MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Feb 29, 2012

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Feb

12633.00

13056.00

12633.00

12952.00

75%

92%

13056.00

13617.06

12952.00

#TRAN

Lower

Feb

5319.10

5384.20

5090.00

5153.20

21%

94%

5090.00

4133.52

5153.20

#RUT

Higher

Feb

792.80

833.00

792.80

810.95

45%

89%

833.00

867.96

810.95

NDM2

Higher

Feb

2459.00

2640.00

2480.00

2617.30

86%

100%

2640.00

2870.61

2617.30

USM2

Lower

Feb

144~000

139~150

141~210

48%

88%

139~150

135~076

141~210

TYM2

Lower

Feb

132~030

132~050

130~030

130~305

42%

86%

130~030

127~065

130~305

EDM2

Higher

Feb

99.540

99.590

99.470

99.550

67%

86%

99.590

99.832

99.550

EDU2

Lower

Feb

99.520

99.570

99.430

99.510

57%

100%

99.430

98.920

99.510

CDM2

Higher

Feb

99.42

101.32

99.23

100.90

80%

88%

101.32

103.96

100.90

ADM2

Higher

Feb

104.63

107.20

104.25

106.30

69%

88%

107.20

111.93

106.30

GCJ2

Lower

Feb

1740.4

1792.7

1688.4

1711.3

22%

89%

1688.4

1601.2

1711.3

GCM2

Lower

Feb

1743.3

1794.3

1680.0

1714.0

30%

89%

1680.0

1584.4

1714.0

HGK2

Higher

Feb

380.10

399.50

370.25

387.95

61%

84%

399.50

442.36

387.95

HGN2

Higher

Feb

381.15

400.00

372.25

388.90

60%

92%

400.00

440.32

388.90

CLM2

Higher

Feb

99.64

110.71

96.67

107.95

80%

88%

110.71

124.04

107.95

CLN2

Higher

Feb

99.90

110.85

97.05

108.25

81%

94%

110.85

122.93

108.25

HOM2

Higher

Feb

299.25

329.53

298.27

320.44

71%

93%

329.53

368.73

320.44

HON2

Higher

Feb

298.99

329.64

298.20

321.02

73%

93%

329.64

366.79

321.02

RBM2

Higher

Feb

295.62

328.64

293.33

322.24

82%

100%

328.64

382.41

322.24

RBN2

Higher

Feb

291.81

324.66

290.73

318.47

82%

100%

324.66

374.26

318.47

SK2

Higher

Feb

1208.50

1324.25

1211.25

1320.00

96%

87%

1324.25

1447.60

1320.00

SN2

Higher

Feb

1218.00

1331.75

1220.75

1327.75

96%

88%

1331.75

1445.56

1327.75

SQ2

Higher

Feb

1216.00

1321.25

1216.00

1317.00

96%

88%

1321.25

1432.51

1317.00

BOK2

Higher

Feb

51.31

55.25

51.23

54.47

81%

86%

55.25

60.43

54.47

BON2

Higher

Feb

51.72

55.65

51.67

54.87

80%

90%

55.65

60.85

54.87

SMK2

Higher

Feb

321.30

354.20

318.90

352.90

96%

90%

354.20

392.92

352.90

SMN2

Higher

Feb

323.90

354.80

321.80

353.60

96%

90%

354.80

390.72

353.60

KWK2

Lower

Feb

723.75

742.25

673.00

708.50

51%

90%

673.00

633.30

708.50

KWN2

Lower

Feb

731.50

750.00

680.75

717.00

52%

86%

680.75

643.15

717.00

RRK2

Higher

Feb

14.28

14.74

13.78

14.46

71%

89%

14.74

16.82

14.46

RRN2

Higher

Feb

14.54

14.95

14.08

14.72

74%

100%

14.95

17.01

14.72

LCQ2

Higher

Feb

129.275

130.680

128.000

129.680

63%

86%

130.680

137.507

129.680

LEN2

Higher

Feb

98.600

100.585

97.750

99.100

48%

90%

100.585

108.851

99.100

SBV2

Higher

Feb

23.03

24.69

22.83

24.41

85%

86%

24.69

27.40

24.41

CCU2

Lower

Feb

2369

2480

2191

2367

61%

84%

2191

1966

2367

CTK2

Lower

Feb

94.51

98.56

89.01

90.44

15%

89%

89.01

82.53

90.44

CTN2

Lower

Feb

95.61

99.70

90.29

91.87

17%

84%

90.29

84.04

91.87

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 12633.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 12952.00(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 12633.00(Month Low) to 13056.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in February than January in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #DJ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 13056.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 13617.06(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 5319.10(Prev Close), the market ended February at 5153.20(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 5090.00(Month Low) to 5384.20(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed lower in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #TRAN went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should penetrate 5090.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 4133.52(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 792.80(Prev Close), the market ended February at 810.95(Month Close), that being 45%(Pct Range) off of 792.80(Month Low) to 833.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in February than January in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #RUT went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 833.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 867.96(Average Objective).
June NASDAQ 100(CME): The NDM2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 2459.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 2617.30(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 2480.00(Month Low) to 2640.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 15 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 5(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 5, NDM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 5 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDM should exceed 2640.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 5 years) a potential move toward 2870.61(Average Objective).
June 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USM2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 144~000(Prev Close), the market ended February at 141~210(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 139~150(Month Low) to 144~000(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, USM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USM should penetrate 139~150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 135~076(Average Objective).
June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYM2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 132~030(Prev Close), the market ended February at 130~305(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 130~030(Month Low) to 132~050(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, TYM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYM should penetrate 130~030(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 127~065(Average Objective).
June Eurodollars(CME): The EDM2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 99.540(Prev Close), the market ended February at 99.550(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 99.470(Month Low) to 99.590(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, EDM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 99.590(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 99.832(Average Objective).
