in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 23, SBV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should exceed 21.39(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move
toward 24.29(Average Objective).
- March Sugar #11(ICE)
- The SBH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 20.75(Prev Close), the market ended June at 21.50(Month Close),
that being 77%(Pct Range) off of
20.25(Month Low) to 21.87(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Sugar #11(ICE) also closed
higher in June than May in 24(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 24, SBH went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBH should exceed 21.87(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move
toward 24.57(Average Objective).
- December Cocoa(ICE)
- The CCZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 2104(Prev Close), the market ended June at 2304(Month Close),
that being 94%(Pct Range) off of
2050(Month Low) to 2321(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(ICE) also closed
higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 22, CCZ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should exceed 2321(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move
toward 2576(Average Objective).
- September Lumber(CME)
- The LBU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 279.0(Prev Close), the market ended June at 271.6(Month Close),
that being 50%(Pct Range) off of
256.5(Month Low) to 286.9(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Lumber(CME) also closed
lower in June than May in 20(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 20, LBU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBU should penetrate 256.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move
toward 225.8(Average Objective).
- October Cotton(ICE)
- The CTV2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for
June(Month). Compared to May's 71.85(Prev Close), the market ended June at 71.57(Month Close),
that being 66%(Pct Range) off of
65.00(Month Low) to 75.00(Month High).
In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Cotton(ICE) also closed
lower in June than May in 21(Cond Years) of those years.
Of those 21, CTV went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.
Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTV should penetrate 65.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August.
If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on
normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move
toward 57.89(Average Objective).
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