September Eurodollars(CME): The EDU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 99.520(Prev Close), the market ended February at 99.510(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 99.430(Month Low) to 99.570(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, EDU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should penetrate 99.430(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 98.920(Average Objective).
June Canadian Dollar(CME): The CDM2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 99.42(Prev Close), the market ended February at 100.90(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 99.23(Month Low) to 101.32(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CDM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDM should exceed 101.32(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 103.96(Average Objective).
June Australian Dollar(CME): The ADM2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 104.63(Prev Close), the market ended February at 106.30(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 104.25(Month Low) to 107.20(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, ADM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADM should exceed 107.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 111.93(Average Objective).
April Gold(CMX): The GCJ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1740.4(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1711.3(Month Close), that being 22%(Pct Range) off of 1688.4(Month Low) to 1792.7(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Gold(CMX) also closed lower in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, GCJ went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCJ should penetrate 1688.4(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1601.2(Average Objective).
June Gold(CMX): The GCM2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1743.3(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1714.0(Month Close), that being 30%(Pct Range) off of 1680.0(Month Low) to 1794.3(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Gold(CMX) also closed lower in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, GCM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCM should penetrate 1680.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1584.4(Average Objective).
May Copper(CMX): The HGK2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 380.10(Prev Close), the market ended February at 387.95(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 370.25(Month Low) to 399.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Copper(CMX) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, HGK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGK should exceed 399.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 442.36(Average Objective).
July Copper(CMX): The HGN2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 381.15(Prev Close), the market ended February at 388.90(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 372.25(Month Low) to 400.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Copper(CMX) also closed higher in February than January in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, HGN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGN should exceed 400.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 440.32(Average Objective).
June Crude Oil(NYM): The CLM2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 99.64(Prev Close), the market ended February at 107.95(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 96.67(Month Low) to 110.71(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CLM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLM should exceed 110.71(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 124.04(Average Objective).
July Crude Oil(NYM): The CLN2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 99.90(Prev Close), the market ended February at 108.25(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 97.05(Month Low) to 110.85(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CLN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLN should exceed 110.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 122.93(Average Objective).
June Heating Oil(NYM): The HOM2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 299.25(Prev Close), the market ended February at 320.44(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 298.27(Month Low) to 329.53(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, HOM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOM should exceed 329.53(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 368.73(Average Objective).
July Heating Oil(NYM): The HON2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 298.99(Prev Close), the market ended February at 321.02(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 298.20(Month Low) to 329.64(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, HON went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HON should exceed 329.64(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 366.79(Average Objective).
June Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBM2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 295.62(Prev Close), the market ended February at 322.24(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 293.33(Month Low) to 328.64(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in February than January in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RBM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBM should exceed 328.64(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 382.41(Average Objective).
July Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBN2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 291.81(Prev Close), the market ended February at 318.47(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 290.73(Month Low) to 324.66(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in February than January in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RBN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBN should exceed 324.66(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 374.26(Average Objective).
May Soybeans(CBOT): The SK2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1208.50(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1320.00(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 1211.25(Month Low) to 1324.25(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SK should exceed 1324.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 1447.60(Average Objective).
July Soybeans(CBOT): The SN2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1218.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1327.75(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 1220.75(Month Low) to 1331.75(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SN should exceed 1331.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1445.56(Average Objective).
August Soybeans(CBOT): The SQ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1216.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1317.00(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 1216.00(Month Low) to 1321.25(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SQ should exceed 1321.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1432.51(Average Objective).
May Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOK2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 51.31(Prev Close), the market ended February at 54.47(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 51.23(Month Low) to 55.25(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, BOK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOK should exceed 55.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 60.43(Average Objective).
July Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BON2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 51.72(Prev Close), the market ended February at 54.87(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 51.67(Month Low) to 55.65(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, BON went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BON should exceed 55.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 60.85(Average Objective).
May Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMK2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 321.30(Prev Close), the market ended February at 352.90(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 318.90(Month Low) to 354.20(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SMK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMK should exceed 354.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 392.92(Average Objective).
July Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMN2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 323.90(Prev Close), the market ended February at 353.60(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 321.80(Month Low) to 354.80(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SMN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMN should exceed 354.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 390.72(Average Objective).
May Wheat(KCBT): The KWK2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 723.75(Prev Close), the market ended February at 708.50(Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 673.00(Month Low) to 742.25(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, KWK went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should penetrate 673.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 633.30(Average Objective).
July Wheat(KCBT): The KWN2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 731.50(Prev Close), the market ended February at 717.00(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 680.75(Month Low) to 750.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, KWN went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWN should penetrate 680.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 643.15(Average Objective).
May Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRK2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 14.28(Prev Close), the market ended February at 14.46(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 13.78(Month Low) to 14.74(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, RRK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRK should exceed 14.74(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 16.82(Average Objective).
July Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRN2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 14.54(Prev Close), the market ended February at 14.72(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 14.08(Month Low) to 14.95(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed higher in February than January in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, RRN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRN should exceed 14.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 17.01(Average Objective).
August Live Cattle(CME): The LCQ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 129.275(Prev Close), the market ended February at 129.680(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 128.000(Month Low) to 130.680(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, LCQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should exceed 130.680(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 137.507(Average Objective).
July Lean Hogs(CME): The LEN2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 98.600(Prev Close), the market ended February at 99.100(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 97.750(Month Low) to 100.585(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LEN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEN should exceed 100.585(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 108.851(Average Objective).
October Sugar #11(ICE): The SBV2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 23.03(Prev Close), the market ended February at 24.41(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 22.83(Month Low) to 24.69(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SBV went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should exceed 24.69(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 27.40(Average Objective).
September Cocoa(ICE): The CCU2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 2369(Prev Close), the market ended February at 2367(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 2191(Month Low) to 2480(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CCU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCU should penetrate 2191(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1966(Average Objective).
May Cotton(ICE): The CTK2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 94.51(Prev Close), the market ended February at 90.44(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 89.01(Month Low) to 98.56(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CTK went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTK should penetrate 89.01(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 82.53(Average Objective).
July Cotton(ICE): The CTN2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 95.61(Prev Close), the market ended February at 91.87(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 90.29(Month Low) to 99.70(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CTN went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTN should penetrate 90.29(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 84.04(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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